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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (2/12)

Feb 12, 2021

Rudy Gobert is essentially locked-in for a double-double every game.

Happy Friday, everyone! The weekend is here, and I can’t think of a better way to get it started than a massive 11-game NBA slate. Nearly three-quarters of the association in action tonight, so we’re faced with lots of choices when choosing studs, finding values, and deciding who to fade. Let’s dive in. 

Check out today’s NBA Tip Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

As of this writing, there aren’t tons of low-salary value to be had tonight. That’s bound to change as we near tipoff and get injury news. Specifically, monitor the Magic, Thunder, and Pistons, who are all dealing with various injuries to key players. Most of the values I’ve listed below are players that should come with a safe floor and won’t bust your lineups. They should be in line for solid minutes in close, high-scoring games. You can see the full list of expected point totals, along with point spreads, by checking out BettingPros.

Rudy Gobert (UTH) $7,500:
This slate is so loaded with stud centers that $7,500 definitely feels like a value for Gobert, especially since he’s averaged 41.5 DK points over his last three games. He’s essentially locked-in for a double-double every game, and tonight’s could be big in what’s projected as a competitive matchup with the Bucks. 

Kyle Kuzma (LAL) $5,700:
Kuzma’s value relies on Anthony Davis’s status, so if you get him in your lineup, make sure to slot him in the F or UTIL spot so you can late-swap if needed. He’s topped 30 DK points in the past two games while Davis sat and should be in line for similar, if not better, production against a bottom-ten defensive team in the Grizzlies.

Lou Williams (LAC) $5,800:
Sweet Lou has been known to go on hot streaks, and he’s been absolutely on fire lately. He’s averaged 38 DK points over his past three games while Paul George has been out. George is sitting again tonight, and while Williams will still come off the bench, he’ll continue picking up some of the slack.

Darius Garland (CLE) $5,700:
Garland didn’t do much his last time out, playing limited minutes as the Cavs got blown out by Denver. It’s projected to be a closer game tonight in Portland, and Garland should play his full allotment of minutes against a Blazers team that gives up the most DK points to the position. He should easily be back over 30 DK points, with the potential to go even higher. 

Donte DiVincenzo (MIL) $5,400:
Divincenzo isn’t likely to erupt, but he’s locked into minutes and has seen a slight uptick in play with Jrue Holiday sidelined due to the league’s health and safety protocols. He’s topped 35 DK points in two of his last three games and has a shot to again tonight.

Derrick Rose (NYK) $5,300:
After being traded to the Knicks, Rose saw his first action since January 30 on Tuesday. He put up over 23 DK points in just 20 minutes of play in his Knicks debut. He could see his role and minutes increase tonight in a good spot against the Wizards, who play at the fastest pace in the NBA.

Derrick White (SAS) $5,200:
White had a rough shooting night on the court last time, then sat out Tuesday’s game for rest. He should re-enter the starting lineup tonight against Atlanta, a team that gives up the third-most DK points to point guards on the season. He averaged nearly 28 DK points over his two games before the dud and should be back in, or above, that range tonight.

Danilo Gallinari (ATL) $4,800:
Gallinari has been slowly working his way back to full speed over the past few weeks and finally saw his minutes limit raised to 30 minutes last time out. He should see all the minutes he can handle in a high scoring contest with the Spurs tonight and comes with a safe floor, albeit a limited ceiling.

Dorian Finney-Smith (DAL)
$4,500: DFS doesn’t come with much of a fantasy ceiling either, but he’s essentially locked into 20-25 DK points every night. He isn’t an exciting play, but he’s exactly the kind of player to round out your lineup if you find yourself with around $4,500 to spend on your last roster spot.

Deni Avdija (WAS) $3,900:
Bradley Beal has already been ruled out for tonight, and the last time he sat, Avdija exploded for 40 DK points. It may be unreasonable to expect 10x from him tonight, but Beal’s absence opens up significant usage. 25+ DK points, or 6x value, is certainly in play.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $10,800: As usual, Giannis is one of the most expensive plays on the slate. He should play big minutes tonight if the game in Utah is as competitive as it’s expected to be. Dating back to last season, he’s averaged 38 real points and nearly 12 rebounds over his last three matchups against the Jazz.
  • LeBron James (LAL) $10,100: If you can’t find the salary space to pay up for Antetokounmpo, James is my next favorite stud. It sounds like Anthony Davis wants to be careful with his nagging Achilles, so there’s a good chance he sits or is limited, opening the opportunity for another monster game from LeBron against a Memphis team that will have no way of slowing him down.  
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): $9,300: It feels good to be able to recommend Towns now that he’s returned from a 13-game COVID absence. He didn’t show any apparent setbacks in his first game back on Wednesday and should be ready for a full workload against the Hornets, who won’t have anybody to slow him down tonight.
  • Russell Westbrook (WAS): $9,000: With Bradley Beal sitting this one out, Westbrook has a strong chance to notch his sixth triple-double of the season in his sixteenth start.
  • Donavan Mitchell (UTH): $8,200: I’ve already mentioned several players to target from the Bucks-Jazz matchup tonight, but Mitchell might be the best. He’s averaged nearly 60 DK points over his last two games with Mike Conley sitting out but has barely seen a salary bump. Conley is out again, so expect another big performance from Mitchell. 

Notable Players to Fade

  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,700: As of this writing, Denver is the biggest favorite on the slate at -12 against the depleted Thunder. There’s a real chance of a blowout here, just like Wednesday when Joker put up just 42 DK points.
  • Damien Lillard (POR) $9,800: Lillard can explode on any given night, but I’m not expecting it tonight on the second half of a back-to-back after a hard-fought battle with the 76ers last night.
  • LaMelo Ball (CHA) $8,600: As fun as LeMelo has been to play over the past week, his salary has finally gotten too expensive, especially if Devonte’ Graham finally makes his return to the court.

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Aaron Larson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @aalarson.

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