DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Tuesday (2/23)
Tuesdays tend to be lighter, but we’re treated to nine games here. Luckily, we haven’t had any postponements yet, and that’s all we could ask for after the craziness of last week. There are some great games to look forward to, so let’s go ahead and get into it with so much to discuss!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
Most Value Per Dollar
We’ve had more blowouts this season than I can remember, but this slate could be a disaster. We have the Nets, Bucks, and Clippers all playing terrible teams, with each club being big favorites. That’s quite frustrating because those are all such good matchups, and hopefully, it doesn’t lead to too many minutes being limited. In terms of totals, those four teams all have team totals north of 120. We’re also expected to see high-scoring games between the Nuggets-Blazers and Mavericks-Celtics.
If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Richaun Holmes (SAC) $5,600:
I don’t understand this pricing. Holmes has been a beast whenever he’s suited up, and it’s hard to understand why DraftKings is keeping him so cheap. If you take out the two games where Holmes got injured this year, he’s averaging 31.3 DK points per game. The price is spectacular, but the matchup is just as good. Brooklyn currently ranks 29th in defensive efficiency since acquiring James Harden while playing at the NBA’s eighth-fastest pace.
Saben Lee (DET) $3,200:
Our process told us to go with Dennis Smith Jr.on Sunday, and while the result was incorrect, we had the right idea. What we didn’t expect was for Lee to come in and steal Smith’s job. He played 33 minutes in that game, dropping a career-best 32 fantasy points. One of these guys needs to step up with Delon Wright injured and Derrick Rose out of town, and we’ll bet on it being Lee at such a cheap price tag.
Paul George (LAC) $9,100:
George looked like the All-Star player we know and love on Sunday, collecting 34 points, six rebounds, and seven assists in a vintage performance. That’s the guy we saw before the injury, too, averaging over 41 fantasy points per game. The best part of this might be the matchup, though, and we’ll discuss that more in the studs section later on.
Darius Garland (CLE) $6,100:
Here he is! Garland is in this section every day for me, and he’s going to remain in it until he gets the $7K price tag he’s earned. Before getting injured, Darius averaged 34 DK points per game in 34 minutes a night. While he struggled in his return, Garland is averaging over 29 fantasy points per game over his last 13 outings. This is a 21-year-old kid who’s only going to get better, and it’s time for DraftKings to start taking notice. We love the matchup against a Hawks team that surrenders the most fantasy points to opposing point guards as well.
Josh Jackson (DET) $5,800:
With Rose and Wright out of the picture, Jackson is in for a huge role. That certainly appeared to be the case on Sunday, when JJ took 23 shots and recorded a double-double! That’s a crazy total from someone this cheap, especially with him scoring 24-plus fantasy points in 11-straight games while averaging 30 DK points per game in that span.
Daniel Theis (BOS) $4,800:
Boston is starting to realize they need some size, and Theis is their go-to guy in the frontcourt. He played a season-high 39 minutes on Sunday, and if it weren’t for some nagging injures, Theis would be in the midst of a monster stretch. In fact, he’s scored at least 22 DK points in the last nine games he’s finished, averaging 28 fantasy points per game in those outings. That looks even better when you consider that he faces a 27th-ranked Dallas defense here too.
Tristan Thompson (BOS) $4,400:
Back-to-back Celtics bigs? Yeah, one of these guys will have a monster night, and they both remain way too cheap. Thompson has played at least 27 minutes in four-straight outings, averaging 29 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s an absurd total from a sub-$5K player, and he obviously benefits from the matchup that we discussed in the Theis write-up.
Nerlens Noel (NYK) $4,900:
Noel has been starting for the injured Mitchell Robinson, playing 30 minutes a night in this expanded role. Getting 30 minutes from this guy is a godsend for DFS purposes, averaging more than a fantasy-point-per-minute for his career. If he continues to do that, Noel will crush this $4,900 price tag and get closer to $6K over the next month. Facing Golden State only adds to his intrigue, with the Warriors ranked 19th in total defense while playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA.
Derrick Jones Jr. (POR) $5,000:
Jones has steadily seen his minutes climb over the last week, playing at least 31 minutes in four-straight. For an athlete like this, we love that with his 32-point average across his last three fixtures. What makes him really enticing here is the matchup, though, with Denver surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.
Michael Carter-Williams (ORL) $5,500:
With Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, and Aaron Gordon all going down with injuries, MCW has found a nice role as Orlando’s starting point guard. He’s played at least 27 minutes in all five starts he’s made, averaging over 25 DraftKings points per game in this expanded role. That’s amazing, considering he’s shooting just 32 percent from the field. That means positive regression should make him better as the season progresses.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $11,000: Giannis is sick of hearing everyone else’s names being thrown into MVP discussion because he’s the two-time champ. He’s been performing like it recently, scoring at least 65 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games while averaging 68 DK points per game in that span. That’s terrifying for a 26th-ranked T’Wolves defense.
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,800: Jokic is leading the NBA in total fantasy points, and it’s easy to see why. He’s scored at least 39 DK points in every game this season, and that alone makes him tough to fade. We don’t mind that Atlanta ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency either.
- James Harden (BKN) $10,700: Harden appears to be up to his old tricks, and he’s going to continue to be a monster until Kevin Durant returns. He’s now scored at least 54 fantasy points in five-straight fixtures, averaging 61 DK points per game in that span. That looks even better with Sacramento owning the worst defensive rating in the NBA.
- Nikola Vucevic (ORL) $10,200: This guy is on an absolute heater right now, averaging 70 DK points per game over his last two outings. One of those happened to come against these Pistons, which is no surprise when you see that they surrender the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
- Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $9,400: Using players against the Wizards is a cheat code. They currently play at the fastest pace in the NBA while ranked 29th in defensive efficiency. That’s bad news against a guy like Kawhi, with the Claw averaging 50 fantasy points per game across his last five fixtures.
Notable Players to Fade
- Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) $9,600: Towns has been in this section every game since his return, and his results don’t lie. The simple fact is, he’s playing at an $8K level. He’s averaging fewer than 44 fantasy points per game since his return, and this matchup is a complete disaster. We say that because Minnesota is a monster underdog, and Towns might not even step on the floor in the fourth quarter if this game goes as expected.
- Hassan Whiteside (SAC) $4,700: Now that Holmes is back, Whiteside is impossible to trust. He’s playing fewer than 15 minutes in games where Holmes starts, and it’s unlikely that he’ll reach that total against a Brooklyn team that likes to play small-ball.
- Tim Hardaway Jr. (DAL) $4,500: THJ has had some monster games when they were shorthanded earlier in the season, but he’s not the same with everyone back. He hasn’t cracked 31 DK points in 16-straight games and is averaging fewer than 22 fantasy points per game in that span.
- Derrick Rose (NYK) $4,500: Many people were excited to see Rose and Tom Thibideau reunite, but Rose has been terrible since putting on a Knicks uniform. He’s scored 22 or fewer fantasy points in four-straight, averaging just 16 DK points per game in that span.
Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.