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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Sunday (2/14)

Feb 14, 2021

Buy the dip on Ja Morant.

After a small four-game slate on Saturday, we get treated to a full one here. In total, we have 10 games taking place, with nine of them making up the night-slate. What’s frustrating here is that we have so much injury news that won’t be available until closer to the first tip. That means we have to make some educated guesses, but that’s why we make these articles! With that in mind, let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.

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Most Value Per Dollar

Not all of the spreads have been released yet, but it looks like we might have some blowouts to deal with. The Clippers, Suns, Bucks, and Raptors are all big favorites, each being favored by eight points or more. We only have a few available in terms of totals, but the Denver-Los Angeles game looks like the lowest-scoring one, while the Dallas-Portland matchup should be a shootout.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Ja Morant (MEM) $7,100:
Morant has actually been slumping a bit, but it’s lowered his price way too much. We’re still talking about a guy who’s averaging over 36 FanDuel points per game in his 12 healthy outings this season. He’s also cracked 42 fantasy points in four of those and happens to be coming off one of those against the best defense in the NBA. That’s certainly not the case here, with the Kings owning the NBA’s worst defensive rating right now.

Jakob Poeltl (SAS) $5,800:
Poeltl should continue to start for LaMarcus Aldridge, making him a great value at the center position. In this role last season, he averaged over 25 FD points per game. He’s been even better this year, scoring at least 38 fantasy points in three of his five starts en route to a 33-point average. We love that he faces a weak Charlotte frontcourt too.

Kyle Lowry (TOR) $7,600:
Using Toronto players is going to be critical here. We say that because Minnesota currently ranks 25th in defensive efficiency and 26th in points allowed. That’s a recipe to success for Lowry, with Kyle averaging nearly 40 FD points per game across his last eight full games.

Josh Richardson (DAL) $4,900:
Richardson has quietly turned his season around since coming off the COVID list. Over his last seven games, J-Rich is averaging 27 FD points per game across 33 minutes a night. That looks even more attractive when you consider this superb matchup, and we’ll go over that more later on!

Chris Boucher (TOR) $7,200:
Boucher has had two amazing stretches and one horrific one, but he finds himself in the midst of one of the majestic ones right now. The big man has scored at least 33 fantasy points in five-straight games while averaging 39 FanDuel points per game in that span. We obviously adore those numbers, with Minnesota surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers as well.

Michael-Carter Williams (ORL) $4,400:
Orlando could be without Evan Fournier, Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Fran Mason, and Aaron Gordon here, leaving MCW as the only true ball-handler left. In a rare start on Friday, Carter-Williams collected 21 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists. He’s shown those stat-stuffing ways in the past, and if all these guys remain out, MCW is hard to fade in this price range.

Isaiah Stewart (DET) $4,000:
If Mason Plumlee is out again, look for Stewart as a great GPP play. In his two starts he’s made for Mason, Stewart is averaging 26 FD points in 27 minutes a night. This is a guy who’s averaging 0.9 FD points per minute for the season, and if he plays 25-plus minutes, he’ll provide great value at this price. Not to mention, New Orleans has a bottom-three defense over the last two weeks.

Grayson Allen (MEM) $4,900:
Memphis could be without Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr, Brandon Clarke, and De’Anthony Melton here. That’s going to force Allen into a significant role, which was on full display when he had 34 FD points across 35 minutes on Friday. Surprisingly, he’s scored at least 28 fantasy points in five of his last seven games, and that’s likely to happen again versus the worst defense in basketball.

Miles Bridges (CHA) $5,400:
While the Hornets have a ton of depth at the guard positions, that’s not the case at forward. They recently lost P.J. Washington, which has forced Bridges into his role. That’s allowed Miles to record double-doubles in back-to-back games, and as long as he’s playing the 31 minutes a night we’ve seen over the last four fixtures, Bridges should build off of his 30-point average in that span.

Kenrich Williams (OKC) $5,500:
Williams has quietly been a revelation for the Thunder. He’s now averaging 29 FD points per game across his last six outings and should continue to play big minutes with Oklahoma City being so shorthanded. We also don’t mind that he faces a Milwaukee team that ranks sixth in pace.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Luka Doncic (DAL) $11,300: Doncic just had one of the best games of his career on Friday, and that’s saying something for a guy like this. He provided 46 points, eight rebounds, and 12 assists in that gem, bringing his FD average to 57 fantasy points across his last six outings. That’s truly horrifying for a terrible Trail Blazers defense, ranked 28th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,600: Jokic is almost impossible to fade these days. He’s leading the NBA with more than 56 FanDuel points per game and has scored at least 42 fantasy points in all but one game this season. He’s been even better recently, scoring at least 57 fantasy points in 11 of his last 15 games. Look for him to be extra motivated against the Lakers team that knocked him out of last year’s playoffs too.
  • Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $10,200: With Paul George expected to miss another game here, Kawhi should be in for another significant workload. Kawhi has a 36 percent usage rate with him off the floor while averaging 1.4 FD points per minute. That’s certainly evident when you see that Leonard has at least 50 fantasy points in 10 of his last 15 games. We’re certainly not worried about him facing a Cleveland team in the midst of a six-game losing streak, either.
  • Damian Lillard (POR) $9,500: With C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic both sidelined, Lillard is the Blazers’ offense. In fact, he’s got a 35 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor, scoring at least 36 FanDuel points in 15-straight games. He’s also averaging 48 fantasy points per game in that span and should be able to duplicate that against a Dallas team that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency. Look for Lillard and Luka to go off on one another.
  • Jerami Grant (DET) $7,600: Grant has been a breakout player for Detroit this season, but it would be hard to tell by this price. The former Nugget has a 40-point average for the season, scoring at least 28 fantasy points in 23 of his 26 games this year. New Orleans has been one of the worst defenses in the NBA recently, ranked 24th in defensive rating.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Gordon Hayward (CHA) $7,300: With LaMelo Ball emerging and Devonte’ Graham now healthy, there are too many mouths to feed in Charlotte. That doesn’t even take into consideration Terry Rozier‘s resurgence, making Hayward really tough to trust. He’s been affected by all of this recently, failing to crack 32 fantasy points in each of his last three fixtures.
  • Jarret Allen (CLE) $6,900: Allen’s minutes have been up the last two games, but we need to look deeper. Both of those games were massive blowouts, and Allen was moved to the bench on Friday. If Andre Drummond gets rolling, look for Allen to struggle to get to 20 minutes, making it hard to use him around $7K.
  • Michael Porter Jr. (DEN) $5,800: Porter hasn’t been the same guy we saw last season. He’s actually scored 27 or fewer fantasy points in six of his last seven games, and that seems like a strong possibility again versus the best defense in the NBA.
  • Naz Reid (MIN) $5,500: Many people might see Reid’s production on Friday and assume he can produce with Karl-Anthony Towns there, but that won’t be the case. Towns will eventually swallow up 36 of the 48 center minutes, and there won’t be enough meat on the bone for Reid to provide value at this price.
  • Blake Griffin (DET) $5,200: Griffin has only reached 30 fantasy points once in his last nine games, averaging 22 FD points per game in that span. He’s obviously not the All-Star we remember, and his role will only decrease from here on out.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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