FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Thursday (2/4)
It’s Thursday night in the Association, and we’ve got a great, five-game slate lined up on FanDuel. As always, we’ll name values, studs, and fades for the day’s DFS festivities. Let’s get right to it!
Most Value Per Dollar
As you’ll notice, Nuggets and Lakers are few and far between in this article, and that’s because that matchup has the lowest over/under of the night at just 219. The POR/PHI matchup features the night’s highest over/under but comes with a 9.5-point spread. On the other hand, MEM/HOU and DAL/GSW each have over/unders that exceed 223.5 and point spreads 3.5 points or less. The over/under in the UTH/ATL game comes in with an over/under in that range, but the spread is a little higher with Utah favored by 7.5. When the over/unders and point spreads are so close, it’s important to take advantage of favorable game environments and look for cheaper options who might be overlooked in those matchups.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
For a full list of over/unders and point spreads, visit BettingPros
John Wall (PG – HOU): $7,500 at MEM
With Victor Oladipo likely out tonight, Wall makes an excellent play at the point, in a matchup with Memphis that isn’t scary in the least bit. Expect the veteran guard to take on a heavier offensive load while going toe-to-toe with another one of our value plays, Ja Morant.
Ja Morant (PG – MEM): $7,400 vs. HOU
He’s coming off a dud, but what better way to bounce back than by facing a Houston team that has been mighty generous to opposing point guards? Morant has nightly double-double upside and can get hot from the field in an instant. This price tag is beautiful for a superstar looking to get right in a fantastic matchup.
John Collins (PF – ATL): $6,900 vs. UTH
Collins has taken a step back in his production this season in Atlanta’s crowded rotation, but make no mistake about it – the talent and upside are very much there. Across his last six games, Collins has posted at least 41 FD points three times. Clint Capela will have his hands full with Rudy Gobert, which should leave Collins with some more room to operate and some additional offensive opportunities. I love the sub-$7K price tag on tonight’s slate.
Gary Trent (SG – POR): $6,300 at PHI
Trent has cemented himself as Portland’s second option on offense behind Lillard (abdomen), and the latter is a GTD tonight. Even if he goes, Lillard is likely to be less than 100%, making Trent a highly-attractive option in what is projected to be the highest-scoring matchup of the night.
Eric Gordon (PG – HOU): $5,400 at MEM
Gordon gets PG eligibility tonight, and with Victor Oladipo likely sitting, it should be Gordon and Wall manning the backcourt for Houston in a friendly matchup with Memphis. Gordon can get hot quickly, especially if his three-point shot is falling, so he makes a fine tournament target.
Kelly Oubre (SF – GSW): $5,300 at DAL
Oubre gets a great matchup with Dallas tonight, and while his production has been up and down this season, he’s got 40-point upside. At just $5.3K, I’ll certainly grab some shares in tournaments.
Juan Toscano-Anderson (SF – GSW): $4,900 at DAL
Juan T scored 25.9 FD points across 26 minutes of action Tuesday with both James Wiseman and Kevon Looney out of action. With both of those players out again tonight, we should see more minutes from Toscano-Anderson and Eric Paschall, and both make great salary-saving options with sub-$5K price tags.
Kevin Huerter (SG – ATL): $4,500 vs. UTH
With De’Andre Hunter out of action, it’s been Huerter — not Cam Reddish — who has seen the biggest bump in playing time and production. The Maryland product has logged at least 38 minutes in back-to-back contests since Hunter left the lineup, and Huerter went off for 46.1 FD points in his last outing. Atlanta’s matchup with Utah isn’t the most friendly, but Huerter’s price tag is far too low to ignore.
Eric Paschall (C – GSW): $4,500 at DAL
As mentioned above with Juan T, Paschall should find himself looking at more minutes with the Warriors’ frontcourt hit hard with injuries. The second-year man has proven quite valuable off the bench already, but a bump in minutes should only make him that much more appealing. What’s even better is his eligibility at center, giving you plenty of flexibility elsewhere if you want to pay down at the position.
Anfernee Simons (PG – POR): $4,400 at PHI
Simons got banged up Tuesday and failed to provide any fantasy value, but we’re going back to the well with him tonight. Portland’s matchup with Philly has the highest over/under on the slate, and with Damian Lillard (abdomen) a GTD, we should see more of Simons tonight.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,200: Embiid has been absolutely dominant this season, and tonight, he’ll face a highly-undermanned Blazers frontcourt featuring the lackluster defense of Enes Kanter. Philly is playing on the second night of a back-to-back, so if Embiid is out, look to Dwight Howard as a value play and Ben Simmons as a bona fide stud.
- Christian Wood (HOU) $8,900: Memphis has been one of the worst teams in league against opposing big men this season, and Wood actually comes in at a discount, with his price falling below $9K. After he failed to score a single paint point in his last game, I expect Houston to correct that tonight. Take advantage of the price drop, and reap the benefits.
- Kristaps Porzingis (DAL) $7,500: Porzingis has 50-point upside every single night, and he’ll face a Warriors’ frontcourt missing its top-two options at center tonight. At just $7.5K, he makes an intriguing target on tonight’s slate.
Notable Players to Fade
- LeBron James (LAL) $10,700: He’s had some huge games this season, but the King has still averaged just slightly better than 46 FD points. It’s hard to pay nearly $11K for him, especially on such a small slate.
- Clint Capela (ATL) $8,800: Capela has consistently scored in the 40 FD point range over the last week, and he’ll face a difficult matchup with Rudy Gobert tonight that could see him remain in that range or underachieve relative to salary. There are better options available here.
- Jamal Murray (DEN) $7,800: It’s tough to trust Murray on most nights, but at nearly $8K on a small slate? No thanks. He’s taken a clear backseat to Nikola Jokic, and Murray just isn’t seeing the consistent high-level production we want from a star in DFS lineups.
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