With the Super Bowl in the books, we can start looking ahead to some early average draft positions for 2021 fantasy football leagues. It goes without saying that we still have an entire offseason of transactions to experience, so we shouldn’t be looking at anything as concrete right now. Still, it never hurts to start forming some initial impressions of players who might be overvalued or undervalued at this stage. Below are three running backs that might not be worthy of their ranking here in early February.

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Expert consensus rankings are for 0.5 PPR leagues and can be found here.

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE) ECR: RB6
It never feels good betting against elite talent, and from what I can tell, Chubb is a special player. Arguably the best inside runner in football, Chubb had a career-year in his first season under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Offseason investments in the offensive line, combined with Stefanski’s run-first philosophy, set Chubb up for success in 2020. Even with Kareem Hunt receiving plenty of work himself, Chubb was a fantasy RB1 when healthy last year.

Chubb was certainly efficient running the ball last season, but when it came to scoring touchdowns, he was finding the end zone at an unsustainable pace:

 
As evidenced above, Chubb’s 2020 performance saw him scoring touchdowns twice as often as he had his first two seasons in the NFL. Of course, this could be seen as the product of him getting better now that he’s in his third season as a pro, but we know that touchdowns aren’t purely a skill based stat—opportunity matters. And while Chubb will once again enter the season as his team’s primary goal-line back, we still can’t expect him to score as often as he did last year.

This is a problem for his value moving forward because we also have a three-year track record of Chubb not being involved as a pass-catcher. Through his first 44 NFL games, Chubb is averaging just 1.6 receptions per contest. That just isn’t going to move the needle in PPR formats. Chubb’s high-end skill on a run-first team gives him a decent floor, but fantasy managers will need that touchdown rate to continue if he’s going to be a surefire RB1 again.

Aaron Jones (RB – GB) ECR: RB9
I outlined this in a recent “Dynasty Players To Sell” article, and until we know where Jones is going to be playing next year, we have to view him as a very volatile player in fantasy football. More than any other position, running back production is a product of your surroundings. Over the past two seasons, Jones has been a bona fide stud for fantasy purposes, and it’s no coincidence that his situation has been favorable.

As an unrestricted free agent, Jones’ value could shift wildly over the next few months. This makes him a volatile player. We like ambiguous situations for fantasy purposes when it comes to players in the middle or later rounds. Jones’ teammate this past season, A.J. Dillon, is a perfect example. His stock hinges entirely on where Jones signs this spring. If Jones moves on from the Packers, then Dillon’s value erupts.

However, as far as I can tell, Jones’s ambiguous situation doesn’t leave much room for upside right now. The Packers are just that good of a supporting cast. There aren’t many teams he could land on that would make him a more desired fantasy asset. Therefore, it’s best to view him as a volatile player with downside. If he stays in Green Bay, then I think his ADP can be justified. But what if he goes to a bad offense? His name value and recent production will likely keep him atop draft boards, but his actual value wouldn’t match it. I’m avoiding Jones until we know more.

James Robinson (RB – JAC) ECR: RB20
It’s tough to write negatively about Robinson. An undrafted free agent by the lowly Jaguars, Robinson became a legitimate hero for fantasy managers savvy enough to scoop him off waivers before the season. So why should we be fading him after a rookie campaign where he frequently put up high-end RB1 numbers, especially with the expected arrival of mega prospect Trevor Lawrence? It has everything to do with opportunity.

Robinson is a good player, as are many running backs who aren’t viewed as fantasy studs. The issue with his value entering 2021 is more about the projected volume I see coming his way because it’ll be tough for him to match the usage he saw this past season.

According to PlayerProfile.com, Robinson’s 85.2% opportunity share (percentage of total team carries and targets) led all running backs in 2020. Basically, Jacksonville used Robinson more than any other team used one singular RB. This should be a good thing, no? The Jaguars like him, so they should keep using him, yes?

It’s possible, but it’s also possible the organization brings in competition through the draft or free agency. Robinson didn’t have many backfield mates to compete with last year, and the team was going nowhere so they could justify running him into the ground. I’m not so sure that’ll happen again in ’21. Like Jones, Robinson feels like a volatile asset who could lose value the second another RB is brought in.

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Brendan Tuma is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.