DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Tuesday (2/9)
Now that the NFL is over and MLB is still months away, this is time for the NBA to shine. They have the spotlight for the next two months, and there’s a lot of great stuff to discuss. What’s fun about this week are the contests on DraftKings. For just $4, you can enter the Micro Millions contest, giving you a chance to win $100K! Holy crap! That means we need to be on our game, so let’s go ahead and get into it!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.
Most Value Per Dollar
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
It looks like we should have a lot of tight spreads and more high-scoring games. Only two lines have been released now, but there’s a ton of bad defenses and good offenses on display.
If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
DeMarcus Cousins (HOU) $7,400:
With Christian Wood out for the next week or so, Cousins will be the man in Houston. In his five starts for Wood this season, Cuz has scored at least 36 DraftKings points in all of them en route to a 43-point average.
Josh Jackson (DET) $5,700:
Jackson has scored at least 25 fantasy points in six of his last nine games, dropping a season-best 49 DK points on Sunday. With Derrick Rose now gone, JJ’s role should only increase from here on out. We love the matchup against one of the worst defenses in the NBA too.
Juan Toscano-Anderson (GSW) $5,000:
JTA has been a regular in this section, and these DFS sites need to do a better job of pricing him up. Over his last three games, Toscano-Anderson is averaging 28 fantasy points per game while playing 34 minutes a night. That’s absurd from a player at $5K.
Cole Anthony (ORL) $5,900:
Anthony has been rolling recently, scoring at least 28 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games. An emerging rookie like that is hard to ignore against a 28th-ranked Portland defense.
Jakob Poeltl (SAS) $6,000:
Poeltl averaged nearly 30 DK points per game starting for LaMarcus Aldridge last season and is averaging 31.4 DK points per game in that role this season. That’s terrible news for a 24th-ranked Warriors defense.
Delon Wright (DET) $6,000:
With Rose out of the picture, Wright should get almost all of the point guard minutes. That’s huge for a guy who’s averaging 34 fantasy points per game across his last 10 outings. Not to mention, he faces the worst defense in the NBA right now.
DeAndre Jordan (BKN) $4,600:
Jordan looked very comfortable with James Harden over the weekend, and he was well on his way to a monster night before a blowout. What we love here is the matchup, though, with Detroit surrendering the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing centers.
Elfrid Payton (NYK) $4,800:
Payton was terrible this time last week, but he appears to be performing better now. Over his last three games played, Payton is averaging 32 DK points per game, playing at least 31 minutes in each of those fixtures.
Robert Covington (POR) $5,800:
Covington is starting to turn things around for this shorthanded Portland team, scoring at least 26 DraftKings points in four of his five games since returning from injury.
Daniel Theis (BOS) $4,800:
Theis has one dud where he got injured but has been great aside from that. He’s got at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last four games, removing that first-quarter absence. That looks even better when you consider how shorthanded this Celtics team is right now.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- James Harden (BKN) $10,900: With Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant possibly sitting here, Harden is the Nets offense. He posted a 32.4 percent usage rate in the first game without those two and fell just shy of a triple-double. Even if one is out, Harden is still an excellent play.
- Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,500: Embiid has at least 39 fantasy points in all but one game this season and has an average north of 51 DK points per game. Sacramento’s league-worst defensive rating certainly won’t slow him down either.
- Stephen Curry (GSW) $10,400: Curry is cruising right now, scoring at least 73 DK points in two of his last four games while averaging 60 fantasy points per game in that span.
- Damian Lillard (POR) $10,000: With C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic both out of the lineup, Lillard is a one-man show in Portland. He’s got a usage rate just shy of 40 percent with those guys off the floor and has now scored at least 49 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games.
- Jerami Grant (DET) $7,000: Grant’s price has been falling, but this dude is still a beast. He’s got at least 28 DK points in all but two games this season and could double that against a Nets team with the worst defensive rating in the NBA over the last two weeks.
Notable Players to Fade
- Andrew Wiggins (GSW) $6,500: Wiggins has only surpassed 34 DK points once in his last 12 games. That’s about what you need from someone in this price range, and it looks even worse against a stingy Spurs defense.
- Eric Gordon (HOU) $6,200: Gordon is averaging fewer than 25 DK points per game when Victor Oladipo and John Wall are in the lineup.
- R.J. Barrett (NYK) $6,000: Barrett had just 7.5 DK points in this matchup on Sunday, and we can’t trust him after such an ugly game against such a good defense.
- Blake Griffin (DET) $5,000: Griffin is a fade on every slate, averaging just 14 fantasy points per game across his last three fixtures.
- Marvin Bagley III (SAC) $4,900: Bagley’s playing time is plummeting, playing 22 or fewer minutes in six of his last seven games. That has led to him averaging 18 DK points per game across his last six outings.
Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.