The Chiefs and Buccaneers played a close regular-season game in Week 12. The visiting Chiefs won27-24. They’re running it back this weekend with the Chiefs looking to defending their Super Bowl Championship and claim the title in back-to-back seasons. The defending champs are three-point favorites, according to the consensus line at BettingPros. The margin matches that of their Week 12 win, but I think they boat race the Bucs, and that’s reflected in the DraftKings Showdown slate picks.

Check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the Super Bowl

Captain

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): $18,000
Mahomes torched the Bucs in their regular-season contest. He threw for a season-high 462 yards with three passing touchdowns. He also added 26 yards on the ground. The game’s top signal-caller erased concerns about turf toe hampering his play in the AFC Championship game by lighting the Bills up for 325 yards and three touchdowns.

The 2018 NFL MVP bested 300 yards passing with multiple touchdowns in nine of 18 games this year. I expect him to repeat the feat one more time. He’ll be on 100% of my rosters and slotted in as the captain on many teams.

Building Blocks

Travis Kelce (TE – KC): $11,000 and Tyreek Hill (WR – KC): $10,400
Can you pick one of Mahomes’ top-two weapons to stack with him? Sure. I’m taking both, though. Hill notably erupted for 203 receiving yards in the first quarter of the first game between these two clubs, and he finished the game with a 13-269-3 line on 15 targets. He’s blown the doors off the opposition in two playoff games, totaling an 8-110-0 line and three carries for nine yards as well as a 9-172-0 line.

The Bucs yielded the fifth-most receptions (236), 13th-most receiving yards (2,733), and tied for the 12th-most touchdown receptions allowed to receivers in the regular season, per Pro Football Reference. I don’t envision them holding Hill in check.

Kelce’s salary-cap figure is higher than Hill’s despite the less-impressive showing against the Bucs earlier in the year. He hauled in all eight of his targets for 82 scoreless yards. Kelce’s been remarkably consistent this year, and he’s been on a massive heater. The stud tight end’s scored a touchdown in six-straight games, reached double-digit targets in each, doing so in nine of his last 10 games. He’s also surpassed 100 receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games. If picking between Kelce and Hill, I’m choosing the former. Although, I have them both on all of the rosters I’ve constructed.

Value Play

Chiefs (D/ST – KC): $2,600
Rostering Mahomes as the captain and his one-two punch of Kelce and Hill requires rostering multiple value plays. The one I’m using that I expect to be on the lowest percentage of rosters is the Chiefs defense and special teams, and my expectation fuels their inclusion in this space. My belief the Super Bowl will be a lopsided win for the Chiefs adds to the appeal of using them as a value option.

One reason I’m optimistic about the Chiefs’ odds of blowing out the Bucs is their defensive struggles in the first quarter of games as measured by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

An interesting split in DVOA: Tampa Bay’s defense with rank.
Q1: 26th
Q2: 16th
Q3: 6th
Q4: 1st

(In case you are curious, Kansas City’s rank by quarter on offense goes 2, 3, 3, 4.)

– Aaron Schatz ???? (@FO_ASchatz) January 28, 2021

As previously noted, Hill smoked them in the first quarter earlier this year. The Chiefs led 17-0 after the first quarter in that game. The Chiefs are also playing some of their best defense of late, as Aaron Schatz notes in another tweet.

The thing about Kansas City flipping a switch is that it was always supposed to refer to the OFFENSE, but the DEFENSE has also played its two best games since Week 4 in the two playoff wins.

There’s no way Tampa can win if the Kansas City defense plays this well in two weeks.

– Aaron Schatz ???? (@FO_ASchatz) January 25, 2021

Kansas City’s stellar defensive play lately supports the case for using them, but their upside is enhanced if the offense can stake them to a large lead. If the Bucs fall behind early, Kansas City’s defense could pin their ears back and blitz Tom Brady mercilessly. Yet another tweet from Schatz showcases Brady’s success — or lack thereof — facing extra blitzing defenders.

Tom Brady in Week 12 by @SportsInfo_SIS charting:
3-4 rushers: 8.7 yds, 52.9% DVOA
5 rushers: 10.9 yds, 43.3% DVOA
6-7 rushers: 3.7 yds, -94.8% DVOA

This is one game, but Brady was better without a blitz all year, and KC sent 6+ pass-rushers more than any other defense all year.

– Aaron Schatz ???? (@FO_ASchatz) January 27, 2021

Brady absorbed one sack and threw two interceptions in the first meeting. He was sacked once and tossed three picks last week. The G.O.A.T.’s 2.0% interception percentage in the regular season was his highest mark since 2011. There’s turnover potential for Kansas City’s defense, as was illustrated in the first meeting. Let the game’s over/under of 56.5 points, and small three-point spread scare others away from Kansas City’s defense.

Check out all of the FREE Super Bowl LV sports betting coverage at BettingPros

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.