DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Sunday (3/14)
Wow — the NBA saw a record five triple-doubles last night! I hope you had Giannis Antetokounmpo, Russell Westbrook, Domantas Sabonis, James Harden, or Julius Randle in your lineups last night. While you can rest assured that we won’t see that happen again tonight, we should still see some high-scoring performances.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Sunday’s DraftKings slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
On tonight’s six-game slate, most matchups are projected to be at least somewhat high scoring. Two games have totals above 230: POR/MIN (233.5) and LAC/NOR (232.5). Another, TOR/CHI (229.5), sits closely behind. Two of the other games, CLE/ATL (222) and BOS/HOU (222), aren’t far behind.
Only one game should be low-scoring, and that’s MIA/ORL (208). As a result, you can expect to see lots of players from the first set of games, especially Clippers and Bulls. You can find the most recent totals at BettingPros.
Injury-wise, the Clippers won’t have Patrick Beverley, and the Raptors, Magic, and Rockets all remain without a number of starters. Most of Toronto’s key players (especially Norman Powell) have seen their salaries trend upward, so I’m targeting players from Houston and Orlando instead.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary, ranked in order of how much they’ll cost you.
Paul George (LAC) $8,100
When George last played the Pelicans, he dropped 27 points (five made threes), six rebounds, and six assists. The Pelicans have struggled on the perimeter all season, as they surrender the most made threes per game, and that’ll help George hit value tonight. His salary has trended down of late, too, making him all the more appealing in what should be a high-scoring battle.
Enes Kanter (POR) $6,900
Kanter is averaging a double-double per game, and he has looked fantastic in relief of Jusuf Nurkic. He’ll play the T’Wolves tonight, and Minnesota surrenders the most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to opposing centers. That’s a matchup made in heaven for Kanter, who just posted 38.3 DK points (5.6x value against this price) against the T’Wolves last night.
Coby White (CHI) $6,400
White will move to the second unit tonight, and while it’s somewhat concerning that he won’t draw the start, he could benefit from not having to compete with Zach LaVine as much. The Raptors field a mid-pack defense against opposing point guards, but they won’t have their two best defensive players (Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby, per FiveThirtyEight), so I’m not worried.
Goran Dragic (MIA) $6,200
Dragic has been solid in recent days. The Dragon posted 41.3 DK points (6.7x value against this price) in his last outing, and he’ll play the depleted Orlando Magic tonight. The Dragon didn’t do much in Miami’s first matchup with Orlando, but he struggled with his accuracy. I expect him to bounce back and have a better night shooting tonight. And since the Magic surrender the third-most DKPPG to point guards, Dragic should be a solid investment.
Lauri Markkanen (CHI) $6,200
I’m not entirely sure what Chicago is trying to do by adjusting their lineup, but Toronto gives up the second-most DKPPG to power forwards, so Markkanen should be a viable contributor tonight. Markkanen has hit 5x value in his last two outings, his first games back from the injury that sidelined him for over a month.
Kevin Porter Jr. (HOU) $5,000
KPJ’s price has ticked up to reflect his role on Houston’s depleted roster more accurately, but he is still worth the risk. He has only played two games for Houston, but he posted DK point totals of 47.8 (9.6x value against this price) and 42.3 (8.7x value) in those outings. He’ll regress eventually, but he can still hit value with only 25 DK points tonight.
Lou Williams (LAC) $4,800
Williams could see some extra usage with Patrick Beverley sidelined. The last time Beverley missed a game, Williams played 35 minutes and posted a double-double. And since the Pelicans allow the second-most DKPPG to point guards, Williams has a chance to post similar numbers tonight.
Dwayne Bacon (ORL) $4,600
Bacon will continue to play extra minutes due to Orlando’s laundry list of injuries. He posted 28.8 DK points (6.3x value) against the Heat last Thursday, and I expect him to post at least 25 points tonight. The game’s low projected total is a bit concerning, but the Heat and Magic combined for only 214 the last time they met, and Bacon hit value anyway.
Tomas Satoransky (CHI) $3,200
I have two full-send plays to round out this week’s article. First up is Satoransky. The Bulls will move him into the starting lineup tonight, and if that translates into extra minutes, Satoransky could easily hit value against this low-end price point. He needs just 16 DK points to do so, and it shouldn’t be hard for him to do that versus the depleted Raptors.
Mo Bamba (ORL) $3,200
Bamba, like Bacon, has seen his minutes increase because of Orlando’s injuries. He most recently played 19 against the Spurs, and he posted 20.3 DK points (6.3x value) in that game. He also posted 16.8 (5.3x value) against the Heat on Thursday. Bamba doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he can save you a lot of cap space at a salary this low.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Nikola Vucevic (ORL) $9,900: I’m going against what I usually do by recommending so many players in what should be a low-scoring game between the Heat and Magic. That said, Vucevic dropped 51.3 DK points (5.2x value against this price) when he played Miami last Thursday, and Bam Adebayo‘s continued absence makes his job significantly easier.
- Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $9,800: Leonard and Paul George led the charge for Los Angeles the last time they played the Pelicans. Leonard finished with 28 points (two made threes), six rebounds, and nine assists in the matchup.
- Jimmy Butler (MIA) $9,400: Butler has looked great with Adebayo sidelined. He posted 62.5 DK points (6.6x value against this price) on Thursday, which also points to value relative to this salary.
Notable Players to Fade
- Jayson Tatum (BOS) $9,500: I’m fading Boston’s stars tonight for two reasons. First, I suspect that they’ll blow out the Rockets, as Houston hasn’t won a game since Feb. 4. Second, Marcus Smart’s return has left fewer points to go around, capping Tatum (and Brown’s) upside.
- Zion Williamson (NOR) $8,600: The Clippers give up the fewest DKPPG to power forwards. I don’t expect him to make enough of a difference to warrant his high-end salary tonight.
- Jaylen Brown (BOS) $8,200: See Tatum, Jayson.
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