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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Sunday (2/28)

Feb 28, 2021

De’Aaron Fox is currently in the best stretch of his career.

After a wild weekend, we’re closing things out with this Sunday slate. Luckily, we have just one day-game, with eight games making up the night slate. That’s a pretty high number for a Sunday slate, and I can’t wait to get into it! There’s a lot to discuss, though, so let’s go ahead and break it down!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.

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Most Value Per Dollar 

There haven’t been many spreads released yet, but it looks like we should have a bunch of close games. The biggest favorites should include Miami, Boston, and Phoenix, but it seems unlikely that any of them will be double-digit favorites. In terms of totals, look for the Sacramento-Charlotte game to be the highest on the slate.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $8,000:
While Sacramento has been struggling recently, Fox has not. In fact, he’s currently in the best stretch of his career right now, averaging 25.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, 8.6 assists, and 1.2 steals over his last 19 games played. That has led to him scoring at least 37 FanDuel points in 15 of those 19 fixtures, which is an absurd total from someone in this price range. We also don’t mind that he faces a Charlotte team that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency, either.

P.J. Washington (CHA) $6,000:
With Cody Zeller nicked up, Washington should find himself in another lofty role. That was certainly the case on Friday, with P.J. collecting 43 fantasy points in one of the best games of his career. An injury did hurt some of his production last week and lowered his price, but this is a guy who’s scored over 30 FD points in 13 of the 28 games he’s played. That seems like a strong possibility when you consider this matchup, with Sacramento ranked dead-last in defensive efficiency.

Kemba Walker (BOS) $6,800:
Kemba has been slow in his return from injury, but recent results would indicate that he’s starting to return to the All-Star player we know and love. Over his last six games, Walker is averaging 36 fantasy points per game in 33 minutes a night. Those minutes are a huge sign, especially with Kemba taking 18 shots a game in that span while flirting with a 30 percent usage rate. The best part might be this matchup, though, with Washington ranked 27th in defensive efficiency while playing at the fastest pace in the league.

Wendell Carter (CHI) $6,800:
Despite struggling on Friday, WCJ still averaged 33.4 FD points per game across his last three fixtures. That’s not that far off of his season average, and it tells us that this 21-year-old is growing by the day. The matchup against Toronto is far from problematic, too, with the center position being their weakest position in an otherwise stout starting lineup.

Ja Morant (MEM) $7,100:
Ja has remained in this $7K-range all season long, and if it weren’t for a slow adjustment in his return from injury, he’d be closer to $8,000. If you take out the game where he got injured, Morant is averaging over 36 fantasy points per game, scoring at least 28 FD points in all but three fixtures. We love that against a Houston team that ranks third in pace, which caters to Morant’s athleticism beautifully.

Dennis Schroder (LAL) $5,800:
Schroder made his return from the COVID list on Friday, providing 30 FanDuel points across 32 minutes of play. That’s his lowest total in the last four games without Anthony Davis, averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game in those outings. That makes him a huge value, particularly against a 19th-ranked Warriors defense that plays at the NBA’s second-fastest pace.

Robert Williams (BOS) $5,300:
Williams is one of the riskier options out there, but he has a ton of upside. We say that because he’s averaging about 1.4 FD points per minute and has seen his playing time rise recently. He’s now played at least 16 minutes in five of his last seven games, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in four of those, despite averaging fewer than 20 minutes a night. That’s a monster number from someone this cheap, and it’s scary to think how good he could be if he played closer to 25-30 minutes. We clearly love the matchup too.

Ricky Rubio (MIN) $5,100:
With D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley out of the lineup, Rubio should be in for even more ball-handling duties. That’s already been the case recently, with Ricky averaging 28 FD points per game across his last 10 outings. That’s all you can ask for from someone in this price range, and his role should increase with so many key pieces out of this lineup.

OG Anunoby (TOR) $5,400:
Anunoby has struggled in his return to action, but this guy has too much potential to be this cheap. We say that because OG averaged 31 fantasy points per game across 35 minutes a game in his first 16 outings before going down with an injury. Most importantly, he played 36 minutes a couple of nights ago and appeared to no longer have a minutes restriction. That looks even better when you look at this tasty matchup, with Chicago ranked fifth in pace and 24th in points allowed.

Goran Dragic (MIA) $5,500:
Dragic just returned from a lengthy absence on Friday, and his 38 FanDuel points showed just how much he means to this team. He also played 33 minutes, and one has to believe he could return to the starting lineup here. That makes him a heck of a value, and it’s just a matter of time before he’s $1,000 more in the coming weeks.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • LeBron James (LAL) $11,000: With AD out for the foreseeable future, James will keep running things for the Lakers. That’s clear when you see his 35 percent usage rate with him on the floor, and that was on full display when he had a ridiculous 71 FanDuel points on Friday. The matchup isn’t too shabby either, with Golden State playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.
  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $9,500: Butler has turned into a triple-double machine since coming off the COVID list, and it’s clear he wants to carry this team out of the hole they dug themselves. He’s now scored at least 38 FD points in 15-straight fixtures, averaging 21.9 points, 8.7 rebounds, 8.7 assists, and 1.7 steals per game in that span.
  • Julius Randle (NYK) $8,900: Randle earned himself an All-Star appearance with his stellar play, and it’s strange he remains below $9,000 on FanDuel. We say that because he’s scored at least 33 FD points in all but two games this season, averaging 44 fantasy points per game. That’s rough news for a Detroit team that surrenders the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.
  • Chris Paul (PHO) $7,500: CP3 was slow in adjusting to life with Devin Booker at the beginning of the season, but he’s totally over it now. The All-Star is averaging 42 FD points per game across his last nine outings, despite seeing limited minutes in four of those due to some blowouts. The best part might be the matchup, though, with Minnesota ranked 27th in points allowed.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $9,400: Westbrook has sat out a lot of back-to-backs this season, and with this being the fifth game of the week for the Wizards, it seems possible that he might sit here. That alone scares us, but a matchup with a stingy Boston defense makes him all the riskier. In their two meetings this season, Westbrook is averaging fewer than 33 FD points per game which is a horrific number from someone this pricey.
  • Jerami Grant (DET) $7,400: This is more about the matchup than anything. New York currently plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, which has allowed them to surrender the fewest points in the league. That’s scary for DFS purposes, especially with Grant taking a step back recently. He’s failed to crack 38 FD points in 11 of his last 15 games, and that’s about what you’d need from someone this expensive.
  • John Collins (ATL) $7,000: With Danilo Gallinari coming back and Clint Capela stealing all of the rebounds, Collins has seen his numbers dip drastically this season. In fact, he hasn’t scored more than 36 FD points in nine-straight outings, averaging just 27 fantasy points per game in that span. That really worries us against a Top-10 Miami defense.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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