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FanDuel PGA Lineup Advice: Genesis Invitational (2021)

FanDuel PGA Lineup Advice: Genesis Invitational (2021)

The PGA Tour will stay in California for the Genesis Invitational. This may not be a major, but the field is stacked, and you should be able to construct a lineup that you feel good about.

FanDuel has nine golfers priced at or above $11,000 this week. DFS players have a salary cap of $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. Dustin Johnson ($12,100) is the only golfer in the 12K range. Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are close behind at $11,900 and $11,800, respectively. Justin Thomas ($11,700) and Xander Schauffele ($11,500) round out FanDuel’s top-five highest-priced golfers.

Work at having a solid process week in and week out instead of getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. The best golfers will perform at a high level throughout the course of a season. However, from week-to-week, a major variance can occur. Any professional golfer is capable of winning. Likewise, even great players can miss the cut.

Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun!

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Tournament Notes

  • The Genesis Open is played at the Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California. The course is a Par-71, and it measures 7,322 yards. The fairways are narrow, and the poa greens are small.
  • This is an invitational event, so the field will be much smaller (120 players). After the first two days, the top 65 (and ties) will make the cut and advance to the weekend.
  • Previous winners of the event that are scheduled to play this week include Adam Scott (2020 & 2005), J.B. Holmes (2019), Bubba Watson (2018, 2016, 2014), Dustin Johnson (2017), James Hahn (2015), and Charles Howell (2007).
  • This event has some of the hardest to hit fairways (53 percent compared to the Tour average of 61 percent).
  • Combining the course’s length with the small greens, Genesis typically has some of the lowest GIR rates on the PGA Tour (56 percent compared to the tour average of 66 percent).
  • The first hole (a 503-yard par 5) has the highest birdie or better rate on Tour (60 percent). It also gives up the most eagles of any hole on the PGA Tour.
  • The average winning score for the last 15 years has been 12-under par, and the average cut line has been 2-over par. The best score in the last 15 years was DJ’s 17-under par in 2017. Adam Scott won by two strokes last year when he shot an 11-under.
  • The course plays longer than the yardage indicates, as the two par 5s are some of the shortest on Tour, leaving the par 4s to make up much of the sneaky distance. There are seven par 4s measuring at least 450 yards, leaving the golfers with longer approach shots than usual. However, scoring will be plentiful on the par 5s. Hole No. 1 saw an astounding 73 percent Birdie-or-Better rate last year, and Hole No. 11 had a 35 percent Birdie-or-Better rate.

Course Fit & Key Statistics

Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all key stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. From a stats perspective, this week’s best golfers (in ranked order) are Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Joaquin Niemann, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, and Corey Conners.

Approach Game
The greens are among the smallest on the PGA Tour, and players who can consistently hit a high number of greens in regulation will have an advantage. Traditionally, the golfers who have the best approach game and can stick the ball close — hitting a higher number of greens in regulation — fare better at this tournament. In looking at both short and long-term form, the ten golfers with the best approach game, especially from 175-200 yards (in ranked order), are Keegan Bradley, Kyle Stanley, Collin Morikawa, Russell Knox, Corey Conners, Marc Leishman, Kevin Streelman, Francesco Molinari, Justin Thomas, and Dustin Johnson.

Recent Form
The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) are Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, Henrik Norlander, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Davis, and Jon Rahm. Among the golfers in this week’s field, Rory McIlroy has the longest streak of PGA Tour made cuts with 25. Xander Schauffele is next with 21 straight PGA cuts. Viktor Hovland (19), Jon Rahm (16), and Justin Thomas (14) round out five golfers with the longest streaks. Tony Finau and Joaquin Niemann are the only other golfers with double-digit streaks. Both have made 10 straight PGA cuts.

Course History
I tend to emphasize baseline talent and recent form, but there is a lot to be said for golfers that enjoy playing at specific courses. Some courses just line up better for some golfers. Comfortability with the way a golf course plays can give a golfer confidence going into the week. The ten golfers that rate out the best in my course history model include Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott, Rory McIlroy, Bubba Watson, Matt Kuchar, Sung Kang, Justin Thomas, Jason Kokrak, J.B. Holmes, and Patrick Cantlay.

Official World Golf Ranking
All the statistics and course history are useful to know, but sports (particularly DFS golf) often come down to betting on talent and playing the best overall players. Sure, salary is involved, but fitting as many of the world’s best golfers in your lineups increases your chances for success. According to the OWGR, the best ten golfers in this field (in ranked order) are Dustin Johnson (No. 1), Jon Rahm (No. 2), Justin Thomas (No. 3), Xander Schauffele (No. 4), Collin Morikawa (No. 6), Patrick Cantlay (No. 8), Bryson DeChambeau (No. 10), Brooks Koepka (No. 12), Daniel Berger (No. 13), and Viktor Hovland (No. 14).

Favorite $11,000+ Plays

Dustin Johnson ($12,100)
The world’s number one golfer has four wins and three runner-ups in his last 10 events. His worst finish during that stretch is a T12 way back in August at the WGC-St. Jude. When DJ is playing well, I play him. Simple as that. Here at Riviera, he has made 11/13 cuts with six top-five finishes. He has top-10 finishes each of the last two years.

Xander Schauffele ($11,500)
Xander is on fire right now. His back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Waste Management, and Farmers gives him six top-five finishes in his last eight events. The other two starts during this stretch led to a pair of T17 finishes. Not too shabby.

Overall, none of the high-priced guys are bad, and a case can be made for any of them. I will sprinkle all of them into my MME builds, mixing and matching my favorite mid-to-low priced plays. For my main GPP lineup, however, I will most likely jam in the two guys that are projected to be the lowest owned of this bunch.

Favorite $10,000 Plays

Tony Finau ($10,900)
All he has done in his three starts this calendar year is finish fourth at the American Express, T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and T2 behind a red-hot DJ at the Saudi Invitational. He has made the cut here the last three years, including a runner-up finish in 2018.

Adam Scott ($10,600)
He doesn’t play much, but he is coming in with a streak of nine straight made cuts. His most recent outing was a T10 at the Farmers Insurance. That has been his only top-10 during this streak, but we know the upside is there for the defending champion and former world’s number one golfer. We also know that he likes playing this course. He has made 11/12 cuts here, including two wins and two runner-up performances. Other 10K golfers I may consider playing are Viktor Hovland ($10,700), Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400), Joaquin Niemann ($10,100), and Scottie Scheffler ($10,000).

Favorite $9,000 Plays

Max Homa ($9,900)
Two straight made cuts here, including a T5 last year, combined with good form, gives me confidence in him this week. Homa has made the cut in seven of his last eight starts, including five in a row. He has four top-25 finishes during this recent streak, including a T7 last week at Pebble Beach.

Cameron Tringale ($9,300)
He has made the cut in eight of his last nine starts, including six in a row. He is currently on a streak of three straight top-20 finishes, including a T7 at Pebble Beach last week. He does have a T8 here back in 2018. Other 9K golfers I will be considering are Carlos Ortiz ($9,700), Will Zalatoris ($9,700), Abraham Ancer ($9,500), Cameron Davis ($9,300), Sam Burns ($9,100), and Maverick McNealy ($9,000)

Favorite $8,000 Plays

Henrik Norlander ($8,900)

He has been trending toward a win for some time now. I don’t think he wins this week because the field is too strong, but I believe he will be near the leaderboard on Sunday. He has four made cuts in a row, and the worse was last week’s T26. He is hitting the ball great right now but is up-and-down with the putter. He tends to play well at more challenging courses instead of birdie-fests, so this week should fit him better.

Matthew NeSmith ($8,400)
His ball-striking and approach game always seems to be on, but it’s his inconsistent flat stick that concerns us. Lately, that has been fine, which has led to a T16 last week and a T7 at the Waste Management. He has gained strokes with the putter five times in his last nine starts. Each of those resulted in a top-20 finish. I must say, though, that I really like the 8K range and other golfers I will be considering are Corey Conners ($8,900), Brian Harman ($8,800), K.H. Lee ($8,700), Wyndham Clark ($8,600), Nate Lashley ($8,500), Matt Jones ($8,300), Charles Howell ($8,200), and Doug Ghim ($8,200). I would not be disappointed to play any of these golfers this week.

Favorite $7,000 Plays

Sung Kang ($7,600)
This is purely a GPP-type play, but Kang has made the cut here in each of the last five years. Included in that are four top-25 finishes, including a runner-up last year and a T8 in 2016. He has only made three cuts in his last eight starts, but one of those was last week at Pebble Beach. It seems like ages ago, but he finished T2 here last year and then two weeks later finished T9 at the API. He is a former winner on the PGA Tour, so there is upside in his game.

Brendan Steele ($7,000)
Someone at FanDuel was asleep at the wheel this week. Steele is essentially a free square this week. He has made four straight cuts finishing at least T34 in all of them, including a T4 at the Sony. He has made the cut here in three of his last four starts. Don’t overthink this one. The 85th ranked player in the world is minimum priced (by the way, he is $7,100 on DK). Other 7K golfers I may consider include Vaughn Taylor ($7,900), J.B. Holmes ($7,800), Doc Redman ($7,800), Adam Long ($7,700), Jim Furyk ($7,600), and Brian Stuard ($7,500).

Check out the FREE betting guide for the Genesis Invitational at BettingPros partner-arrow

Whether you’re new to daily fantasy golf or a seasoned professional, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Golf Glossary. You can get started with The Stats That Matter Most or head to a more advanced strategy — like How To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup  — to learn more.

Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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