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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (2/26)

Feb 25, 2021

Wendell Carter Jr. could top 7x value for the third game in a row.

Happy Friday, everyone! Once again, we have nine games on the schedule for this Friday night of NBA hoops. As usual with these larger slates, it’s going to be vital to find some value and select the right studs. Let’s dive right in. 

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

Despite the larger slate tonight, there aren’t any games that really stick out as of this writing. You can see the full updated list of expected point totals, along with point spreads, anytime by checking out BettingPros. When looking for value on this slate, it comes down to the players that have been on unexpected hot streaks or that could be given extra opportunities. The slate is relatively thin in the frontcourt, while there’s plenty of value to be had with point guards tonight.

Deandre Ayton (PHO) $6,800
Ayton hasn’t exactly dominated this season, but he’s topped 33 DK points in back-to-back games. That’s right in line with his salary tonight, and the fact that he plays Chicago, a fast-paced team that’s given up the third-most DK points to centers over the last seven games, should give him a boost. He has an ultra-safe floor and a ceiling that makes him an intriguing tournament play.

Kemba Walker (BOS) $6,200
Kemba made an appearance in this article a week ago and proceeded to drop 52 DK points against the Hawks. That kind of explosion shouldn’t be the expectation, but it is within the realm of possibilities. Realistically, he should be in line for a full workload against the Pacers after resting earlier in the week and can safely be inserted into lineups with confidence.

Wendell Carter Jr. (CHI) $5,900
Chicago’s third-year center has only topped 40 DK points three times this season, but two of those performances have come in the past two games. There’s inherent risk involved tonight against the slow-paced Suns, but if Carter can keep his hot streak going, he could top 7x value for the third game in a row.

Harrison Barnes (SAC) $5,500
This is literally the lowest Barnes’ salary has been since the first game of the season. He’s played at least 36 minutes in back-to-back games and is coming off a 42 DK point night, so I’m not sure exactly why his cost is cratering. It will only take 38.5 DK points to hit 7x value, something that’s well within range for Barnes against Detroit. 

Isaiah Roby (OKC) $4,900
With Al Horford already ruled out, Roby is probably the chalk of the night. That isn’t necessarily bad; Roby has averaged over 26 DK points when starting this year, good for over 5x of his salary. That probably won’t get it done in GPP tournaments, but he should be a staple of cash game lineups tonight. 

Luguentz Dort (OKC) $4,800
Dort is another Thunder player that should be in line for a solid Friday night. He’s practically guaranteed 30+ minutes every night, and with Hamidou Diallo already ruled out, Dort could be primed for more usage against a Hawks team that’s been bottom-eight against both shooting guards and small forwards over the past seven games.

Dennis Smith Jr. (DET) $4,700
Smith burned a lot of DFS players when he drew his first start in place of Delon Wright back on Sunday, but he’s actually been quite good in his two games since, averaging nearly 29 DK points in his last two outings. Now he gets a matchup against a Sacramento team with the worst defensive rating in the entire association. Put him down for at least 6x value tonight.

Theo Maledon (OKC) $4,500
Maledon is the third member of the Thunder to be brought up tonight. The rookie point guard will continue to start, and while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (more on him later) will soak up most of OKC’s usage, Maledon should play plenty of minutes and come with a safe floor in a high-paced matchup with Atlanta.

Saben Lee (DET) $4,300
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve probably noticed that Saban Lee has been tearing it up for the Pistons. He’s averaged nearly 31 DK points over the past three games since entering the backcourt rotation, and I wouldn’t expect anything less against the lowly Kings defense tonight.  

Talen Horton-Tucker (LAL) $3,600
Horten-Tucker entered the starting lineup Wednesday and immediately registered over 21 DK points. That came in a game where Kyle Kuzma still played 25 minutes. THT is a solid play regardless, but if the questionable Kuzma is ruled out, he becomes arguably the best value of the night.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • LeBron James (LAL) $10,700: Don’t let his down game against Utah fool you. LeBron is still one of the best plays every night, especially with Anthony Davis sidelined for the foreseeable future. Pencil him in for a strong outing tonight in what should be a high-scoring matchup with the Blazers. 
  • Domantas Sabonis (IND) $10,400: Sabonis may be the most egregious of All-Star snubs, and he could be looking to make a point of it tonight against Boston. He’s put up at least 52 DK points in three straight games and showed his ceiling with a ridiculous 82 DK point outing sandwiched in between. On a rare slate void of big-name centers, Sabonis is easily the best big man to play tonight.
  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $9,700: I’m not sure why Curry dropped under $10,000 salary tonight, but I’m willing to take advantage of it. His ridiculous upside makes him a great tournament option tonight against Charlotte.
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): $8,800: SGA has averaged 51 DK points over his last three games. The Thunder offense runs through him, and that should yield another strong outing tonight against an Atlanta team that ranks in the bottom ten when it comes to defensive rating.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $9,400: Butler has been fantastic lately, but his salary keeps rising. The Heat are getting back to full strength with the return of Goran Dragic and potentially Tyler Herro. Now they take on a Utah team with the second-best defensive rating in the NBA. I’ll pass on Butler at his $9,400 salary tonight.
  • LaMelo Ball (CHA) $8,700: The youngest Ball brother hasn’t topped 5x value in his past three outings. The matchup isn’t bad tonight but I can’t get behind LaMelo at his inflated salary.
  • John Wall (HOU) $8,200: Wall has underperformed recently and I’m not expecting it to turn around tonight. He’s only averaged 31.5 DK points over his last two games; far from paying off value at his salary tonight.

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Aaron Larson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @aalarson.

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