FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Conference Championships (1/24)
We have finally arrived at the Conference Championships with a pair of truly marquee matchups. Both games have tight Vegas lines and totals over 50 points, which is everything you want in the Championship round and DFS. As I mentioned last week, on a small two-game slate, touchdowns are king, so jam in as much touchdown equity as possible into your cash game lineup and take some calculated pivots in GPPs.
Cash Game Core
Josh Allen (QB – BUF): $8,500
All four quarterbacks have their merits to be used. However, I believe that Allen has the highest floor and upside combination as the most mobile quarterback of the bunch and the most likely to steal a rushing touchdown. Yet, he is just the third-highest priced option on FanDuel, which lets us squeeze out a few extra bucks for the backend of our lineup.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs allowed multiple touchdown passes in eight straight games to end the regular season, although they did limit Baker Mayfield to one through the air last week. They also allowed five 300+ yards through the air in five of those last eight regular-season matchups. As evidenced by last week, the Bills are not shy about turning Allen loose to pass the ball on nearly every play.
Davante Adams (WR – GB): $8,900
Look for Adams to have the Buccaneers’ defensive backs on skates while playing in the cold and likely snow at Green Bay on Sunday. Adams’ sharp route running will be even more magnified if there are slippery conditions, and we know he will get plenty of looks from Aaron Rodgers, including near the end zone.
Adams was limited to just six grabs for 61 yards without a score in the previous meeting against the Buccaneers. However, that was also the first game back for Adams after an early-season injury, so I wouldn’t put much stock in that performance. Adams is probably the surest thing on the slate, so make sure he is in almost all of your lineups.
Tyreek Hill (WR – KC): $8,400
The question rages on for another week, which Chiefs pass-catcher do you start, Hill or Travis Kelce? This weekend I’ll give the edge to Hill. While Kelce is always a good play, there are more cheap tight ends than wide receivers that I trust to be productive and potentially find the end zone. As such, I’m more willing to pay up for Hill, who should mostly avoid coverage from the Bills’ top cornerback, Tre’Davious White, who doesn’t often travel into the slot, which is where Hill runs most of his routes.
Hill was quiet in the Chiefs’ Week 6 meeting with the Bills with just three catches for 20 yards, but exploded down the stretch and has bigger upside potential than Kelce, which is what I want on a small two-game slate, even in cash games. The status of Patrick Mahomes doesn’t change my interest in Hill.
Rob Gronkowski (TE – TB): $5,200
I know, Gronkowski hasn’t done much in the first two playoff games and has been outproduced by teammate Cameron Brate. However, it hasn’t been from a lack of opportunities. Last week Gronkowski had five targets, with three of them coming in the red zone. Nothing against Brate, but who do you think Brady will trust in the red zone while playing the cold and snow with a shot at the Super Bowl on the line, Gronkowski. And like I said in the intro, touchdowns are king. I’m also not against using a tight end in the flex spot this week.
Other Cash Options
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC): $6,200
- Darrel Williams (RB – KC): $6,000
- Devin Singletary (RB – BUF): $5,800
- Ronald Jones (RB – TB): $5,600
- Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF): $8,300
- Chris Godwin (WR – TB): $6,800
- Robert Tonyan (TE – GB): $5,700
GPP Stacking Options
Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): $8,700
Aaron Jones (RB – GB): $8,000
It is difficult to get unique on a small two-game slate, making it a perfect time to go with an unconventional QB/RB stack. Both Rodgers and Jones will likely carry plenty of ownership individually on Sunday, but pairing them together in the same lineup should occur infrequently.
You know by now that the Buccaneers have a strong run defense, but they have been susceptible to pass-catching backs this season, allowing a league-high 6.3 receptions per game. Jones is one of the top two playmakers on the Packers, so expect the coaching staff to find creative ways to get the ball to Jones through the air. Getting just one Rodgers to Jones touchdown through the air could help catapult you past your GPP foes who only have one or the other of the duo.
- Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): $9,000
- Leonard Fournette (RB – TB): $7,200
- Jamaal Williams (RB – GB): $5,000
- Mike Evans (WR – TB): 6,600
- Cole Beasley (WR – BUF): $5,700
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – GB): $5,500
- Sammy Watkins (WR – KC): $5,400
- Travis Kelce (TE – KC): $8,600
- Dawson Knox (TE – BUF): $4,700
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