DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy: Wednesday (2/10)
Wednesdays are usually jam-packed with games, and that’s certainly the case with a nine-game ledger here. It’s been a great week so far, and there’s a lot to talk about, so let’s go ahead and get into it!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.
Most Value Per Dollar
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Not many spreads or totals have been released yet, but you can find all of that information by clicking the link below.
If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
Trae Young (ATL) $9,900:
Young is the best play on the board, and we’ll tell you why in the studs section.
Myles Turner (IND) $6,000:
Brooklyn has the worst defensive rating since the James Harden trade while playing at a Top-3 pace. That’s big news for a hustling big man like this, with Turner averaging 34 fantasy points per game. Look for that to be the floor in such a spectacular matchup, making him a great value at just $6K.
Darius Garland (CLE) $6,000:
Garland is in this section pretty much every article I write, and he’s going to remain in it until he gets the price bump he deserves. If you take out his first four games back from injury, Garland is averaging 33 DK points per game as a starter this season. We love that against a 22nd-ranked Nuggets defense.
Fred VanVleet (TOR) $8,600:
FVV probably isn’t considered a stud to most people, but he’s going to find his way into that section today. It’ll be easy to understand why when you read on!
Josh Richardson (DAL) $5,200:
Richardson has been a mainstay in this section, too, and recent results show that we’ve been doing something right. Over his last five games, J-Rich is averaging 29.2 DK points per game across 34 minutes a night.
Chris Boucher (TOR) $5,900:
Boucher was terrible two weeks ago, but he’s starting to recapture the form we saw at the beginning of the season. The big man has scored at least 32 DK points in three-straight games, averaging 38 fantasy points per game in that span. That looks even better when you consider this matchup, which we’ll discuss more later.
Dorian Finney-Smith (DAL) $4,400:
DFS was a $6K player in the bubble last season, and some things make us believe he can get back to that soon. He’s now scored at least 21 DK points in three of his last four games, averaging 34 minutes a night over his last two outings. That means he’s entirely over the COVID absence, and as long as he plays 35-plus minutes, Finney-Smith is hard to overlook at this price.
Kyle Kuzma (LAL) $5,700:
Something tells me that LeBron James or Anthony Davis will sit here. AD sat out on Monday with an Achilles issue, while LeBron has played 89 combined minutes over the last two games. If one or both of these guys sit, Kuzma is an easy choice. That would likely mean 25 minutes, and if you look at the 10 games Kuz has played at least 25 minutes, he’s scored at least 25 DK points in seven of them. If they both play, forget this recommendation.
Patrick Williams (CHI) $5,500:
With Wendell Carter Jr, Otto Porter, and Lauri Markkanen all out, Williams should play a ton. That’s certainly been the case when you see his 34-minute average over his last four fixtures. He’s also averaging 27 DraftKings points per game in that span, which is all you can ask for from someone this cheap.
Eric Bledsoe (NOR) $5,900:
Bledsoe has been too good to remain this inexpensive. Since the calendar turned to 2021, Bledsoe is averaging over 26 fantasy points per game, dropping a 36-point gem in his most recent outing.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,000: Jokic is the best player in fantasy right now. He’s the only player in the league averaging more than 60 DraftKings points per game and has a 74-point average over his last two outings.
- Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,800: Doncic and Trae Young will go at it here. In their first meeting, Doncic had 64 DK points despite struggling with his shot.
- Trae Young (ATL) $9,900: Dallas has allowed 136 points per game across their last three fixtures. That’s terrifying news against Trae Day, scoring at least 51 DK points in nine of his last 10 games.
- Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $9,400: Kawhi has scored at least 30 DraftKings points in every game this season. That’s even more encouraging when you see his 48-point floor over the last nine games, particularly against a 26th-ranked T’Wolves defense.
- Fred VanVleet (TOR) $8,600: We foreshadowed Washington’s defense earlier on, so let’s start with that. This team currently ranks 29th in defensive efficiency and 30th in points allowed while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA. That’s a godsend for an opponent, especially one that has a 54-point average over his last four fixtures. If Kyle Lowry misses this game, too, FVV is the best per-dollar play on the board.
Notable Players to Fade
- Hamidou Diallo (OKC) $6,500: Diallo was a great pick over the weekend, but with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Al Horford, Luguentz Dort, and Theo Maledon all healthy, it’s hard to believe his significant role will remain. UPDATE: SGA and Maledon will both miss this game, putting Diallo back in play. With that said, there’s serious blowout potential.
- Naz Reid (MIN) $6,300: There’s a chance Karl-Anthony Towns will return here, which scares us with Reid dealing with an ankle issue of his own. All of that is even more worrisome against a Top-5 Clippers defense.
- Jarret Allen (BKN) $5,800: People might get excited to see Allen enter the starting lineup, but that takes rebounds away from him with Andre Drummond swallowing them all up. He’s failed to crack 26 DK points in three-straight games, and we can’t trust that at this price.
- Dillon Brooks (MEM) $5,500: Brooks is in a similar boat as Diallo. With Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas both back, Brooks’s fantasy upside has plummeted. If he’s not knocking down shots at a high clip, he’s not going to live up to this price tag.
Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.