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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (2/20)

Feb 20, 2021

There are so many things working in Enes Kanter’s favor tonight.

After a big slate on Friday, we’re down to just five games here. The San Antonio-New York game was already canceled, and with the COVID craziness, it might not be the only one. We also had the Houston-Indiana game postponed as well. All of these things will need to be monitored, so keep your eyes and ears on the news up until the first tip!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

As you’re going to see, the center position is stacked on this slate. We have five of our 10 value plays coming from that position, so it’s going to be imperative to use two of them in your lineups. There are also two games with totals approaching 240. Those are the Chicago-Sacramento and Portland-Washington games. These are the ones to target, and there will be some monster stat lines from those two games.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Enes Kanter (POR) $6,900:
There are just so many things in Kanter’s favor here. Let’s start by talking about his form, averaging 33.3 DraftKings points per game across 30 minutes a night since taking over starting center duties. That’s no surprise from a guy who’s averaged about 1.3 DK points per minute for his career, and as long as he keeps playing 30-plus minutes, 40-plus fantasy points should be a regular thing. It’s all the more likely in a matchup like this, with Washington playing at the fastest pace in the NBA while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers. That was on full display when Enes had 15 points and 14 rebounds against them three weeks ago.

Hassan Whiteside (SAC) $4,800:
This is very risky, but Whiteside is one of the only guys who have legitimate 10X upside. We say that because he did that on Monday, generating 58 DK points across 24 minutes. Not many guys can provide fantasy points in such a short period of time, and injuries to Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes have opened up some extra minutes for Hassan. We love the matchup, too, with Chicago ranked 27th in total defense while playing at the NBA’s fourth-fastest pace.

Damian Lillard (POR) $10,600:
Lillard is the best play on the board, and we’ll go over that more later.

Kelly Oubre (GSW) $6,800:
Oubre was horrible in his first month with the Warriors, but he’s hit his stride recently. In fact, Oubre has at least 30 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games, averaging 35 DK points per game in that span. That means he’s too cheap below $7K, and we love that Charlotte owns a 22nd OPRK against opposing small forwards this year.

Wendell Carter Jr. (CHI) $5,100:
Carter missed nearly a month of action because of a quad issue, but he’s been good whenever he’s been in the lineup. He’s scored at least 22 fantasy points in 13 of his 16 games played this year, averaging 26 DK points per game since his return. More importantly, he played 27 minutes in his most recent outing and looks ready for his usual 30-minute workload here. If he gets 30 minutes against the worst defense in the NBA, a double-double seems like a strong possibility.

Davis Bertans (WAS) $5,600:
Bertans has been horrible for most of this season, but his sharpshooter scope is finally starting to tune correctly. He’s actually 14-of-17 from three-point range over the last two games, dropping 81.3 combined fantasy points. That’s an absurd total from such an affordable player, and he should be firing up three’s at will in the fastest pace game of the night. Not to mention, Portland sits 29th in defensive efficiency.

Robert Covington (POR) $6,200:
Covington is another guy who’s starting to see his season turn around. He’s scored at least 30 DK points in three-straight games, playing 38 minutes a night in that stretch. What we love is that he did that damage despite never taking more than seven shots in any of those games, showing just how dominant he could be if he gets hot from long distance. That could definitely happen here against the worst defense in basketball.

Alex Caruso (LAL) $3,900:
With Dennis-schroder.php” class=”fp-player-link fp-id-2780″ target=”_blank”>Dennis Schroder and Anthony Davis out of the lineup, Caruso could get a start at point guard here. In his return from injury on Thursday, Caruso played 26 minutes against the Nets. That was clearly a ramp-up, with 30 minutes here looking likely. This is a guy who’s scored at least 16 DK points in five-straight games, despite not reaching 20 minutes in most of those. That means 25 fantasy points is definitely which is a monster number from a $3,900 player. Not to mention, Miami owns a 27th OPRK against opposing point guards this season.

Coby White (CHI) $6,100:
White has been all over the map this season, but a matchup with the Kings is the sort of thing that can get him going. They currently rank 29th in total defense, and this is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the season. That’s big news for a guy who’s scored at least 28 fantasy points in 16 of his 27 games this year, which is all he would need at this price to provide great value. He had the best game of his career against these Kings on January 6, collecting 36 points, three rebounds, and seven assists en route to 52.3 DraftKings points!

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Damian Lillard (POR) $10,600: Lillard runs the show with C.J. McCollum, and Jusuf Nurkic sidelined, posting a 34 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor. It has led to some monstrous production, too, scoring at least 48 DraftKings points in 13 of his last 15 games. Facing Washington only adds to his value, with the Wizards playing at the fastest pace in the NBA while ranked dead-last in almost every defensive metric.
  • LeBron James (LAL) $10,200: LeBron is the current frontrunner for MVP, and one has to believe this stretch without Anthony Davis is a good time for him to juice his numbers. That’s a scary thought from a guy who’s already rolling, averaging 28.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 1.2 steals over his last 13 games played. That’s no surprise when you see that LBJ has a 35 percent usage rate with AD off the floor while averaging 1.5 DK points per minute.
  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $10,100: Curry is cruising right now, scoring at least 25 raw points in 11-straight games. That has led to him providing 35 points, 5.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.2 steals over his last nine fixtures. We love that against a subpar defense, especially when you see that Curry grew up in Charlotte. In his 16 career games against the Hornets, Curry is averaging 27.2 points, 6.8 assists, and 1.3 steals on 50 percent shooting en route to a ridiculous 124 offensive rating.
  • Zach LaVine (CHI) $9,200: LaVine is having an All-Star season, averaging 28.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game. That looks even more impressive when you see that he has at least 40 fantasy points in 22 of his 27 games this season. That makes him hard to fade in this matchup, with Sacramento surrendering the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing shooting guards.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Devonte’ Graham (CHA) $5,800: With LaMelo Ball entering the starting lineup, the Hornets have too many mouths to feed. Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward are the primary scorers, leaving Graham on the outside looking in. That means he needs to be efficient to provide value, and we’re talking about a guy who shoots 35 percent from the field.
  • Montrezl Harrell (LAL) $5,600: It looked like Harrell might be in for an increased role with AD sidelined, but 15 minutes of action on Thursday is very discouraging. It’s actually the third time in his last four games that he’s failed to crack 20 minutes, and that makes him hard to trust against a Top-10 Miami defense.
  • Kendrick Nunn (MIA) $5,300: With Jimmy Butler essentially taking over point guard duties, Nunn has seen his production drop off. In fact, he’s scored 27 or fewer fantasy points in six of his last seven games. That’s even scarier here facing the top defense in the NBA.
  • Frank Kaminsky (PHO) $4,600: Kaminsky was fantastic last week, but regression has hit him like a brick wall. He’s actually played just 30 combined minutes over the previous three games, picking up a DNP on Wednesday night. That’s hard to believe after 20-plus fantasy points in his last six games before that, but it makes him a must fade until we see more consistency.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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