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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (3/24)

DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (3/24)

We’ve had some crazy slates, and this one will definitely fall in that category. We’re one day away from the trade deadline, and it’s hard to know what to expect. That’d make any slate tough to configure, but we get 11 games on the docket here! That’s a monstrous schedule, and it’s going to be critical to keep your eyes and ears on the news up until 7ET!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Most Value Per Dollar 

With so many games on this slate, there’s obviously value at every position. I’m going to do my best to offer up plays across the board and pick players at different positions. With that said, the center position is once again the one with the most value. It’s going to be hard to avoid having two centers in your lineup because that’s the easiest way to squeeze in all of these value plays and a couple of studs.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Name (TEAM) POSITION OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
PG vs. ATL $9,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Mason Plumlee (DET) C at IND $5,900 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Gordon Hayward (CHA) SF/PF at HOU $7,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Richaun Holmes (SAC) PF/C vs. ATL $7,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Devonte’ Graham (CHA) PG/SG at HOU $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
DeAndre Jordan (BKN) C at UTH $5,000 ⭐⭐ High
Tomas Satoransky (CHI) PG/SG vs. CLE $4,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Brook Lopez (MIL) C vs. BOS $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Donovan Mitchell (UTH) PG/SG vs. BKN $8,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Josh Richardson (DAL) SG/SF at MIN $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $9,000:

Fox is honestly one of the best players in fantasy right now, and he’s not being priced like it. He’s actually scored at least 33 DraftKings points in 28 of his last 29 games, averaging 26.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 8.4 assists, and 1.3 steals per game in that span. Numbers like those seem like a strong possibility in a matchup like this, with Atlanta owning a 28th OPRK against opposing point guards this season.

Mason Plumlee (DET) $5,900:

This disrespect for Plumlee is getting ridiculous. Ever since the Blake Griffin trade, Plumdog has been playing at a $7K level. In fact, he’s averaging 37 fantasy points per game across his last 17 outings. He’s been doing that in some limited minutes, too, and it makes it hard to believe he remains so cheap.

Gordon Hayward (CHA) $7,900:

Now that LaMelo Ball is out of the picture, this is Hayward’s show now. With the Rookie of the Year candidate off the floor, Gordon has a 26 percent usage rate while averaging 1.1 DK points per minute. That was on full display when he dropped a 47-spot in the one game without Ball on Monday. Not to mention, Houston obviously has one of the worst defenses in basketball behind their 1-20 record over the last month or so.

Richaun Holmes (SAC) $7,100:

Seriously, when are these guys going to price Holmes what he deserves? After another gem on Monday, Holmes has over 30 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games, posting a 40-point average in those 11 outings. That makes it hard to believe he’s barely cracking $7K, especially with the Hawks ranked 20th in defensive efficiency.

Devonte’ Graham (CHA) $5,300:

Now that Ball is out of the picture for the foreseeable picture, Graham should be back to starting duties. In that role last season, he broke out with over 30 DraftKings points per game. That’s all you can hope for from someone this cheap, especially with the Rockets surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.

DeAndre Jordan (BKN) $5,000:

DJ is always a risky pick, and while this matchup might look tough, it’s actually good for the big man. We say that because his size is needed against Rudy Gobert. That forces extra minutes out of Jordan, which is huge for a guy that averages exactly a fantasy-point-per-minute for the year. We also like Nicolas Claxton in the same matchup, and it’s possible both of these guys will pick up double-doubles.

Tomas Satoransky (CHI) $4,600:

This is another mistake by DraftKings. It seems like they don’t know that Sato is the starting point guard in Chicago, but we’re going to take advantage of it. He’s actually scored at least 27 DK points in four of his six starts this year which is no surprise when you see his 25-point average as a starter last year. That’s an amazing total from a sub-$5K player, and we’re certainly not worried about a 21st-ranked Cleveland slowing him down defense either.

Brook Lopez (MIL) $4,900:

Lopez has been in my articles a ton recently, and recent results are really encouraging. The big man has scored at least 21 fantasy points in six of his last seven games, averaging 29.3 DK points per game in that span. That’s a monster number from a $5K player, and he could be even better if Giannis Antetokounmpo sits again. Boston’s one weakness is at center, too, and Bro-Lo should exploit that.

Donovan Mitchell (UTH) $8,800:

This dude is on a heater right now. He’s actually scored at least 50 fantasy points in five of his last seven games, reaching that total in each of his last three fixtures. What we really like here is the matchup, though, with Brooklyn ranked 25th in total defense. Look for DM to be hungry against this superstar team!

Josh Richardson (DAL) $5,300:

Richardson was terrible in the first month of the season, but he’s completely turned it around recently. Over his last six games played, J-Rich has an average north of 30 DK points, playing nearly 35 minutes a night. That stretch extends even longer than that, and it’s hard to believe he’s barely cracking $5K. This matchup might be the best part of this, though, with Minnesota sitting 27th in defensive rating.

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,700: Jokic is now the favorite for MVP honors and it’s far less surprising when you see that he’s leading the NBA with over 60 DraftKings points per game. He’s actually been even better recently, scoring at least 63 fantasy points in eight of his last 11 games. That’s bad news for a Toronto team that owns the worst losing streak in the NBA.
  • Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $9,000: It’s a weird thing to say about a robot who never shows emotions, but Kawhi always plays more motivated when he faces his former team. In fact, he’s played the Spurs seven times, averaging 25.9 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 2.4 steals per game. That’s all you can hope for, especially with Leonard posting a 46-point average for the season.
  • Trae Young (ATL) $8,700: Sacramento has the worst defensive rating in the NBA and is currently surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. That’s terrifying news against a stud like Trae, with Young averaging 44 DK points per game across his last 16 outings.
  • John Wall (HOU) $7,600:  This Rockets team is beyond bad but Wall is doing all he can to pull them out of the dumps. He actually picked up a triple-double on Monday and has at least 33 DraftKings points in 18 of his last 20 games. Wall is providing a 37-point average in that span too which shouldn’t be hard to duplicate against a 23rd-ranked Hornets defense.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Jerami Grant (DET) $7,400: Grant was an elite fantasy producer early on in the season but his lack of stat-stuffing is really hurting him right now. Over his last five games played, JG is averaging just 2.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 0.6 steals per game, limiting him to a 29-point average in that span. That’s simply not good enough for such an expensive player.
  • Kemba Walker (BOS) $6,500: Now that Marcus Smart is back, there are too many mouths to feed in Boston. That’s evident when you see that Walker has 30 or fewer fantasy points in six-straight games, seeing his usage drop drastically in that span. That really concerns us against a stingy Milwaukee defense.
  • Al Horford (OKC) $6,100: I love Horford at this price but who knows when this guy will actually play. Oklahoma City is in full-on rebuild mode, sitting Big Al in eight of their last 16 games. The trade deadline is right around the corner too and we have to believe he’ll get another DNP here.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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