FanDuel Projected Roster Percentage: Week 17 (2020)
Welcome to 2021! With last year in the books, it’s time to make resolutions (and stick to them)! If you’re hoping to get move involved with DFS this year, then checking out projected roster percentage data is a fantastic place to start.
Each week, I’ll break down the projected player roster percentages at the top DFS sites. These figures are generated based on numbers pulled from full-slate contests, so they won’t be perfectly accurate, but they give us a good measurement of who’s popular.
Deshaun Watson is chalk this week. You should bet on him in cash leagues and against him in tournaments. The Texans have an interesting matchup with the Titans, who give up the fourth-most FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) to opposing quarterbacks (21.8), and they’ll need to score in bunches to keep up with Tennessee’s offense. These two teams combined for 78 points back in Week 6, a game in which Watson threw four touchdown passes.
Only three players qualified for the 10-20% range: Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Lamar Jackson. Of the trio, Cousins has the best matchup. He’ll play the Detroit Lions, who give up the most FDPPG to quarterbacks (23.5). They’ve also looked awful lately. They’ve given up at least 30 points to their opponents in five-straight games, and they’ve allowed 45-plus points in their last two. Cousins will also have to do most of Minnesota’s scoring with Dalvin Cook sidelined.
The other two plays, Jackson and Rodgers, are too close in salary to Watson for me to target them. If you want a chalky, big-name quarterback, go with Watson; otherwise, pivot to a more contrarian option like Cousins or Baker Mayfield ($7,000).
Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End
Would you look at that. We’ve got two more clear chalk plays this week: Jonathan Taylor and Alexander Mattison. Both are primed for big performances, as their opponents give up the fourth-most and the most FDPPG to opposing rushers, respectively. That said, Nyheim Hines could end up getting some of Taylor’s touchdowns; he scored a pair of them against the Jaguars earlier in the year.
Meanwhile, Mattison is absolutely worth his salary, but remember that he busted when thrust into the starting role back in Week 6.
The rest of the popular running backs include Ezekiel Elliott, D’Andre Swift, Myles Gaskin, Ty Johnson, David Montgomery, Jeff Wilson, Chris Carson, Malcolm Brown, and Melvin Gordon. Before I get into those names, I would like to mention that Derrick Henry ($10,200) is not listed here. Yes, he’ll come with a huge cap hit, but he’ll also face the team that’s allowed the second-most rushing yards all season. He should be closer to chalk than he is.
But of those players who did make the list, I’m most interested in Montgomery and Wilson. Montgomery has looked fantastic for the Bears recently, and the Packers have struggled against the run all season. They give up the fifth-most FDPPG to opposing rushers (24.2), too. While Wilson doesn’t have as easy of a matchup, his low-end salary and San Francisco’s unstable situation at quarterback combine to ensure that he’ll get plenty of usage on Sunday.
There’s no clear chalk at wide receiver or tight end; a handful of wide receivers fell into the 10-20% range while no tight ends met the required threshold. Of those who made it, Sterling Shepard and Brandin Cooks seem like strong value plays at their respective salaries. Their opponents give up the fifth-most and fourth-most FDPPG to wide receivers, respectively, and you can get them without burning too much cap space.
The Seahawks’ defense currently looks like the most popular play on this weekend’s FanDuel slate. While they were notoriously terrible earlier in the year, Seattle’s defense hasn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 17 points over the last five weeks. They should be a safe start against a sputtering 49ers team led by C.J. Beathard.
Three betting favorites crack the list in the 5-10% range. Both the Ravens and Colts have significant betting advantages; the Ravens are 13.5-point favorites while the Colts have a 14-point advantage. They should utterly decimate their low-quality divisional opposition as they seek to lock down playoff berths. The Raiders are also favored, but their 2.5-point advantage is much smaller. That said, they’re not a bad punt play if you’re spending down at defense.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.