Bonus FanDuel NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (2/17)
Most Value Per Dollar
Jamal Murray (DEN) $6,500
This price is just a bit too cheap to avoid Murray. He posted 41.2 FD points last night — good for 6.3x value — and he’ll play the Wizards tonight. Washington gives up the second-most FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) to point guards, and Murray should be fresh enough tonight to hit value.
Tyler Herro (MIA) $6,100
The Warriors give up the sixth-most FDPPG to shooting guards, and Herro should take advantage of that here. He dropped 43 FD points in his last game (7.1x value) after a string of underwhelming performances, but I’d look for him to keep building his momentum.
R.J. Barrett (NYK) $5,400
It feels a bit strange to target a player from the slate’s lowest-scoring matchup, but someone has to score points. Enter Barrett. He posted 40 FD points (7.4x value) and a double-double against the Magic back in mid-January.
Thaddeus Young (CHI) $6,200
The Detroit Pistons have shifted Blake Griffin to the bench, and with Young playing power forward with Lauri Markkanen out, the 32-year-old veteran could be in for a big game. He’s not a bad value option at a thin center position tonight.
Carmelo Anthony (POR) $5,100
Anthony is one of Portland’s freshest players heading into tonight. He played only 27 minutes in the win over the Thunder, compared to 37 for Robert Covington and 38 for Gary Trent. With the Blazers’ roster already so thin, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Anthony pick up some extra work to help ease the burden on Covington and Trent.
Isaiah Roby (OKC) $4,700
The 34-year-old Al Horford played 30 minutes last night against the Blazers, and he has sat in the second halves of Oklahoma City’s back-to-backs this season. That means Roby should get some extra playing time, and he may even draw the start at center. Roby finished with FD point totals of 35.4 and 25.8 in the two Horford-less back-to-backs he was around for, which points to value at this price.
Kelly Olynyk (MIA) $4,500
Olynyk had a terrible night against the Clippers, but you should take advantage of his newly-discounted price point. He had been scoring between 25 and 27 FD points for the prior seven games, which would equate to more than 5x value at this price, and he’ll take on the James Wiseman-less Warriors. It helps that Golden State gives up the 10th-most FDPPG to centers, too.
Seth Curry (PHI) $4,000
Seth Curry takes on the Rockets tonight, and they give up the most FDPPG to shooting guards. Shake Milton remains sidelined for the Sixers, so look for Curry to keep getting plenty of extra usage.
Payton Pritchard (BOS) $3,900
Pritchard posted 18.7 FD points against the Nuggets last night, which came up just short of 5x value against this price. Fortunately, he’ll have a good shot to bounce back tonight, as the Hawks give up the most FDPPG to point guards!
Bonus Studs Worth Their Salary
- Malcolm Brogdon (IND) $8,000: The T’Wolves allow the ninth-most FDPPG to point guards, and Brogdon should have a high-ceiling game against his relatively affordable price point.
- Jerami Grant (DET) $7,200: The post-Griffin Pistons will rely on Jerami Grant even more than they already did with Griffin in town. Grant should get a ton of usage against the Bulls here.
- Ja Morant (MEM) $7,100: Morant has double-doubled in three of his last four games. His one miss came last night against the Pelicans, but he posted a team-high 28 points in the loss. He should bounce back against a depleted Oklahoma City squad tonight.
Bonus Players to Fade
- Zach LaVine (CHI) $9,500: LaVine is coming off some phenomenal games. Unfortunately, that means his salary has ticked up, and he may not hit his ceiling against the slow-paced Pistons.
- Julius Randle (NYK) $9,000: Like LaVine, Randle is coming off a career game. That’s moved his price up, so you can feel good about fading him.
- Rudy Gobert (UTH) $8,000: I don’t want to touch Gobert against the slow-paced Clippers, especially since Kawhi Leonard might be back.
- Al Horford (OKC) $6,900: I expect Horford to sit out the second half of tonight’s back-to-back, so I wouldn’t plan on having him available tonight.
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