FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy: Wednesday (2/3)
The Clippers and Nets gave fans an exciting finish on last night’s slate, but with several teams on back-to-backs for this one, we’re less likely to see as many high-profile stars in action tonight. Instead, tonight’s value exists elsewhere.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Wednesday’s FanDuel slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
The Nets won’t play tonight, so we can’t just stack some Brooklyn players with whoever they’re playing. Instead, I’m targeting two games that I think should be high-scoring. First, the Wizards and Heat have the second-highest projected total tonight (229.5), per the BettingPros’ consensus odds tool, so their players should be safe to target, although I am a bit worried about the back-to-back. Second, even though the Thunder and Rockets don’t have the highest projected total (220.5), both teams rank top-10 in possessions per game, so I expect a fast-paced, high-scoring battle. That said, the Rockets blew out the Thunder on Monday, so I’ve limited my plays to guys who should see lots of run regardless.
I limit my value per dollar selections to players under $7,000, and I’ll try to emphasize players below $5,500 to help you find bargain-bin value so you can fit in some studs.
Malik Beasley (MIN) $6,500
Beasley is coming off a pair of down games against the Cavs, but he had hit 5x value in two of his prior matchups. The Spurs have been quite generous to small forwards (although less so to shooting guards, which is where Beasley spends most of his time on the court), and he could return to his high-value ways tonight — especially since they must compensate for an absent LaMarcus Aldridge.
Tyler Herro (MIA) $6,000
Herro dropped 41.8 FD points when these teams last met in early January. At just $6,000, he doesn’t need to come close to that mark to hit value. Herro should have another big performance against the Wizards tonight, and you shouldn’t be worried about his knee injury — the Heat have him listed as probable, and he’s played in their last three games.
Marvin Bagley III (SAC) $5,900
The 6-foot-11 Bagley should exploit a relatively small Celtics team tonight. Boston surrenders the eighth-most FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) to power forwards, too, which helps Bagley’s case. He needs just 29.5 points to hit value, and that’s very attainable as long as he can stay out of foul trouble.
Jakob Poeltl (SAS) $4,800
With Aldridge out for the Spurs, Poeltl is in line for expanded minutes tonight. He’s in a fantastic spot for them, too, as the KAT-less Timberwolves give up the most FDPPG to centers. He’s easily the best value at center tonight.
Theo Maledon (OKC) $4,800
The Thunder won’t have guards George Hill or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight, and that leaves Maledon as the primary ball-handler for Oklahoma City. Maledon exploded for 24 points and 34.1 FD points against the Nets last Friday, and I expect similar production from him against the fast-paced Rockets.
Rui Hachimura (WAS) $4,700
The Heat give up the ninth-most FDPPG to power forwards (where Hachimura plays 73% of the time) and the seventh-most FDPPG to small forwards. That leaves Hachimura in a strong position for tonight, especially since he’s hit 5x value against this price in six of his 10 appearances.
Goran Dragic (MIA) $5,800
I love Dragic here. He came very close to hitting value against them last time, finishing with 27.9 FD points over just 19 minutes. My main concern with him is that he shot poorly in his first game back, so there is some risk that his struggles from the field continue.
Davis Bertans (WAS) $4,300
Again, the Heat have been vulnerable to opposing forwards, and I expect plenty of points in what Vegas projects to be a high-scoring battle between these two squads. Bertans’ minutes make him an appealing volume option, as he’s played 30-plus over his last two games.
Hamidou Diallo (OKC) $4,300
I’ll wrap up with two fliers from the Thunder and Rockets. Diallo posted 26.4 FD points against Houston on Monday, and he played just 15 minutes. He’s sure to get more run with both Hill and SGA sidelined, so look for him to hit 5x value against this surprisingly low price point.
Danuel House Jr. (HOU) $3,900
House posted 25.3 FD points in the first matchup between these teams, and he’s played at least 25 minutes over his last two games. At just $3,900, House doesn’t even need to score 20 points to hit 5x value, and he’s a great punt at shooting guard who won’t lose value even in a blowout.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Luka Doncic (DAL) $11,500: The Hawks give up the third-most points to opposing point guards, and Hawks fans are in for another reminder of what could’ve been when Doncic takes the court tonight. Doncic possesses slate-winning upside; he has three games with 60-plus points over his last 10 appearances.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $11,200: The Pacers and Bucks have the highest projected total on tonight’s slate (232.5), and Giannis should do a lot of the damage for Milwaukee tonight.
- Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,200: If you’re spending up at center, Embiid is the way to go. The Hornets give up the 14th-most FDPPG to the position, and none of the slate’s other centers combine slate-winning upside with a decent matchup.
- Gordon Hayward (CHA) $7,400: The Sixers give up the third-most FDPPG to small forwards, and Hayward will have to carry the load for the Hornets tonight.
- DeMar DeRozan (SAS) $7,200: With Aldridge sidelined, the Spurs will need DeRozan to step up against the T’Wolves. He hasn’t hit 5x value in three games, but I expect a bounce-back from him due to the circumstances.
Notable Players to Fade
- Russell Westbrook (WAS) $10,000: I’m fading Westbrook in the second games of back-to-backs until we see him play in one.
- Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $9,400: Leonard may no longer always sit out the second half of a back-to-back, but he just played 38 minutes against the Nets, so I don’t see him doing much tonight.
- Andre Drummond (CLE) $8,800: Drummond is questionable with a back strain that kept him out of Monday’s game, and with the talented Jarrett Allen right behind him, the Cavs are unlikely to feature him heavily against the Clippers.
- Chris Paul (PHO) $8,000: With Devin Booker back, Chris Paul is in line for a smaller role and fewer points. Expect his price to correct accordingly over the next few games.
- Buddy Hield (SAC) $6,700: Hield’s salary has swelled after consecutive games against the league’s second-worst three-point defense, but he’ll come crashing back down to earth against a Celtics team that ranks top-10 in three-pointers allowed.
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