DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Sunday (2/28)
Tonight’s eight-game slate at DraftKings just got a game shorter. The Bulls and Raptors won’t play today due to contact tracing, so we’ll have a more condensed slate for the last Sunday of action before the All-Star Game.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Sunday’s DraftKings slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary, ranked in order of how much they’ll cost you.
Two games have projected point totals above 230 tonight: BOS/WAS and CHA/SAC. I like to feature players in high-scoring games, so expect to see a handful of them below. Note that one contest, NYK/DET, has a total below 215. That means I’m almost entirely avoiding players in that game, especially because the Knicks are on a back-to-back.
Injuries shouldn’t be a huge factor on tonight’s slate. Trae Young is questionable, but he played through the same injury on Friday, so I suspect that he’ll go again tonight. Likewise, Jaylen Brown is also questionable with an injury he already played through. However, the Wizards, T’Wolves, and Knicks are all on the wrong ends of back-to-backs, and that could lead to some surprise scratches. Make sure to keep an eye on our player news section for further updates as tip-off approaches.
Jonas Valanciunas (MEM) $7,400
The Rockets are a team to exploit with opposing centers until Christian Wood gets back. They allow their opponents to nab the most rebounds per game, and Valanciunas should continue to hit value this evening — he hit 5x value against this price in his last two games, both against the Clippers. This game’s total is the slate’s fourth-highest, too.
Ja Morant (MEM) $7,200
I really don’t have much faith in Houston. Fellow point guard Kyle Lowry posted a triple-double against them on Friday, and he needed only 33 minutes of playing time to do so. Look for Morant to at least double-double against the Rockets tonight.
Deandre Ayton (PHO) $7,000
This play is quite simple. The T’Wolves, even with Karl-Anthony Towns back in the lineup, surrender the most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to centers. They just fell to the Wizards last night, too, so Minnesota may opt to rest a player or two here. That opens the door for Ayton to hit value tonight.
Kemba Walker (BOS) $6,800
The Wizards give up the sixth-most DKPPG to opposing point guards. Walker is coming into this game with plenty of momentum, too, as he just dropped 48.3 DK points (7.1x value against this price) on Friday. Walker is a high-ceiling play here, especially if Brown’s injury continues to limit his effectiveness.
Marvin Bagley III (SAC) $6,200
The Hornets have struggled against power forwards. They allow the most DKPPG to the position, and that’s a great sign for Bagley’s value tonight. His price isn’t particularly high; he hit 5x value against it when he last took the court, and he should post a boatload of points in what’s projected to be the night’s highest-scoring game.
Buddy Hield (SAC) $6,100
Let’s throw another King into the mix. The Hornets surrender the third-most made threes per game, and they give up the third-most DKPPG to shooting guards, too. Look for Hield to get hot from deep as the Kings try to keep up in this one.
R.J. Barrett (NYK) $5,900
The only player I’ll feature from the NYK/DET game, Barrett’s salary is just too low for me to ignore him completely. Barrett’s fantasy production has ticked back up along with his minutes; after a four-game stretch with below 30, he has played 30-plus in three of his last seven, and he hasn’t dipped below 25. He also hit 5x value against this price last night.
P.J. Washington (CHA) $5,900
Washington should have a good game against the Kings, as they have struggled against opposing bigs. They allow the 11th-most DKPPG to power forwards and the third-most to centers. With Cody Zeller still banged-up, Washington may get some more run at the five, where he has spent 48% of his minutes.
Jeff Teague (BOS) $3,500
I’ll end with two complete dart throws. Teague hit 5x value against this price on Friday, even with Walker back in the lineup, and he would stand to benefit should the Celtics blow out the Wizards tonight. He isn’t a bad bargain-bin play if Washington ends up resting Bradley Beal or Russell Westbrook tonight.
Justise Winslow (MEM) $3,400
The Grizzlies have been easing Winslow into their lineup, but he hit 5x value against this price on Thursday, and he has a fantastic matchup with the Rockets tonight. He could easily hit 5x value on his normal workload, but he is also fresher than most of his teammates, as the team held him out of Friday’s game.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- LeBron James (LAL) $10,800: It’s impossible to fade James with Anthony Davis still on the sidelines. The Lakers should be able to find more success on offense now that Dennis Schroder is back, too, and James should hit value in a competitive game with the Warriors tonight.
- Jayson Tatum (BOS) $9,100: This game should end with the night’s second-highest total, and with Brown banged-up, Tatum is an easy start for me here — especially since Washington allows the third-most DKPPG to small forwards.
- De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $8,600: Vegas expects to see a ton of points in this game tonight, and Fox should exploit Charlotte’s defense, which gives up the 12th-most DKPPG to point guards.
- Gordon Hayward (CHA) $7,400: Hayward is the cheapest of Charlotte’s stars, as Ball ($8,800) and Rozier ($7,900) will cost you quite a bit more. I would prefer to save the cap space and roll with Hayward tonight.
Notable Players to Fade
- Devin Booker (PHO) $8,000: This isn’t a great spot to fire up Booker. It could devolve into a blowout, and Booker hasn’t hit 5x value against this price in his last three outings.
- Jerami Grant (DET) $7,600: I don’t want to feature many Knicks or Pistons in what should be a slow, low-scoring game. Grant just happens to be Detroit’s most expensive player, so he’s a must-fade for me here.
- Kelly Oubre Jr. (GSW) $7,200: Oubre costs a bit much in his matchup against the Lakers’ strong defense. Los Angeles allows the fifth-fewest DKPPG to shooting guards and the third-fewest to small forwards, the two positions where Oubre sees most of his minutes.
- Anthony Edwards (MIN) $6,800: The rookie has certainly made amazing plays so far this year, but I don’t expect him to do much against Phoenix, as the Suns give up the fewest DKPPG to shooting guards and play at the league’s third-slowest pace.
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