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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Monday (3/1)

Mar 1, 2021

DeMar DeRozan should be asked to do even more with so many players missing.

How crazy is it that we’re halfway through the season? This is the final Monday before the All-Star break, and it’s been an absolute sprint to get to this point. I’ve really enjoyed writing articles for you guys, and I hope I’ve made you some dough! This will be a busy week, though, so let’s finish this first half strong!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

This is an extraordinary slate. We have almost every team as a road favorite, but none of the spreads are too monstrous. The biggest ones are the two home favorites, with Philadelphia and Portland both expected to take care of business. That should force some close games, which is big news for us DFS players. What’s also interesting is that we have tons of superstars available. That means picking the right ones will be key, and you’ll see which ones we like in the studs section later on!

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

DeMar DeRozan (SAS) $8,400:
DeRozan has already been running the show for the Spurs, but he should be asked to do even more with so many players missing. They’re currently without Keldon Johnson, Rudy Gay, and Derrick White, leaving DeRozan to feast. In the first game without those guys, DD provided 32 points and 11 assists. That’s actually the fifth time he’s cracked 42 DraftKings points in his last seven outings, and that should be relatively easy here against a 28th-ranked Brooklyn defense.

Myles Turner (IND) $6,200:
Turner has been way too cheap on DraftKings all season long. That’s on full display when you see his 35-point average for the season, and it’s hard to understand why he remains so affordable. It’s not like he’s been bad recently either, averaging 34 DK points per game across his last seven outings. The matchup against Philly is slightly concerning, but Turner is a near guarantee for 35 minutes with someone needing to guard Joel Embiid.

Gordon Hayward (CHA) $7,300:
Hayward has been struggling a bit recently, but it’s lowered his price way too much. We’re still talking about a guy who’s averaging 36.4 DK points per game for the season, which got his price tag north of $8K just a few weeks back. If you get that total from someone at $7,300, you’re already way ahead of the pack. It seems all the more likely in this matchup, with Portland ranked 29th in defensive efficiency.

Rudy Gobert (UTH) $7,400:
Gobert is in this section almost every day for me, and it’s easy to see why. He’s sat south of $8K all season long, and it simply makes no sense. This guy has scored at least 29 DraftKings points in 31 of his 34 games this season, averaging 40 fantasy points per game. That’s all you can ask for from a $7,400 player, and we certainly love that he faces a 25th-ranked New Orleans defense. In one meeting earlier this season, Rudy had 13 points, 18 rebounds, and three blocks against this dreadful defense.

Michael Porter (DEN) $7,000:
Porter really struggled in returning from the COVID list, but he’s starting to find his groove now. He’s actually recorded double-doubles in three-straight games, scoring at least 28 DK points in five of his last six outings. A major reason for that is the increased role, with Gary Harris, Paul Millsap, and JaMychal Green all sidelined. We love all of that against a Chicago team that ranks sixth in pace and 23rd in total defense.

Robert Covington (POR) $5,700:
Covington was terrible in the first month, but he’s on fire right now. Despite struggling with his shot, RoCo is averaging 28 DK points per game across 33 minutes a night over his last 13 fixtures. That’s the defensive stud we’ve been waiting for, and it’s scary to think how good he could be if he’s actually knocking down some shots. One reason we believe that can happen here is the matchup, with Charlotte surrendering the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing power forwards.

LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS) $6,200:
With all of the San Antonio absences we mentioned above, Aldridge has found himself in an expansive role once again. In his two games since his return, LA is averaging 28 fantasy points per game. Despite seeing limited minutes, he’s done that damage, and one has to believe he can get that average north of 30 if his minutes creep up as we expect. We obviously love the matchup, too, with the Nets surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

P.J. Washington (CHA) $6,200:
Washington has been inconsistent all year, but injuries have played a major factor in that. He appears to be fully healthy now, though, dropping 43 DK points on Friday in one of the best performances of his career. He’s actually reached 30 fantasy points in half of his games this season, and that’s really all you can hope for from a guy sitting around $6K. We believe he’ll reach that total again versus subpar Portland defense.

Michael Carter-Williams (ORL) $5,400:
This one is risky, but MCW is the starting point guard in Orlando. That alone makes him worth a shot, averaging over 28 minutes a night in his eight starts. He’s also scored at least 17 fantasy points in each of those, and that’s a heck of a floor from a player barely cracking $5K. The matchup is the main reason we like him, though, with Dallas sitting 26th in defensive efficiency.

Danuel House (HOU) $5,700:
The Rockets have played small-ball all year, and it seems like they never have a full lineup. That has forced House into a huge role, playing at least 33 minutes in back-to-back games. That has led to House scoring at least 20 fantasy points in eight of his last 11 games, averaging over 27 DK points per game in his recent three-game spurt. We’re certainly not concerned about him facing Cleveland either, ranked 29th in defensive efficiency for the month of February.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • James Harden (BKN) $11,000: With Kevin Durant out of the lineup, Harden is in full-on beast mode. That’s on display when you see that he’s averaging 28 points, 8.9 rebounds, 10.8 assists, and 1.3 steals over his last eight games played. That’s the stud we remember from his Houston days, and he should have no problem duplicating that against a Spurs team with half of their roster missing. In his two meetings with them last season, Harden averaged 65 fantasy points per game.
  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,800: Jokic is the league leader in fantasy points, and a triple-double on Saturday shows just why. He actually recorded that bad boy in just three-quarters of action, bringing his season average to 59 DK points per game. That’s bad news for a Chicago team with a beat-up frontcourt and ranks 24th in total defense.
  • Damian Lillard (POR) $10,400: With C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic both out, Lillard runs things in Portland. That’s always been the case, but his usage rate is approaching 35 percent with those guys off the floor. That monster role has led to Lillard scoring at least 48 DraftKings points in 16 of his last 19 games, averaging 50 fantasy points per game in that span. We certainly don’t mind that he faces a 21st-ranked Hornets defense either.
  • John Wall (HOU) $8,300: Wall has also benefited from all of Houston’s absences, regaining the role that made him an All-Star in Washington. That has allowed him to score at least 34 fantasy points in 13 of his last 14 games, averaging over 37 DK points per game in that span. He’s done that despite being blown out in many of those, and that shouldn’t be an issue here against a bad Cleveland team. If he ends up resting and Victor Oladipo returns, ride him instead!

Notable Players to Fade

  • Brandon Ingram (NOR) $8,400: With Zion Williamson and Lonzo Ball breaking out, BI has taken a step back to allow them to feast. Over his last 11 games played, Ingram’s usage has dropped by about five percent, averaging 38 DK points per game in that span. That’s a decent average in that stretch, but it’s hard to imagine him reaching that here against a Utah team that has the second-best defense in the NBA.
  • Joe Ingles (UTH) $5,700: Ingles had a nice game filling-in for Mike Conley on Saturday, but with the point guard returning here, he will likely move back to the bench. That’s bad news because Ingles is averaging just 20 DK points per game as a bench player, which is a far cry from his 29-point average as a starter.
  • Seth Curry (PHI) $5,300: Curry is in a bit of a slump right now, averaging just 21 DK points per game on 29 percent shooting over his last four fixtures. That’s really scary, particularly when you see that he faces a Top-10 Indiana defense here. In his last meeting with the Pacers, Curry dropped 12.5 DK points in one of his worst games of the year.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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