DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (2/19)
Happy Friday, everyone! Friday’s are always larger slates, and tonight is no exception with nine games on the schedule. As usual with these larger slates, it’s going to be vital to find some value and select the right studs. Let’s dive right in.
Most Value Per Dollar
I love how much value there is to be had on the slate tonight, especially at the guard positions. We also have a handful of SG/SF combo value plays that will really allow you to mix and match as you build lineups. The options listed in the table below are the players I expect to give you the most bang for your buck. All of these players come with salaries below $7,500, including three options under $4,000 that can really open up some space for you to pay up in other spots. While it’s always smart to target high-scoring, close games, as of this writing, not all of the point spreads and totals have been posted. You can see the full updated list of expected point totals, along with point spreads, anytime by checking out BettingPros.
Clint Capela (ATL) $7,200:
There are plenty of stud centers to choose from on a slate of this size, but Capela has the potential to pay off as the best value tonight. He’s topped 43 DK points in three consecutive games, yet for some reason, his salary continues trending downward. Not only does his near-guaranteed double-double give him a safe floor, but his shot-blocking ability also gives him a ceiling as high as any other center on the slate.
Kemba Walker (BOS) $6,500:
After sitting out the second half of a back-to-back set earlier in the week, Walker should be locked in for 30 minutes of play tonight against Atlanta. He’s averaged a solid 28.7% usage rate this season, which bodes well for his fantasy output considering the Hawks have given up the third-most DK points to point guards so far this season.
Anthony Edwards (MIN) $6,000:
Edwards is coming off a stinker his last time out, but I expect him to find his shot again tonight. Prior to the dud on Wednesday, the top pick from this year’s NBA draft averaged over 39 DK points/game over his previous three. He’s getting all the minutes he can handle and hoisting up shots at a steady rate, which should translate to a strong fantasy outing for the rookie against Toronto tonight.
Saddiq Bey (DET) $5,600:
Another rookie worth considering tonight, Bey has stepped into the starting lineup the past two games for the Pistons as they try to figure out what to do with Blake Griffin. Over those games, he’s averaged 35 minutes and over 32 DK points, and that doesn’t include the 50 DK points he dropped in just 27 minutes a week ago. It’s hard to imagine him falling short of the 30 DK points tonight against Memphis, with a far higher ceiling.
Michael Carter-Williams (ORL) $5,100:
Carter-Williams returned for the injury-plagued Magic a week ago and immediately dropped 39 DK points against the Kings. He followed that up with disappointing outings against the Suns and Knicks, literally the two slowest-paced teams in the NBA. He should be in store for a better fantasy outing tonight against Golden State, the second fastest-paced team in the league.
Cedi Osman (CLE) $4,800:
Osman found his way back to fantasy relevance this week, primarily due to Cleveland’s lack of options in the frontcourt. He replaced the injured Taurean Prince in the starting lineup last time out and recorded 38.5 DK points on the back of a double-double. You can expect more of the same tonight with Prince already ruled out again. Even though he saw a massive $1,500 salary hike, hitting 6x value would still only take a very attainable 29 DK points.
Theo Maledon (OKC) $4,700:
In his second game back from his health and safety protocol absence earlier this week, Maledon played 34 minutes and put up nearly 28 DK points. Apparently, that caused his salary to dip below $5,000. He has a nice matchup with the fast-paced Bucks, who will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and will likely still be without Jrue Holiday’s strong defensive presence in the backcourt.
Willy Hernangomez (NO) $3,900:
While he hasn’t been ruled out as of this writing, Steven Adams seems unlikely to play for the Pelicans tonight with an ankle injury. Hernangomez was the biggest beneficiary when Adams left early Wednesday, racking up nearly 34 DK points. If Adams is indeed ruled out, Hernangomez could be the biggest value on tonight’s slate.
Desmond Bane (MEM) $3,800:
Bane has been away from the Grizzlies for the past four games for personal reasons but isn’t listed on the team’s injury report ahead of tonight’s matchup with Detroit. He averaged 23.5 DK points over his previous five games before his absence, which may not seem like much but is over 6x value on his bargain salary.
Semi Ojeleye (BOS) $3,500:
Ojeleye has started the past five games for Boston, and over that span, he’s averaged nearly 28 minutes/game and topped 20 DK points three times. He’s from a guarantee, but against the Hawks, a bottom-ten defensive team, he could easily top the 21 DK points it will for him to hit 6x value.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,800: Embiid has topped 50 DK points in eight of his last ten games, including two 60+ DK point performances. He should be in for another big night in a matchup with the Bulls that features two of the top-six-paced teams in the league.
- Zach LaVine (CHI) $9,300: LaVine stands to benefit from the same fast-paced matchup as Embiid. In fact, he comes with just as high of a ceiling at $1,500 cheaper.
- Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) $9,200: Towns appears to be rounding back into form after his lengthy COVID absence. He just topped 50 DK points for the first time since January in his last outing, something that he’s accustomed to when healthy. I don’t expect his salary to stay under $10,000 much longer, so take advantage of it while you can.
- Zion Williamson (NO) $8,400: You’d be hard-pressed to find a better fantasy player than Williamson lately. Over the past week, he’s averaged nearly 50 DK points/game, and his salary is still well below $9,000. I’m going to continue playing him until his salary gets inflated or he finally has a down game.
- Fred VanVleet (TOR) $7,800: His backcourt mate Kyle Lowry has already been ruled out for tonight’s game against Minnesota, and I’m surprised his salary didn’t go up given the news. VanVleet has a tendency to go off when Lowry’s out, and while his production has been up and down the past few weeks, it’s hard to find a player with a legit 50 DK point upside priced under $8,000.
Notable Players to Fade
- Stephen Curry (GS) $10,100: Curry is always capable of breaking the slate on a given night, but there are lots of strong value plays at point guard tonight. I’d rather take that positional value and allocate the extra salary space to pay up for a stud or two at other positions.
- Nikola Vucevic (ORL) $9,900: Tonight’s slate is loaded with top-tier centers, and, given his salary, Vucevic is my least favorite. I’d rather pay up a bit for Jokic or Giannis or spend down for KAT or Capela than dish out almost $10,000 for Vucevic tonight.
- Donovan Mitchell (UTA) $8,300: Mitchell is always tough to pin down. He’s coming off a 52 DK point outing on Wednesday but only put up 35 DK points in the previous two games. I’d prefer to look elsewhere tonight, especially if Mike Conley is able to get back on the floor for the Jazz.
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