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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (2/5)

Feb 5, 2021

Lonzo Ball has averaged 34.6 DK points over his last four games.

Happy Friday, everyone! What better way to kick off Super Bowl weekend than to play some NBA DFS? We have a typically large slate this Friday night with nine games and 18 teams to choose from. Let’s dive in.

Check out today’s NBA Tip Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

As of this writing, six of the nine games on tonight’s slate have expected point totals over 220 points, so once again, there will be plenty of fantasy points to go around. The most fantasy-friendly matchup of the night figures to be the showdown between Toronto and Brooklyn, a game with a projected point total north of 240 points. You can see the full list of expected point totals, along with point spreads, by checking out BettingPros.

As always, there’s going to be plenty of injury news to monitor leading up to tipoff. The good news is only one team, the Utah Jazz, are playing in the second half of a back-to-back set. We do know that at least one team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, will be short-handed tonight. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexender, George Hill, and Lugentz Dort already ruled out, there will be plenty of value to take advantage of against one of the worst defensive teams in Minnesota. My favorite strategy tonight will be to load my lineups with studs from the Brooklyn-Toronto matchup and fill in the gaps with value from the Thunder.

The most bang for your buck tonight lies in the $5,000-$6,000 salary range, and that’s where we’ll focus most of our attention in the value section. Most of that value comes in the backcourt, with fewer budgets to be found with power forwards and centers. Below is a list of the top-10 players of the night expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. 

Evan Fournier (ORL) $6,200:
Orlando is short on ball handlers with Markelle Fultz, Michael Carter-Williams, and now Aaron Gordon out for an extended time. Fournier and Cole Anthony (more on him later) are basically the only two ball-handlers left. Fournier put up over 34 DK points on Wednesday in the first game without Gordon, and for some reason, his salary was reduced to $6,200 tonight in a pace-up spot against Chicago, a team with a bottom-ten defensive rating.   

Lonzo Ball (NO) $5,900:
The eldest Ball brother is slowly seeing his salary increase but anything under $6,000 still seems too low. He’s averaged 34.6 DK points over his last four games, nearly 6x value on his salary tonight. There’s no reason to think he won’t get there in what’s projected to be a close, high scoring matchup with the Pacers. 

Cole Anthony (ORL) $5,700:
As mentioned earlier when discussing Fournier, the Magic don’t have many options to distribute the ball tonight. Anthony is the only true point guard left on the team to see significant time on the court this season, and he’ll get all the minutes he can handle tonight against the Bulls, who have given up the fourth-most DK points to point guards on average so far this season.

Darius Garland (CLE) $5,800:
Garland missed a good chunk of January with a shoulder injury but looks to be back to full strength. The second-year point guard has averaged nearly 33 minutes on the floor over his past five and has averaged over 36 DK points/game during that span. It shouldn’t be tough for him to top that tonight, which would work out to over 6x value on his $5,800 salary.

Rui Hachimura (WAS) $5,400:
Hachimura missed most of January due to COVID protocols, but since returning on January 29, he’s seen his minutes increase in every game. He’s topped 30 DK points in each of his last two games and should continue to be the most productive member of the Wizards frontcourt. That bodes well tonight against the Heat, who give up the fifth-most DK points on average to power forwards this season.

Miles Bridges (CHA) $5,400:
Bridges drew his first start of the season Wednesday night and turned it into a season-high 32.75 DK points. The matchup isn’t ideal against Utah tonight, and his price was bumped up a bit, but he could still hit 5x value relatively easily in the starting role.

Hamidou Diallo (OKC) $5,200:
Welcome to the Oklahoma City portion of the article. As mentioned in the introduction, the Thunder will be short-handed again tonight. He went for 31.75 DK points in his first start of the season Wednesday against Houston and now should draw another start against a worse defensive team in Minnesota tonight. He’s just one of several Thunder players that should top 5x value with ease tonight. 

Theo Maledon (OKC) $5,000:
Maledon played a season-high 36 minutes on Wednesday and should be in for a heavy workload again tonight with SGA, HIll, and Dort all out. He’ll run the point against a Timberwolves team with the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA.  

Kenrich Williams (OKC) $3,500:
Of all the players to benefit from the injuries on OKC, Williams may benefit the most. He’s been a minimum salary player most of the season but put up over 30 DK points in his extended run Wednesday against Houston. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him hit 7x value or more tonight against the Timberwolves.

Frank Kaminsky (PHO) $3,400:
Kaminsky, the former lottery pick, has averaged over 25 DK points over his last four games. That’s an incredible value for a player with a sub-$4,000 salary. He may see even more usage with Jae Crowder listed as doubtful for the game tonight.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $10,800: The Greek Freak has been on a tear lately. He’s topped 60 DK points in four of his last five games, with the only exception being the blowout against Portland earlier this week when he only played 26 minutes. The blowout risk is still present tonight against the Cavs, but if Cleveland keeps it close, Giannis will be well worth the highest salary on the slate.
  • Bam Adebayo (MIA) $9,200: Bam has been a model of consistency lately, scoring between 42 and 46 DK points in four straight games. The Wizards don’t have a defensive answer for him in the front court, and he should be a staple of cash game lineups on tonight’s slate.
  • Kyrie Irving (BKN) $9,100: Any of the big three from the Nets are good plays tonight, but I’ll take the cheapest of the bunch with Irving. He’s averaged 47+ DK points over the past four games, including just over 56 DK points against the Clippers his last time out. He should be good for at least 45 DK points against the Raptors tonight in what looks to be another high-scoring game.
  • Domantas Sabonis (IND) $8,600: I’m not sure what it will take to get Sabonis over $9,000, but I’m willing to take advantage of the misprice while it lasts. He’s basically hit 60 DK points in each of his last two games, nearly 7x value on his salary tonight. 
  • Pascal Siakam (TO) $7,600: Siakam has been up and down lately, but tonight he takes on a Brooklyn team that appears to have zero interest in playing any kind of defense. The Nets are a top-five matchup for both power forwards and centers, so we can expect a strong outing for Siakam in the high-scoring affair tonight.

Notable Players to Fade

  • James Harden (BKN) $10,600: Harden has been on fire lately, but hear me out. He’s still the most expensive of the big three Nets and is likely to be highly rostered given how well he’s played lately. I’d prefer to take the risk and be lower than the field on Harden on the chance that he comes back down to earth a bit tonight.  
  • Jayson Tatum (BOS) $8,900: I’ll admit that it’s tough to fade a player that’s been as good as Tatum lately, but he has a brutal matchup tonight. The Clippers give up the fewest DK points to power forwards and the second-fewest to small forwards. Expect Kawhi Leonard to lock onto Tatum tonight and seriously hamper his upside.
  • Andre Drummond (CLE) $8,200: The low salary is tempting, but knowing that Drummond’s range of outcomes includes fewer than 25 DK points is keeping me away from him on a slate this large.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Aaron Larson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @aalarson.

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