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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Saturday (2/27)

by Alex Burns
Feb 27, 2021

Steven Adams has been a monster since returning from injury.

Saturday is here, and with it comes a seven-game slate, ending with a primetime matchup between the Mavericks and Nets tipping off at 8:30 PM ET on ABC. With 14-teams scheduled to take the court, there will certainly be plenty of ways to go about constructing your lineups, but a few players seem to stick out above the rest. As always, let’s dive into the best values, fades, and studs for Saturday night’s DFS action.

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Most Value Per Dollar

When first glancing at Saturday’s slate, it’s clear that there are several ways to find value. For starters, San Antonio will once again be shorthanded as they have four key players already ruled out due to health and safety protocols, with DeMar DeRozan remaining day-to-day while tending to a personal matter. This will only elevate the roles of the remaining Spurs’, so continue reading to see who gets the biggest bump.

Tobias Harris won’t suit up against the Cavaliers, potentially opening up some usage in Philly, while Elfrid Payton is once again questionable to play against the Pacers. We all know what Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley did the last time he sat. These are the kind of developments worth chasing to find the greatest values.

As far as matchups go, both of the BKN/DAL and WAS/MIN showdowns currently have an over-under of at least 235, making these the two games to attack for DFS purposes. The SAS/NO matchup comes in third with an over-under of 226, while the IND/NY matchup boasts the lowest over-under on the slate at 216.5. Remember, the higher the over-under, the greater chance a player has to put up fantasy points. After all, that is the reason we play this game.

For a full list of odds and point spreads, visit BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Steven Adams (C – NO) $5,900
Adams has been a monster since returning from injury and has averaged 41.05 FanDuel points per game over his last two games. The Spurs currently have four players stuck in the league’s health and safety protocols and just listed LaMarcus Aldridge as questionable to play with a wrist issue. He should see plenty of Trey Lyles and Jakob Poeltl in the paint, and this could easily be a game where Adams grabs 15+ rebounds.

Jakob Poeltl (C – SAS) $5,900
His value is contingent on whether or not LaMarcus Aldridge will be able to play after being listed as questionable with a wrist injury. We all know what Poeltl is capable of when given the minutes, as he’s gone on to average nearly 9.0 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game without Aldridge in the lineup this season. If Aldridge does indeed sit, Poeltl is a lock for 6X value with his $5,900 price tag.

Rui Hachimura (SF – WAS) $5,800
Hachimura has been receiving heavy minutes for Washington and has produced quite nicely during their impressive hot streak. He’s seen no less than 36 minutes in five of his last six games and is averaging 28.2 FanDuel points per game during that span. As mentioned earlier, Saturday’s matchup with the Timberwolves has the second-highest over-under on the slate, and both teams rank in the bottom-7 when it comes to defensive efficiency. There’s a good chance Hachimura finds himself playing 35+ minutes in a shootout, and that makes him hard to pass up with his $5,800 price tag.

Darius Bazley (PF – OKC) $5,400
Bazley has been seeing a solid amount of playing time due to all of the injuries in Oklahoma City and is coming off of an 18-point, 12-rebound outing against the Hawks on Friday. The Nuggets provide another great matchup for Bazley, as they are surrendering the fifth-most FanDuel points to opposing power forwards this season. To make things even better, Paul Millsap will remain out, and Michael Porter Jr. will likely start at power forward on Saturday. To put it nicely, Porter Jr. isn’t known much for his defensive abilities.

Jalen Brunson (PG – DAL) $4,900
Brunson has been seeing a larger workload over his last six games, playing 27.5 minutes and averaging 16.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.3 rebounds. While Brooklyn has improved defensively throughout their eight-game win streak, it’s hard to imagine a better matchup for Brunson. This game currently has the highest over-under on the slate, and the Mavericks will likely need his offense to help keep pace with the blazing Nets.

Joe Harris (SF – BKN) $4,800
Harris has been the best three-point shooter in the NBA this season and gets a matchup against the Mavericks, who are giving up the second-most FanDuel points to opposing small forwards this season. Given that this game has the highest over-under on the slate, Harris will have plenty of opportunities to return plenty of value relative to his affordable $4,800 price tag.

Lonnie Walker IV (SG – SAS) $4,200
As previously mentioned, the Spurs still have a handful of guys in the league’s health and safety protocols, while DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are listed as questionable. All of these absences will open up the door for Walker to start and see a hefty workload. The Pelicans have the second-lowest defensive efficiency rating in the league this season, so Walker should have plenty of opportunities to produce.

Trey Lyles (PF – SAS) $4,000
Much like Lonnie Walker IV, Lyles’ value lies in the plethora of injuries currently plaguing the Spurs. With Keldon Johnson ruled out and LaMarcus Aldridge listed questionable, Lyles should see between 25-30 mins and should have no problem exceeding his value against a pathetic Pelicans defense.

Jaylen Nowell (PG – MIN) $3,700
This is solely a high-risk, high-reward type of play, as it’s certain Nowell won’t see more than 5% ownership due to his widely unknown status. The hope is that he sees a larger role with Malik Beasley suspended and D’Angelo Russell rehabbing his injured knee. So far this season, Nowell has seen a 24.5% usage rate in 196 minutes without Russell and Beasley off of the floor and is averaging 12.5 points over his last two games. This game has the second-highest over-under on the slate, so Nowell should have plenty of opportunities to produce value.

Ty Jerome (SG – OKC) $3,500
Jerome was called up from the G-league and immediately impressed during his season debut Friday. He put up nine points, five rebounds, seven assists, and two steals in 22 minutes and should see similar playing time against the Nuggets. Much like Nowell, this is a high-risk, high-reward play that should easily breeze past his minimum price on FanDuel.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Luka Doncic (PG – DAL) $10,600: With the DAL/BKN matchup on track to be the highest-scoring on the slate, it’s a good idea to roster as many studs from that game as possible. Luka’s price has dropped a bit after his 19-point outing in Thursday’s loss to the Sixers, so it would be wise to take advantage of the discount. The Mavericks will likely need Luka to score 30-35 points to keep pace with the Nets’ elite offense.
  • Karl-Anthony Towns (C – MIN): It’s taken Towns a while to get back into form after the long layoff, but a soft matchup against the Wizards should help. Washington is giving up the second-most FanDuel points to opposing centers this season, and the combination of Moritz Wagner, Alex Len, and Robin Lopez couldn’t slow down Towns even if they tried. This could truly be the first game of the season in which he goes bananas.
  • Russell Westbrook (PG – WAS) $9,400: Westbrook has been playing better as of late and hasn’t seen less than 47 FanDuel points in five of his last six games. The Timberwolves surrender the third-most FanDuel points to opposing point guards this season, so Westbrook could be in line for one of his monster triple-doubles in this one.
  • Dejounte Murray (PG – SAS) $8,200: Murray should continue running the show with DeMar DeRozan and LeMarcus Aldridge, both questionable play. , the Spurs will still be missing four guys stuck in the league’s health and safety protocols, so Murray should garner elite usage in an excellent matchup against the second-worst defensive efficiency team in the league.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Donovan Mitchell (SG – UTA) $8,300: Mitchell will be on the second leg of a back-to-back set after Friday’s loss to the Heat. While he managed to reach the 30-point mark for the fifth time this month, the Magic play at an extremely low pace and Mike Conley’s presence in the lineup should continue to limit his upside. I’d much rather pay up for James Harden ($10,600) and Bradley Beal ($9,600) or pay down for Shae Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,300).
  • Nikola Vucevic (C – ORL) $9,700: While Vucevic has been on a tear this season, Rudy Gobert is one of the toughest matchups he will see this season. I don’t necessarily think he’ll have a bad game, but priced at just under $10,000 will make it difficult for him to return the proper amount of value. I’d much rather pivot to Karl-Anthony Towns priced the same.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Alex Burns a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive and follow him @aburnshoops.

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