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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (2/27)

Feb 27, 2021

It’ll be hard for LaMarcus Aldridge not to provide at least 5X value at his price.

We get seven games for this Saturday slate which is the perfect amount. The player pool isn’t too big or too small, but there’s still a lot we need to keep an eye on. Three teams play the second half of a back-to-back set, with Indiana, Oklahoma City, and Utah rounding them out. Luckily, we shouldn’t have anyone resting, but it is something that needs to be monitored.

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

The betting landscape is also fascinating on this slate. We have a ton of bad teams in action, but many of them are facing one another. With that in mind, we anticipate the Nets, Wizards, and Sixers to be the biggest favorites on this slate, but we aren’t likely to see any double-digit spreads. In terms of totals, the Washington-Minnesota and Dallas-Brooklyn matchups look like the shootouts of the night.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Dejounte Murray (SAS) $7,900:
Murray was our top value play in my last article, and he treated us with 27 points, nine rebounds, and six assists in a 51-point gem. That’s the third time he’s cracked 50 fantasy points in his last five games! We expect that to happen again here because San Antonio is likely to be without DeMar DeRozan, Keldon Johnson, Rudy Gay, and Derrick White. That leaves Murray as the focal point of the offense, which is terrible news for a 29th-ranked New Orleans defense.

Al Horford (OKC) $6,400:
With Big Al sitting out on Friday, he should be ready for a full workload here. The most intriguing part about him is his $6,400 price tag, with Horford performing at a $7K level. Since coming off maternity leave, Al has at least 29 DraftKings points in 11 of 13 games, averaging 37 fantasy points per game in that span. We’re certainly not worried about him squaring off against a defensively-inept Nikola Jokic either.

LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS) $6,100:
We already discussed all of San Antonio’s absences, and it’ll likely force Aldridge into a significant role. In his return to action, LA had 25.3 DK points, despite shooting 3-of-10 from the field. That’s a really encouraging sign because we’re talking about a 48 percent career shooter. If he plays close to 30 minutes again and takes double-digit shots, it’ll be hard for him not to provide at least 5X value at this price against such a putrid defense.

Anthony Edwards (MIN) $6,300:
Now that Malik Beasley and D’Angelo Russell are out for the next month, Edwards should be one of this offense’s focal points. That’s certainly been the case recently, with Edwards averaging 31 DK points per game across his last 17 outings. He’s done that damage despite shooting below 40 percent from the field, and we love that his minutes and production have been on the uptick throughout his rookie season. The matchup against Washington is the icing on the cake, with the Wizards ranked 28th in defensive efficiency while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.

Steven Adams (NOR) $5,300:
People overlook Adams for whatever reason, but he continues to rebound at will. In fact, he’s averaging 11.8 rebounds over his last four healthy fixtures, scoring at least 29 DraftKings points in each of those. That’s all you can ask for from someone this cheap, and he should have no problem matching that total again versus a San Antonio squad missing half of their players.

Jarred Vanderbilt (MIN) $4,100:
This is a hazardous play, but with Russell and Beasley out of the picture, Vanderbilt should continue to start and play big minutes. We love that he dropped 33 DK points across 34 minutes on Wednesday, and he’s always produced when given the minutes. In the 14 games that Vanderbilt has played at least 20 minutes, he’s averaging 28 fantasy points per game. If you get that from someone this cheap, you already have a piece of the optimal lineup. Not to mention, Washington surrenders the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.

Lonnie Walker (SAS) $4,300:
Here we go with another Spurs player. The simple fact is, this team is missing too many guys not to use them. In the first game, without all those players mentioned above, Walker played 33 minutes and took 16 shots as a starter. While he didn’t have a big game, we can’t overlook a role like that from someone this cheap, especially in such an enticing matchup.

Josh Richardson (DAL) $5,000:
Richardson has quietly turned his season around in Dallas, and it’s clear DraftKings has not taken notice. Over his last 11 games played, J-Rich is averaging 25 DK points in 33 minutes a night. That’s a heck of a total from a $5K player, and he should get some extra minutes to oppose offensive studs like James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Those guys can’t stop anyone on the other end either, with Brooklyn ranked 28th in total defense.

Rudy Gobert (UTH) $7,400:
Gobert could be in this article every day because DK keeps him way too cheap. He’s remained below $8K for the entirety of the season, despite averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game. Amazingly, he’s scored at least 29 DK points in 29 of his 32 games this season which is essentially a 4X floor. He’s been even better recently, averaging 41 fantasy points per game across his last 16 outings.

Derrick Rose (NYK) $5,300:
If Elfrid Payton misses another game here, Rose is one of the best values of the day. He actually got the start at point guard in his absence on Thursday, providing 18 points, three rebounds, and six assists. Rose did that damage despite that being a blowout, and it’s clear he’s going to be the primary ball-hander as long as Payton remains out.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • James Harden (BKN) $11,000 Harden has returned to the Houston form that made him an MVP candidate, and he should continue to carry the load with Kevin Durant sidelined. That’s allowed him to score at least 55 fantasy points in six of his last seven games, averaging 58 DK points per game in that span. He should be plenty hungry against Doncic and a 24th-ranked Dallas defense too.
  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,800: With Kristaps Porzingis missing games, Doncic is the best option in fantasy right now. That’s evident by his 38 percent usage rate with him off the floor, averaging 1.6 DK points per minute. That absurd rate is no surprise when you see that he’s averaging 29.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 9.6 assists over his last 25 games played. We certainly like that he’s facing a 28th-ranked Brooklyn defense too.
  • Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,300: Embiid shot just 5-of-20 from the field on Thursday, but he still provided 47 DK points in a vintage performance. That shows just how reliable he can be, scoring at least 39 DraftKings points in 25 of his 26 games this season. That shouldn’t be hard to duplicate against a Cleveland team that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency this month.
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) $10,100: KAT was in my fade section for most of last week, but he’s finally turning things around. The new head coach has actually turned him into more of a distributor, averaging 24 points, 11 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.5 blocks over his last four fixtures. That’s the stud we remember, and it’s encouraging to see him take at least 18 shots in three-straight. The matchup against Washington is the best part, and we already discussed that in the value section.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Terrence Ross (ORL) $6,300: Ross is one of those guys that gets streaky both ways, and he’s definitely on one of those stinkers this week. Over the last three games, he’s shooting 32 percent from the field. That’s scary with Evan Fournier back in the lineup and taking away touches, making Ross hard to trust. The nail in the coffin is the matchup with Utah, who happens to own the second-best defense in the NBA.
  • R.J. Barrett (NYK) $5,600: With Rose and Alec Burks taking away playing time from Barrett, he’s becoming hard to trust. That’s clear when you see that he’s failed to crack 31 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games, averaging just 23 DK points per game in that span. That’s especially scary against a Top-10 Pacers defense.
  • Joe Ingles (UTH) $5,100: Ingles is an incredible player, but he’s not trustworthy for DFS purposes unless Mike Conley or Donovan Mitchell is out. He’s averaging 29 DK points per game with at least one of them out of the lineup and has a 20-point average with both of them starting.
  • Jeremy Lamb (IND) $4,600: Lamb has been relegated to bench duties, and it’s really killed his fantasy value. He’s averaging fewer than 19 DK points per game across his last seven outings, seeing his minutes and shots decrease drastically. That really scares us against a Knicks team that surrenders the fewest points in the NBA.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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