DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (3/3)
This is my final article before the break! It’s been a heck of a first-half, and it’s amazing just how quickly it flew by. The good news is that it’s behind us and that hopefully means a lot of the COVID craziness is behind us too. That’s been the most impactful aspect of DFS so far, and it’s caused mayhem on about half of the slates out there. I look forward to giving you guys more advice in the second half, so look for me to return next week right after the break!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
Most Value Per Dollar
This could be a fun slate when we look at the spreads. All of the teams you’d expect to be big favorites happen to be on the road, keeping every spread within 10 points. That should keep many of the starters in there for extended periods, especially when you consider that this is a lot of teams’ final games before the break.
If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Robert Covington (POR) $6,000:
Covington has been all over the place in terms of fantasy production, but 48 DraftKings points on Monday shows just how special he can be. What we love here is that he faces a Golden State team that prefers to play small-ball. That’s going to force RoCo into more center minutes, which is exactly what he did on Monday. We also don’t mind that Golden State surrenders the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards, either.
Al Horford (OKC) $6,300:
Horford has remained a good value on DraftKings for most of the season, and it’s hard to understand why they keep him so cheap. He’s scored at least 29 DK points in 11 of his 14 games since coming off maternity leave, averaging 36 fantasy points per game in that span. That alone makes him a good value, but we also love the matchup against a 25th-ranked Dallas defense.
Coby White (CHI) $6,500:
White has seen his fair share of sophomore struggles, but he’s been outstanding recently. He’s scored at least 30 fantasy points in five-straight fixtures, averaging 33 DK points per game in 33 minutes a night in that span. That’s a stupendous total from a sub-$7K player, and he should have no problem duplicating that against a New Orleans team that surrenders the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Myles Turner (IND) $6,000:
Turner is another center who’s been way too cheap all season long. The big man is averaging 34.4 DK points per game, which is north of 5X value at this price tag. We love him today because of the matchup, though, with Cleveland ranked 28th in defensive efficiency since the beginning of February. In his one meeting with the Cavs earlier this season, Turner dropped 36 fantasy points.
John Wall (HOU) $8,300:
The Rockets might be the worst team in the NBA right now, but it’s no fault of Wall’s. This guy has left it on the floor every night, scoring at least 29 fantasy points in 15 of his last 16 games. He’s also flirting with a 40-point average in those 15 outings, returning to his All-Star form. They need him to do it for this weak roster, too, and he should be hungry against a weak defensive backcourt that consists of James Harden and Kyrie Irving.
Rudy Gobert (UTH) $7,500:
Gobert might be in this article every time I write until he gets the $8K price tag he’s earned. He’s scored at least 29 fantasy points in 32 of his 35 games this season en route to a 40-point average. That put him in this section on Monday, providing us with another 47-point gem. Philly is definitely a tough matchup, but facing off with Joel Embiid will likely guarantee Rudy 40 minutes of play.
Dennis Schroder (LAL) $5,900:
Schroder is another fixture in this section, and he’s going to remain in it until Anthony Davis returns. Dennis the Menace has at least 25 fantasy points in the last six games AD has missed, averaging nearly 35 DK points per game in that stretch. That makes him way too cheap around $6K and facing this 30th-ranked Kings defense only adds to his intrigue.
P.J. Washington (CHA) $6,700:
Washington has shown his volatility in the last three games, combining for 109 fantasy points in his two previous games before a 10-point dud on Monday. The fact that he had such a ridiculous two-game stretch tells us that he’s a good value in this price range, and we definitely want to exploit it in a tasty matchup like this. Minnesota currently ranks 28th in points allowed and has one of the weakest power forward rotations in the NBA.
Eric Bledsoe (NOR) $5,300:
Bledsoe has been a $7,000 player throughout most of his career, and while he likely won’t get back there this year, we can expect him to get closer to $6K at least! He’s been playing at that level recently, scoring at least 29 DK points in three-straight outings. The stat-stuffing is the most important aspect of that recent resurgence, and he should have no problem continuing that success against a Chicago team that sits sixth in pace and 24th in points allowed.
Kyle Lowry (TOR) $8,100:
With the Detroit-Toronto game being pushed back, we’re going right back to the well for all the same reasons. Now that Pascal Siakam is out through the break, this is Lowry’s offense. That’s really evident when you see the way he’s stuffing the stat sheet right now, averaging 22 points, 9.0 rebounds, 9.0 assists, and 1.5 steals since his return from injury. We happen to love the matchup with Detroit, too, with the Pistons ranked 19th in total defense. We also don’t mind that Toronto will be without OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet as well.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- James Harden (BKN) $11,000: Revenge game narratives can be silly at times but if you don’t think Harden is going to go nuts in his first game back in Houston, then you should get your brain examined. The Beard is coming off of an 80-point gem on Monday and should abuse his former team, who enter this matchup in the midst of a 12-game losing streak. The only risk here is a blowout but Harden could still record a triple-double in just three quarters.
- Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,900: Luka has scored at least 50 fantasy points in six of his last eight games, getting his season average close to 60 DK points a night. That’s bad news for a 17th-ranked Thunder defense, especially with Luka scoring at least 54 fantasy points in both of his games against them last season.
- Damian Lillard (POR) $10,600: Lillard has been crushing with Jusuf Nurkic and C.J. McCollum both out, scoring at least 49 DK points in 18 of his last 20 games. If you know anything about Dame, you know that he’s always hungry against his hometown Warriors too. In 29 career games against them, Lillard has a superb 124 offensive rating, buoyed by 29.2 points and six assists per game.
- I hate to recommend the three most expensive players, but all these guys are in such great spots, and they might play a little extra with this being their final game before the All-Star break.
Notable Players to Fade
- Victor Oladipo (IND) $7,900: Oladipo just turned down a contract extension with the Rockets and he simply doesn’t look engaged right now. Amazingly, he hasn’t shot over 50 percent in 13-straight games, shooting just 37 percent from the field in that span. There’s also serious blowout potential and if this game even gets slightly out of hand, Victor is not stepping on the court in the fourth quarter.
- Buddy Hield (SAC) $6,400: Hield just had one of the best games of his career on Monday but he’s the type of guy that goes off in great matchup and falls apart in bad ones. This is certainly one of those bad ones, with Los Angeles owning the best defensive rating in the league. Buddy was really struggling before that gem too, failing to crack 34 fantasy points in his previous nine games, averaging just 23 DK points per game in that span.
- Joe Ingles (UTH) $5,600: We’ve gone over this constantly and it seems to come to fruition on every slate. When Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell are in the lineup, Ingles is averaging just 20 DK points per game in a bench role.
- Seth Curry (PHI) $5,200: This is the anti-Stephen Curry right now, with Seth scoring 17 or fewer fantasy points in five of his last eight games. He’s shooting just 28 percent in those five outings and we simply can’t trust him against a top-notch Utah defense.
Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.