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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (3/31)

DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (3/31)

Tuesday’s slate was a frustrating one with only four games on the docket but this Wednesday slate should be nuts. We have 10 games in total, making this player pool massive. We’ve also had some interesting things happen to these rotations since the trade deadline and we’re going to capitalize on some of those moves here!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Most Value Per Dollar 

This always tends to be the case but we absolutely love the center position today. If we could play five of them in our lineup, we would, but we’ll just settle for the two we’re allowed. There’s also a ton of great options at the point guard position and it’ll be critical to hit on those two slots on this monster slate. In terms of betting, Brooklyn is the only double-digit favorite on the board, making it a much more interesting slate.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Robert Williams (BOS) $6,700
This guy is going to remain in these articles until he gets the $8K price tag he deserves. Now that Daniel Theis is in Chicago and Tristan Thompson is sidelined, Rob-Will is finally getting the minutes he deserves. He’s now played at least 26 minutes in four of his last five games, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in each of those. That’s no surprise when you see that he’s averaging 1.4 DK points per minute for the season and he should just continue to get better as his role increases.

Robert Covington (POR) $6,000
Roco is one of my favorite players in the league and I’m sick of DraftKings disrespecting him with this price tag. He’s scored at least 44 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, posting a 34-point average across his last 14 fixtures. We’re certainly not concerned about him facing a Pistons team that surrenders the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards either.

Moses Brown (OKC) $7,100
With Al Horford out for the rest of the season, Brown should continue to start at center. That’s allowed Moses to score at least 25 fantasy points in five-straight games, averaging 38 DK points per game in that span. That’s scary from a growing youngster and we certainly don’t expect Toronto to slow him down with the center position being their weak spot on the roster.

Isaiah Roby (OKC) $5,400
All the talk in OKC is around Brown but don’t forget about Roby. This guy has found a nice role with Horford and Darius Bazley out, averaging 27 DK points per game across 30 minutes a night over his last eight outings. That’s all you can ask for from someone in this price range, especially with Toronto surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.

DeMar DeRozan (SAS) $7,600
The Kings have the worst defense in the NBA based on defensive efficiency ratings, so, we have to love DeRozan against them. He’s leading the Spurs with nearly 40 DK points per game, and his role should continue to rise with LaMarcus Aldridge out of the picture.

Deandre Ayton (PHO) $6,600
Ayton has been a hard guy to trust but it appears that he’s starting to turn things around. In fact, DA has scored at least 33 fantasy points in six-straight fixtures, averaging 38 fantasy points per game in that span. We love that form in a matchup like this, with Chicago surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Saben Lee (DET) $4,300
The point guard position in Detroit has been a carousel all year but now that Derrick Rose and Delon Wright have been traded, it looks like we’re down to Lee and Dennis Smith Jr. The good news is that DSJ is sidelined too, leaving Saben to feast. In the last two starts without those guys, Lee has 59.1 combined fantasy points across 50 combined minutes. That’s terrifying news for a Portland team that allows the most fantasy points to opposing point guards, no thanks to Damian Lillard‘s bad defense.

Nerlens Noel (NYK) $4,900
Noel was great when filling-in for Mitchell Robinson last month and now that Mitch-Rob broke his foot, Noel should resume starting duties. He’s done just that in the last two games, playing at least 30 minutes in both while scoring 32 fantasy points in back-to-back games. Look for that to continue against a 25th-ranked T’Wolves defense.

Kyle Kuzma (LAL) $7,300
Someone needs to step up in Los Angeles with Anthony Davis and LeBron James out. It appears Kuzma is the guy, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in four of his last five games which happen to match his average over his last 11 games played. More importantly, he’s taking 15 shots a night in that span while playing nearly 34 minutes per outing.

Josh Richardson (DAL) $4,900
We’ve been talking about how J-Rich needs a price bump and that still remains. He’s averaging 27 DK points per game across 33 minutes a night over his last 12 games played. Just take the 5-6X production and walk away. Boston is not as scary of a matchup as you may think either, with the Celtics ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day partner-arrow

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • James Harden (BKN) $10,900: Harden is gaining some momentum as the potential MVP and it’s hard to argue when you look at his numbers. The Beard is averaging nearly 60 DK points per game across his last 21 outings, doing even more with Kevin Durant sidelined. Facing his former Rockets team in a revenge game is simply a bonus, with Harden dropping 73 DraftKings points on them in their one meeting about a month ago.
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $10,500: Giannis probably deserves some MVP consideration as well, averaging 59 DK points per game across his last 20 outings. What makes that even crazier is that he’s been doing that damage in a lot of blowouts and he should be able to do that again versus a Lakers defense missing its two best players. In his two games against Los Angeles last year, Giannis averaging 62 fantasy points per game.
  • De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $9,300: Fox is quite possibly the best point guard in the NBA over the last few weeks, scoring at least 28 raw points in nine of his last 10 games. His recent form is even more absurd, scoring at least 44 DK points in five-straight games while generating a 53-point average in that span.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Caris LeVert (IND) $7,000: LeVert has flashed some moments of brilliance since his return but they’re just flashes. He’s actually scored 24 or fewer fantasy points in five of his nine games since returning and it’s clear that his role isn’t the same with the Pacers.
  • Malik Beasley (MIN) $6,400: If you stopped playing basketball at the top level for over a month, don’t you think your shot would be off? That’s certainly been the case for Beasley, combining to shoot 7-of-29 from the field in his first two games back from a 12-game suspension. Shooting is the hardest thing to find when returning from a long absence and that’s really concerning for a guy who gets all of his value through scoring.
  • Dillon Brooks (MEM) $5,500: This is another guy who only gets value through scoring and that’s terrifying with how little else this player does. Over his last 12 games played, Brooks is averaging less than 15 fantasy points per game in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks combined, making him impossible to trust against a Top-3 Utah defense.
  • Chris Boucher (TOR) $5,000: Boucher is in a huge slump right now, He’s scored 20 or fewer fantasy points in five of his last six games and is playing just 17.3 minutes per game in that span. That minute total is the scariest thing and we simply can’t trust him until that creeps back up.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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