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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (2/6)

DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Saturday (2/6)

This Friday-Saturday weekend slate is one of the craziest I can remember. After getting nine games on Friday, we have 11 games on Saturday. The good news is that some of them are during the day, with nine making up this night slate. There’s a lot to talk about, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.

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Most Value Per Dollar 

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

This is one of the busiest days of the season, and it should be a fun night of betting. We have a ton of close games on the docket and a lot of bad defenses in action. Look for almost every total to be north of 220.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Hamidou Diallo (OKC) $5,900:
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, George Hill, Luguentz Dort, and Al Horford all potentially sitting here, Diallo could be looking at 40 minutes in a start. That’s big news for a guy who’s averaging 1.15 DK points per minute for the season. That would equate to nearly 50 fantasy points if he gets the 40 minutes we expect, and we love the matchup against a 26th-ranked T’Wolves defense.

DeMarcus Cousins (HOU) $6,300:
Here we are again. It seems unlikely that Christian Wood will play here after that nasty ankle roll on Thursday. That means Cousins should start again, and he was a monster in this role early on. In fact, Cuz averaged 46 DraftKings points per game in his four starts for Wood this year.

Jakob Poeltl (SAS) $5,800:
With LaMarcus Aldridge sidelined, Poeltl should get another start at center. He averaged close to 30 fantasy points per game in that role last year and dropped 44 DK points in this role on Wednesday.

Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,500:
Embiid is my favorite high-priced player of the day, and we’ll discuss that more later.

Darius Bazley (OKC) $6,100:
All of the aforementioned absences in OKC add to Bazley’s value here. He’s a solid bet for a double-double whenever those guys play, and he might be the focal point of the frontcourt with all of them missing here.

Juan Toscano-Anderson (GSW) $4,200:
JTA has established a nice role with the Warriors and should continue to play big minutes with Eric Paschall, James Wiseman, and Kevon Looney potentially sitting here. In the first game without them, Toscano-Anderson tallied 14 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and two blocks across 39 minutes of play. That makes this price tag silly.

DeAndre Jordan (BKN) $4,300:
This might sound strange, but we like Jordan whenever the other team has a legit big. That’s certainly the case with Philly throwing out Embiid, likely forcing DJ into more playing time than usual. That’s all we can ask for from a player who’s averaging 25 DK points per game across 23 minutes a night since the Jarrett Allen trade.

Josh Richardson (DAL) $4,900:
Richardson is starting to turn things around, and we want to hop on the train before it gets too expensive. Over his last three games, J-Rich is averaging 30 fantasy points per game across 35 minutes a night. We definitely want to exploit that against a subpar Warriors defense below $5K.

Darius Garland (CLE) $6,400:
Garland always finds his way into this section, and it’s easy to see why. He’s now scored at least 26 DraftKings points in five-straight games and is averaging 34 fantasy points across 34 minutes as a starter this season. We love that against a Top-5 paced Milwaukee team.

Anthony Davis (LAL) $9,600:
Davis has struggled recently, but this price is way too cheap for him. We’ll discuss that in the next section.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day partner-arrow

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $11,100: Doncic is probably the best play on every slate. We say that because he’s averaging 27.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 9.4 assists per game for the year. That’s certainly worrisome for a 23rd-ranked Warriors defense.
  • Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,500: Embiid has scored at least 39 DK points in all but one game this season and is hard to fade in this matchup. He should be super motivated against this pseudo-All-Star team, averaging 53.4 DK points per game across his last seven outings. That should be easy to duplicate against a team with the worst defense in the NBA since they traded for James Harden.
  • Stephen Curry (GSW) $9,700: Curry just collected 28 points, three rebounds, and six assists in this matchup on Thursday and did that damage in just three quarters. That gives him a 45-point average over his last 11 games, and it seems unlikely Dallas will be able to stop him after allowing 147 points on Thursday.
  • Anthony Davis (LAL) $9,600: AD has been struggling a bit, but it’s lowered his price to a number we can’t fade. He’s still averaging close to 50 DK points per game and should be able to destroy a Detroit defense that’s surrendering the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing centers.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Al Horford (OKC) $6,500: This is simply a guess, but we believe Big Al will be sitting here. He’s sat one half of each back-to-back this season and looks likely to sit here after suiting up on Friday.
  • Keldon Johnson (SAS) $5,800: KJ has certainly been a breakout for the Spurs this season, but he’s inevitably going to lose some playing time to Derrick White. That’s really concerning with him posting a dud in two of the three games since White’s return, particularly against a Rockets team that’s playing some of the best defense in the NBA right now.
  • Eric Gordon (HOU) $5,800: Gordon has had some great games, but we just can’t trust him here with Victor Oladipo and John Wall both expected to play. In the last four games without both of them in the lineup, Gordon hasn’t cracked 30 DK points in any of them while averaging just 21 fantasy points per game.
  • Blake Griffin (DET) $5,100: This is one of the easiest fades of the season. We generally like to fade Griffin because his game has been plummeting for years, but we really don’t want to use him here against the best defense in the NBA. That doesn’t even take into consideration that this is the second half of a back-to-back set. That will likely limit Griffin or keep him on the bench altogether.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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