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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Wednesday (2/17)

by Dan Titus | @dantitus | Featured Writer
Feb 17, 2021

Is another triple-double in Mason Plumlee’s cards?

We’re halfway through the week, and the NBA blessed us with a whopping 11-game slate for Wednesday night. With the Cavs and Spurs game getting postponed, we’re left with 10 games and a ton of options for tonight’s loaded schedule. As always, here are the studs, fades, and value plays to takedown your FanDuel contests. Let’s dive in.

Most Value Per Dollar

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. 

For a full list of over/unders and point spreads, visit BettingPros.

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Mason Plumlee (C – DET): $7,300 at CHI
Is another triple-double in Plumlee’s cards? Probably not, but that doesn’t mean he’s not an attractive play against the Bulls. Wendell Carter Jr. looks to be making his return, but the Bulls are third in pace and don’t play a lick of defense. He’s averaging 45.1 FD points in his last three, and he’ll be a nice option if you don’t want to pay up for some of the elite centers.

Lou Williams (SG – LAC): $6,800 vs. UTA
Sweet Lou has been terrific with Paul George out of the lineup, posting a crazy 38.9 FD points in his last five games. Williams should be the second option for the Clippers, assuming Kawhi Leonard (questionable) decides to suit up. If he doesn’t, look for him to put up at least 20 shot attempts and be the main distributor like he’s been in the previous two contests – where’s he’s delivered 20+ points and 10 assists.   

Kyle Anderson (SF – MEM): $6,500 vs. OKC
Recommending Anderson is never a sexy play, but numbers don’t lie. He’s put up an average of 35.5 FD points over his last five contests, and I love the matchup against the Thunder. Memphis is also playing on a back-to-back set and with Ja Morant’s minutes finally creeping over 30 min, Anderson may be leaned on to generate some offense. He offers solid mid-tier value, averaging 5.5x value in his past five games.

Darius Bazley (PF – OKC): $6,100 at MEM
He’s playing over 36 minutes per contest over his last five, and with the Thunder on the tail end of a back-to-back, there’s a good chance that Al Horford rests or plays fewer minutes against the Grizzlies. Bazley’s scored over 34 FD points in his past two and delivered 5x value in his last five. Give the third-year pro a look as he can contribute across all categories.

Anthony Edwards (SG – MIN): $6,000 vs. PHI
The number one overall pick of the 2020 NBA Draft is fresh off setting a new career-high against the Lakers with 28 points, seven boards, and five assists. He was one of the studs of Tuesday’s slate with 49.9 FD points, and over the last six games, Edwards is averaging 20 points per contest and seeing over 32 minutes per game. With DLo out, Edwards is a steal at this price point.

Hamidou Diallo (PG – OKC): $5,900 at MEM
Diallo is taking full advantage of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s absence and continues to stuff the stat sheet nightly. He’s averaging 14.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 3.0 assists over his last four games and finds himself in a good matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday. He’s scored at least 28 FD points in his last eight contests and has the ceiling of over 36 points tonight.

Jae’Sean Tate (PF – HOU): $5,800 at PHI
The injuries continue to mount for the Rockets, and with Oladipo, Gordon, and Wood all likely sitting out, Tate will likely see 30+ minutes yet again. Though he is really a shooting guard who is versatile enough to play multiple positions, continue to exploit his eligibility at power forward. He’s averaging 13.8 points and 5.6 rebounds while shooting 61.2 percent from the field across 33 minutes in his last five games.

Josh Hart (SF – NOP): $4,700 vs. NOP
I typically don’t recommend players on the back-end of a back-to-back set, but Josh Hart has played great off the bench for the Pelicans as of late. He’s averaging 30.5 min and 30.4 FP in his last five contests, a shade under a fantasy-point-per-minute. He dropped 27 points with nine rebounds, two assists, and six triples in a blowout last night and has a tasty matchup versus a Portland defense that ranks in the bottom-three defensively. 

Michael Carter-Williams (PG – ORL): $4,400 vs. NYK
With news of Cole Anthony being out until the All-Star break, MCW becomes fantasy relevant once again. He has no competition for minutes, and with Evan Fournier still dealing with back spasms, Carter-Williams is a bargain in a matchup versus the Knicks. He’s played an average of 28 minutes in his past two, but expect that to rise – along with his production. He scored 36.9 FD points one game ago, so his ceiling is right within that range.

Tomas Satoransky (PG – CHI): $4,100 vs. DET
The veteran backup PG is steadily grinding his way into the Bulls rotation and producing in limited minutes. He’s only seeing 22 minutes of action over his last five, but the results are undeniable. He’s averaged 25.6 FD points in his last five, with 28.4 in his past two contests. He’s a cheap option that’s been returning 6x value as of late, worthy of consideration for tonight’s large slate.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary 

  • Nikola Jokic (C – DEN) $10,500: Surprisingly, the Nuggets are only -3.5 favorites against the Wizards. I was initially concerned about this being a blowout, but assuming the Wizards’ fast-paced offense can trade shots with the Nuggets, Jokic will be inline for a big outing. After all, there is literally no one who can guard him, and he’s coming off a monster game, scoring 43 points with a triple-double the game prior. $10.5K is reasonably priced for Jokic’s production.
  • Nikola Vucevic (C – ORL) $9,700: Vucevic has a cake matchup against a depleted Knicks frontcourt. Only Nerlens Noel stands in the way of this double-double machine. He’s notched at least 60+ FD points in two of his last four, and it’s certainly in his cards on Wednesday.
  • Domantas Sabonis (PF – IND) $9,700: The Rockets, ranked 6th in pace, offer the Heat, ranked 23rd in pace, an opportunity for more possessions, which often leads to higher output. Butler has really taken control of the Miami offense since returning to the court two weeks ago. In his last six games, he’s averaging 21.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 1.7 steals in 34 minutes per contest. It’ll be hard to fade a scorching hot Butler in a pace-up game Thursday night.
  • Damian Lillard (PG – POR) $9,500: The implied total for this game is 231.5, and Dame has been one of the hottest scorers in the game lately. He’s scored over 30+ points in four of his last five coming into Wednesday while delivering over 52 FD points in his last two games. He gets a favorable matchup against the Pelicans, who are on the second leg of a back-to-back. It’s Dame Time.
  • Jimmy Butler (SG – MIA) $9,400: Since returning from IR, Jimmy Butler has been a walking bucket that’s flirted with a triple-double regularly. He’s returning 5.3x value in his last five games, and he gets a juicy matchup against the Warriors on Wednesday, who ranks second in the league in pace. With limited frontcourt depth, expect Butler to have a field day racking up stats against the Dubs.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Ben Simmons (PG – PHI) $9,600: Considering Simmons dropped a career-high 42 points on Monday, it could be a good time to ride the wave. However, with Joel Embiid likely to play, Simmons will go back to being a passive offense player that will contribute in rebounds, assists, and defensive categories. The offense plays through Embiid and Simmons won’t be worth the cost against Houston.
  • Trae Young (PG – ATL) $9,500: The Hawks take on the Celtics, who are extremely banged up in the frontcourt. Given Boston’s vulnerability, the game plan will likely flow through John Collins and Clint Capela. Young’s minutes are not a concern, but he’s only returning 4x value in his last five games, and given the matchup, other cheaper guards can be had.
  • Jayson Tatum (PF- BOS) $9,400: Tatum admitted that he is still experiencing symptoms from COVID-19 that affected his breathing and energy late into games. After putting up a 6/8/4 dud against Washington, he put together a good game in a win over Denver on Tuesday. However, he’s only been providing 4x value over the past five games, and there is better value out there for the cost.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Dan Titus is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive and follow him @DanTitus

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