FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Wednesday (2/24)
We have a nine-game slate on tap for tonight at FanDuel. The Los Angeles Lakers’ battle with the Utah Jazz serves as the headliner, but that’s not a game in which I’m targeting many stars. Instead, I have my eye on a low-profile game that screams value due to one team’s lack of available players.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Wednesday’s FanDuel slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
I had a difficult time evaluating tonight’s slate. There isn’t a clear-cut high-scoring game, as every betting total sits below 230. Of the two games with the highest totals, I prefer targeting players in MIN/CHI (229) to those in GSW/IND (229.5), although that’s mostly due to salary differential. You’ll find some Warriors and Pacers in the studs selection below.
The night’s biggest story is actually the game with the lowest posted total, SAS/OKC (216), because San Antonio would have to play it without multiple starters. There is a non-zero chance that this game gets postponed, but you can find some absolute bargains in the matchup if it doesn’t.
Jarrett Allen (CLE) $7,600
Fun fact: Allen is averaging 46.4 FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) over his last four appearances — that’s good for 6.1x value against this price! Meanwhile, he’ll face a Rockets team that remains without Christian Wood and just cut DeMarcus Cousins. Allen will have to play on the wrong end of a back-to-back, but he’s young enough for that not to matter.
Dejounte Murray (SAS) $7,500
Murray is one of two Spurs starters with a chance to play, and the other, LaMarcus Aldridge, is questionable. He is one of four healthy guards on the roster. That’ll thrust him into a high-volume role against the Thunder tonight, and no matter how low the final score ends up being, Murray should account for a ton of San Antonio’s offensive production.
Thaddeus Young (CHI) $6,600
I struggled to find a good power forward on this slate. Our DraftKings correspondent, Joel Bartilotta, couldn’t find one, either. My logic with this play is that the T’Wolves give up the most FDPPG to centers — even with Karl-Anthony Towns back in the lineup — and Young spends half of his time at the five. He has also hit or hovered around 5x value for his last five games.
Al Horford (OKC) $6,100
If this game gets played, the Spurs won’t have several bigs, and Horford could be lined up against Jakob Poeltl and Drew Eubanks. That makes him a smart target on this slate, especially at such a low price, because the Thunder should be content to take most of their points from inside the paint.
Coby White (CHI) $5,700
I don’t understand the White disrespect. White has hit 5x value against this price in his two most recent games. He has hit that value threshold in four of his last seven, too, with two of the misses coming in games that he missed part of due to in-game injuries. The T’Wolves give up the 12th-most FDPPG to point guards, and White should be in for another big game.
Mikal Bridges (PHO) $5,500
I also struggled to find a low-priced small forward on this slate, so we’re stuck with Bridges. He’ll take on the Charlotte Hornets, who give up the ninth-most FDPPG to the position, and he’ll probably line up against a banged-up Gordon Hayward. Bridges’ minutes have ticked down in recent days, but I have faith that Monty Williams was just giving his key players a bit of rest.
Wendell Carter Jr. (CHI) $5,400
Again, the T’Wolves give up the most FDPPG to centers, and Carter just throttled the Boogie-less Rockets for 47.1 FD points (8.7x value against this price). He may not hit that ceiling again, but he’s a smart player to feature in what should be a high-scoring contest.
Saben Lee (DET) $5,000
Lee has taken over at point guard for the Pistons with Delon Wright sidelined, and he has dropped 32-plus FD points in consecutive games (6.4x value). He’s a safe bet for similar production against the Pelicans, as they give up the third-most FDPPG to point guards.
Luguentz Dort (OKC) $4,400
With San Antonio’s banged-up roster, they won’t be able to maintain their sixth-best defense against shooting guards. Dort just needs 22 points to hit value here, and he has hit that threshold in five of his last eight appearances.
Lonnie Walker IV (SAS) $3,500
The Spurs are pressed for depth at guard, and Walker should end up getting a bunch of minutes behind Muray and Patty Mills. Walker posted some impressive numbers earlier in the year — including a 32.6 FD point (9.3x value against this price) showing against the Thunder — and he is the slate’s best value play at his minimum salary.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Stephen Curry (GSW) $10,000: I like Curry because of this game’s high posted total and Indiana’s league-average defense against point guards. Curry has scored 50-plus FD points in each of his last three outings, too.
- Domantas Sabonis (IND) $9,900: Even though the Warriors just got Kevon Looney and James Wiseman back, FantasyPros’ projections still expect a big game out of Sabonis, and Golden State’s defense still allows the eighth-most FDPPG to power forwards. In a slate devoid of value at the position, Sabonis could be worth spending up for.
- Bam Adebayo (MIA) $8,900: You could also go with Adebayo at power forward tonight. He will play in a much more attractive matchup, as the Raptors give up the third-most FDPPG to power forwards, where Adebayo spends half of his minutes.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) $7,500: I don’t think that SGA is a true value play at this salary, but he is a smart target against the depleted Spurs nonetheless. He might end up being a smarter play than Horford if LaMarcus Aldridge ends up playing, too.
Notable Players to Fade
- Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) $9,700: KAT’s inclusion here is purely due to the value that exists elsewhere at center. You shouldn’t pay up for the position tonight.
- Jaylen Brown (BOS) $8,400: Brown failed to hit 5x value against this price in his two games against the Hawks last week, and you shouldn’t expect him to turn things around and do so tonight.
- Donovan Mitchell (UTH) $8,300: The Lakers may be struggling, but they give up the third-fewest points per game to shooting guards. Mitchell isn’t worth the risk when you can find better value elsewhere.
- Kyle Lowry (TOR) $7,300: Lowry may not even play tonight, but if he does, I wouldn’t target the 34-year-old in his first game back from injury.
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