DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Tuesday (2/2)
As you may know, I love shorter slates. That’s just what we have here, with six games on the docket. That’s the perfect amount for DFS because the player pool isn’t too big or too small. So, without further ado, let’s go ahead and get into it!
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Most Value Per Dollar
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
We could have some high-scoring games ahead of us. The Nets-Clippers and Trail Blazers-Wizards matchups have shootout written all over it, with both games having totals north of 230. That means you’re going to need a lot of exposure to those games, but the other ones aren’t too bad either.
If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $9,200:
Leonard is my favorite play of the day. We’ll discuss that more in the studs section later on.
Jeremy Lamb (IND) $5,400:
Lamb has been too good to remain this cheap. He’s scored at least 28 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, directly correlating with him moving into the starting lineup.
Kemba Walker (BOS) $6,700:
With Marcus Smart out, Walker should take on more playing time and ball-handling. That’s big news for a guy who’s already got a 28.6 percent usage rate and remains below $7,000.
Ja Morant (MEM) $7,500:
If you take out the game where Morant got injured and his first game back, Ja is averaging over 46 DK points per game. That’s absurd from someone below $8,000.
Robert Covington (POR) $5,200:
Covington has struggled this season, but he’s too good to be a $5,200 player. Scoring 26 DK points in his return from injury is a good start, and we love that he faces a Washington team that plays at the fastest pace in the league while owning the worst defense.
Xavier Tillman (MEM) $5,100:
Tillman will continue to start for Jonas Valanciunas, and we want to use him until JV comes back. Tillman is averaging 29 DK points per game across 24 minutes over his last four fixtures in this role.
Devis Bertans (WAS) $4,700:
Bertans has been struggling with his shot since returning, but a matchup with a 26th-ranked Portland defense is a good way to get this sharpshooter going. We love his upside at this price.
DeAndre Jordan (BKN) $4,900:
Jordan is averaging over 25 DK points per game since taking over starting center duties. That’s all you can ask for from someone below $5K.
Bojan Bogdanovic (UTH) $5,900:
Bojan is starting to find his stroke. He’s got 61 combined points on 62 percent shooting over the last two games. Imagine how good his fantasy output could be if he just adds some peripherals statistics.
Cole Anthony (ORL) $5,500:
With Aaron Gordon out, Anthony should be the primary ball-handler. That was already the case with Markelle Fultz injured, but we love how Anthony provided 16 points, five rebounds, and six assists in this matchup on Sunday.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Damian Lillard (POR) $10,700: It’s crazy just how special this guy can be. Scoring six points in the final 10 seconds on Saturday to overcome a five-point deficit shows just how absurd Dame Time is at times, and he’s single-handedly taking over this offense. With C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic out, Lillard has a usage rate approaching 40 percent. That’s led to him scoring at least 49 DraftKings points in six-straight games while averaging over 52 fantasy points per game in that span. Not to mention, he faces the fastest-paced team in the NBA here, who happens to own the worst defense as well.
- Bradley Beal (WAS) $9,900: Stacking Beal and Lillard against one another is probably the way to go. BB has actually scored at least 38 DK points in every game this season while averaging 54 DK points per game across his last nine outings. More importantly, he leads the league in usage in that span while averaging 36 minutes and 28.2 shots per game. Portland has a terrible defense as well.
- Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $9,200: Brooklyn has the worst defense in the NBA since trading for James Harden, and that should allow Kawhi to feast. Leonard has actually scored at least 52 DK points in eight of his last 15 games, and he should be extra hungry against James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving.
Notable Players to Fade
- Jerami Grant (DET) $7,000: Grant has been a breakout star this season, but regression is hitting a bit, and his price is a little too high for our taste. He’s only cracked 34 DK points once in his last five games, scoring just 51 combined DK points over his last two games. We hate that against a Top-3 Utah defense.
- Dillon Brooks (MEM) $5,800: With Morant back in action, Brooks is no longer the star on offense. He’s actually scored 26 or fewer fantasy points in four-straight games, averaging just 18 DK points per game in that span. That’s even more worrisome against a Top-10 Pacers defense, and it’s hard to understand why he’s still $5,800.
- Chris Boucher (TOR) $4,900: Boucher was the favorite for Most Improved Player two weeks ago, but he’s been terrible since then. In fact, he hasn’t scored more than 29 DK points in seven-straight games, averaging just 18 DK points per game in that span. Even worse last week, he averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game in just 15 minutes a night.
Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.