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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (2/24)

Feb 23, 2021

Dejounte Murray is undoubtedly the best play on the board.

One of the most frustrating aspects of NBA DFS is having to deal with back-to-back sets. This is one of the worst slates I can remember in that instance, with seven teams playing the second half of a back-to-back set. Those teams include Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Golden State, Minnesota, and Toronto. Those are definitely teams to looks out for because players will inevitably be resting.

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Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

There won’t be many spreads released because of all the B2Bs. With that said, we anticipate most of the games being close, with no double-digit spreads. It also might be a lower-scoring night because five of the bottom six defenses aren’t even on this slate. On the contrary, eight of the top nine defenses are playing, so it’ll likely make the cutline below 300. The center position is full of value once again, as you’ll see in the next section.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Dejounte Murray (SAS) $7,400:
This is undoubtedly the best play on the board. San Antonio may be without DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Keldon Johnson, and Derrick White. That leaves Murray as the only true starter left, likely forcing him into the biggest usage game of his career. This is a guy who usually thrives off of low usage, and it’s scary to think how good he can be running the show. He’s averaging 36 fantasy points per game for the year, and that’ll be the floor here, with Oklahoma City ranked 19th in total defense.

Myles Turner (IND) $6,100:
Turner has been rolling recently, averaging 33.4 DraftKings points per game across his last four outings. That’s right on par with his season average, and his athleticism should thrive against a Warriors team that plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA. That was certainly the case when Turner had 22 points, 12 rebounds, and six blocks in his one meeting with them en route to a season-best 56 fantasy points.

Al Horford (OKC) $6,400:
Horford has been crushing ever since he returned from maternity leave, scoring at least 29 DK points in 10 of 12 games. He’s also averaging 37 fantasy points per game in that span, making him a heck of a bargain below $7K. We love the matchup against a shorthanded Spurs team too.

Darius Garland (CLE) $6,500:
Here we go again! I said Garland would remain here until he gets a price bump, and we still haven’t gotten enough of one! The youngster has at least 24 DK points in 12 of his last 14 games while averaging 29 fantasy points per game in that span. That even includes a stretch in which he was limited coming off of injury, and it’s just a matter of time before he’s a $7K player. Facing a Houston team that plays at the third-fastest pace in the league only adds to his value.

Wendell Carter Jr. (CHI) $5,900:
Carter has been fantastic since coming off an injury, averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game. That’s the guy we saw in the first month, and it’s clear the youngster is taking the next step in his career. Scoring a season-high 46 fantasy points in his most recent game is even more encouraging, especially against a 25th-ranked T’Wolves defense.

Josh Jackson (DET) $6,000:
Detroit is in full-on rebuild mode, trading Derrick Rose and benching Blake Griffin. Those two moves made JJ intriguing, but an injury to Delon Wright makes him one of the offense’s focal points. In the first game without those three, Jackson led the team in usage while taking 23 shots! He also recorded a double-double in that game and has now scored at least 24 fantasy points in 11-straight games. That looks even better when you consider that he faces a Pelicans team that sits 29th in defensive efficiency.

Kendrick Nunn (MIA) $6,100:
Nunn has quietly been excellent filling-in for Goran Dragic, and it’s time DraftKings starts taking notice. He’s scored at least 25 DK points in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 35 DK points per game across 36 minutes a night in those eight outings. That’s a brilliant stretch, and he was feasting on Raptor meat in their first two meetings this season, averaging 44 fantasy points per game.

Deandre Ayton (PHO) $6,900:
Ayton hasn’t had many monster games this season, but he’s been too good to sit below $7K. We’re talking about a guy who’s scored at least 28 DraftKings points in 23 of his 30 games this season, averaging over 33 fantasy points per game. His rebounding has risen as the season progresses too, and it’s not like anyone in this Charlotte frontcourt will be able to slow him down.

Saben Lee (DET) $3,800:
With Rose out of town and Wright sidelined, Lee is the go-to point guard now. While Dennis Smith has started the last two games, Lee has finished them. He’s averaging 16.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.5 steals in those outings, playing 31 minutes a night. That’s a truly ridiculous stretch from someone below $4K, and we obviously love the spectacular matchup that we talked about in the Jackson write-up.

Robert Williams (BOS) $4,400:
People call this guy “Time Lord” because he’s one of the best per-minute producers in the NBA. In fact, Williams is averaging 19,2 DK points per game in just 15 minutes a night. That’s a scary rate when you see that William’s minutes are on the rise, averaging 19 minutes per game across his last four outings. He’s also scored at least 31 fantasy points in three of those, which is an absurd total from someone this cheap.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • LeBron James (LAL) $10,900: With Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder sidelined, LeBron is the Lakers offense. James has a 35 percent usage rate with those two off the floor and has been going crazy the last two weeks. In fact, LBJ is averaging 27.5 points, 9.3 rebounds and 9.3 assists over his last 10 games played.
  • Domantas Sabonis (IND) $10,500: Sabonis has been a freak all season, but he’s been even better recently. He’s actually scored at least 40 fantasy points in each of his last six games, averaging over 53 fantasy points per game in that span. Facing this fast-paced Warriors team makes him even more attractive, and Sabonis collected 18 points, 14 rebounds, and six assists in their only meeting earlier this season.
  • Zach LaVine (CHI) $9,600: The shooting guard is averaging 28.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 1.2 steals for the year and continues to improve. He’s been even better recently, scoring at least 45 DK points in nine of his last 10 games en route to a 48-point average. That’s terrible news for a bad Minnesota defense, particularly with LaVine playing a revenge game against his former team.
  • John Wall (HOU) $8,300: With Houston playing so shorthanded, Wall has taken over this team. That’s evident when you see that he has at least 29 DraftKings points in 12-straight games, averaging 37 fantasy points per game in that span. He’s done that despite numerous blowouts, and a close game against a 22nd-ranked Cleveland defense could get him closer to 50!

Notable Players to Fade

  • Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) $9,700: Towns has been a regular in this section, and he’ll remain in it until we know he’s fully healthy. He’s been quoted saying that his wrist still bugs him, and it’s led to him averaging fewer than 44 fantasy points per game since returning. That’s not good enough from a player flirting with five-figures, and it’s very concerning that this is the second half of a back-to-back set.
  • Gordon Hayward (CHA) $6,900: With Terry Rozier and LaMelo Ball breaking out, Hayward has taken a backseat. He’s failed to crack 34 fantasy points in five-straight fixtures and is now dealing with a hand injury. That worries us, but a matchup against a Top-5 Phoenix defense makes him a must fade.
  • Draymond Green (GSW) $6,600: This is another back-to-back that concerns us. Green is an aging veteran, and his minutes may be limited in this circumstance. That’s already concerning but facing a Top-10 Pacers defense makes him all the riskier.
  • Kemba Walker (BOS) $6,200: This is the easiest fade on the slate. Walker has yet to play in both ends of a back-to-back set, and he surely won’t suit up here. If that’s the case, don’t forget about Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum getting more usage.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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