FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy: Wednesday (2/10)
After a relative underwhelming slate yesterday, we’ve got some more interesting matchups on tonight’s nine-game slate. Trae Young will battle with Luka Doncic again, and the Bucks’ game against the Suns should be a close, competitive affair.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Wednesday’s FanDuel slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Tonight’s slate should feature a boatload of high-scoring games. It’s up to you to figure out which games you’d like to target most, as four have totals above 230, per the BettingPros consensus odds. They include TOR/WAS (232.5), ATL/DAL (232), IND/BKN (235), and NOR/CHI (231). Of those, I’m especially partial to the Hawks and Mavericks, as the last game between them provided quite a few valuable fantasy assets. The Pacers should also be a strong target because the Nets are on the wrong side of a back-to-back.
I limit my value per dollar selections to players under $7,000, and I’ll try to emphasize players below $5,500 to help you find bargain-bin value so you can fit in some studs.
Myles Turner (IND): $6,800
Turner is remarkably affordable against the Nets. They give up the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) to opposing centers, and they surrendered a double-double to Mason Plumlee last night. Despite that, Turner sits solidly in the value range, and he should easily surpass 5x value.
Coby White (CHI): $5,600
White may not be as good of a three-point shooter as Zach LaVine, but the Pelicans allow the most three-pointers per game (15.3), and they give up the 12th-most FDPPG to opposing point guards. White is an affordable, high-upside option in this matchup.
Jeremy Lamb (IND): $5,600
The Nets don’t play defense, and Lamb should reap the benefits of their incompetence. The Nets allow the fourth-most FDPPG to shooting guards, the worst rate of any team on this slate.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (DAL): $5,200
Hardaway didn’t quite hit value against this price point when he last faced the Hawks, but his 25.8 FD points came close. He hasn’t scored fewer than 20 FD points over his last six outings, and he has decent upside in what should be a high-scoring matchup.
Kevin Huerter (ATL): $5,000
Unlike Hardaway, Huerter did hit value against this price point in his last game against the Mavs — he finished with a whopping 46 FD points! Huerter has hit 5x in his last three games, and he should maintain that streak tonight.
Serge Ibaka (LAC): $5,700
Ibaka has spent all his time at center this season, yet FanDuel still lists him as a power forward. That means you can exploit Minnesota’s league-worst defense against centers at one of your forward slots — as long as Karl-Anthony Towns doesn’t play through his doubtful tag. Ibaka scored 36.6 FD points when he faced the T’Wolves earlier this season.
Ivica Zubac (LAC): $5,500
Zubac is a solid pivot away from Ibaka if you like the Clippers tonight. He has hit 5x value against this price in two of his last three appearances, and he scored 27.3 FD points against Minnesota earlier in the year despite playing for just 18 minutes.
Davis Bertans (WAS): $4,200
I’ll wrap up with three low-end fliers in games with high projected totals. Bertans hasn’t been great in his return to action — he has hit 5x value only twice since he came back — but his time on the court points to some value here. Bertans started and played 37 minutes against the Bulls on Monday, and he should hit value with that workload if he can shoot a bit better from the field.
Jalen Brunson (DAL): $4,200
Brunson has returned to a rotational role for the Mavericks, but he posted strong numbers against the Hawks just last week — he put up 24.8 FD points in 24 minutes. That’s more than 5x value at his going rate, and he’s a great player to target since the Hawks give up the most FDPPG to point guards.
Danilo Gallinari (ATL): $3,800
Gallinari’s minutes have slowly ticked up since he returned to action in late January. While he only played 20 minutes against the Mavericks last week, he still posted a season-high 27.4 FD points, far above the value threshold at such a low-range price point. It’s worth noting that the Hawks have used him exclusively at power forward and center despite his positional eligibility.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,900: The Hawks give up the most FDPPG to point guards, and Doncic dropped 62.6 FD points against Atlanta last week, good for more than 5x value.
- Trae Young (ATL) $10,100: Young could’ve done better in his last game against the Mavs, but he has so much upside in what should be another high-scoring game that it’s hard to pass him up.
- Zach LaVine (CHI) $9,300: LaVine should take a ton of shots against this Pelicans defense. He averages 8.1 three-point attempts per game, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number jump into the double-digits tonight.
- Clint Capela (ATL) $8,300: The Mavs allow the fourth-most FDPPG to centers. Capela posted a double-double against them last week, and his 40.6 FD points were close enough to 5x for you to consider him again tonight.
- Gordon Hayward (CHA) $7,500: The Memphis Grizzlies give up the second-most FDPPG to small forwards. That means Hayward should feast tonight, and you won’t even have to burn that much salary to get him.
Notable Players to Fade
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,100: It’s always hard to fade Jokic, but Cleveland’s sixth-slowest pace of play makes that decision a bit easier. He isn’t worth his high-end salary tonight.
- James Harden (BKN) $10,600: Harden played 39 minutes in a losing effort against the Pistons last night. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Steve Nash give the 31-year-old superstar some rest, whether it takes the form of a night off or a minutes restriction.
- Khris Middleton (MIL) $7,600: I’m fading the Bucks tonight. The Suns play some of the best defense in the league (they rank fifth in defensive efficiency), and their fourth-slowest pace of play isn’t conducive to much scoring. They also allow the sixth-fewest FDPPG to point guards.
- Chris Paul (PHO) $7,500: Paul is questionable tonight with a sore hamstring. Even if he does play, don’t expect him to hit value.
- Thaddeus Young (CHI) $6,900: Chicago will have to do most of its scoring outside the paint, and Young probably won’t hit value.
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