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Early 2021 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team Standard

It’s March, and while everyone is filling out their brackets, the grind never stops for fantasy football, so I am mock drafting using the FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator.

I put down my thoughts after each pick in real-time, so this draft took me a couple of hours to get through. The software itself is really slick and speaks for itself, but the tools I had at my disposal for expert rankings, news and notes, as well as statistics, were easy to use and helpful to have.

A few quick thoughts before diving into the recap:

The first nine picks of this draft were running backs which allowed Tyreek Hill to fall into my lap at the 1.10. I believe the consensus moving forward in redraft will be to go heavy running back early and capitalize on the receiver depth as the draft unfolds. It makes sense from a game theory perspective to zig when others zag in that regard. Don’t hesitate to start out WR-WR if you are picking late in the 1st Round.

Stacking a QB and a WR makes a lot of sense if the price is right. I was able to get my favorite stack with Dak PrescottAmari Cooper in the middle rounds, which is a week-winning combination. Some other cheaper stacks you can look at would be Ryan TannehillA.J. Brown or Matt StaffordCooper Kupp/Robert Woods. I wouldn’t actively be looking to pair Davante Adams with Aaron Rodgers or Hill with Patrick Mahomes unless you get the quarterbacks at a massive discount (you probably won’t).

Tight End is a tough position to place the right value on. I was hoping Kyle Pitts would fall, but he went in the 7th Round, which might be a discount by the time we get to August. Taking someone like Noah Fant or T.J. Hockenson in the 6th is too rich for my blood, and if I had to take back one pick in this draft, it would be Dallas Goedert in the 8th. I think punting the position makes the most sense at this stage in the game.

For this mock, I used the following format:

  • Standard Scoring
  • 12 Teams (I picked out of the 10th spot)
  • 1QB, 2 RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, Defense, Kicker

Let’s dive into my pick-by-pick analysis.

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1.10 – Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
Seeing Hill falling to the 10th pick in a standard scoring draft is like seeing dollar bills fall from the sky when it’s raining. It’s easy money. The Chiefs passing offense will continue to funnel through Hill and Travis Kelce, so with the potential for 130+ targets and double-digit touchdowns, this was an easy pick to make. Davante Adams was here as well, but I will take the Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs’ offense in a slight lean over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

Others Considered: Davante Adams (WR – GB), Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)

2.03 – Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
I feel as good about the Rams offense as any in the NFC, especially Akers, who should get fed like Todd Gurley in 2017 and 2018. A three-down feature back who had an RB1 workload in each of his last six games, Akers is almost certainly undervalued at this 2nd Round ADP. Pairing him with Hill gives me a ceiling few combinations can match to go with enough of a floor to chase upside later on.

Others Considered: Miles Sanders (RB – PHI), Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)

3.10 – Julio Jones (WR – ATL)
Getting Jones in the late third to pair with Hill feels like stealing. Yes, he just turned 32. Yes, he was injured most of last year. No, I don’t think either of those two things means much for 2021. Jones should be a target hog, and as of today, Matt Ryan is still the Falcons’ quarterback, so the rapport is there. With hardly any running game to speak of and a defense that can’t slow anyone down, Atlanta should have to throw quite a bit next year.

Others Considered: Darren Waller (TE – LV)

4.03 – Travis Etienne (RB – FA)
I really considered Terry McLaurin here, but the depth at receiver pushed me towards Etienne. Mocking in March means we don’t know what the rookie landing spots will be, but there are plenty of reasons to be bullish on the Clemson product. He caught 102 passes in college, and after weighing in 215 pounds and running a 4.4 40-yard dash at Clemson’s pro day, he has the looks of one of the best skill position players in the draft. If he does land in the right offense, we could be talking about the Offensive Rookie of the Year in the 4th Round. I’ll take that.

Others Considered: Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

5.10 – Amari Cooper (WR – DAL)
As I said, receiver is deep, and I had my choice here of Cooper, Courtland Sutton, Brandon Aiyuk, and Dionte Johnson. I’ll take Cooper for his volume (130 targets) and the Cowboys offense getting back to the juggernaut it was the first five weeks of the season before Dak Prescott went down. Cooper lines up in my Flex but could end up as a back-end WR1.

Others Considered: Courtland Sutton (WR – DAL), Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)

6.03 – Dak Prescott (QB – Dallas)
This was a tough pick because the available running backs weren’t appealing, and the receiver I was hoping for (Courtland Sutton) went off the board two picks earlier. I would normally shy away from taking a quarterback this early, and Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson were both still on the board, but I love Prescott in 2021. This gives me a nice stack with Cooper, which I am actively trying to do more often in redraft leagues.

Others Considered: Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)

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7.10 – Chase Claypool (WR – PIT)
Like I said, wide receiver is deep. With Ben Roethlisberger back, Claypool has the chance to take a big leap in year two. In a standard league, I much prefer Claypool to Diontae Johnson as well.

Others Considered: Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)

8.03 – Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
I missed on Kyle Pitts, but Goedert feels like a nice bounce-back candidate with Zach Ertz looking like he will be on the way out. Looking back on this pick, it might have been a reach based on the fact the position has been such a wasteland outside of guys like Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and George Kittle. Still, if Goedert owns the position in Philadelphia, he could be a top-8 option at the position.

Others Considered: Brandin Cooks (HOU – WR), Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)

9.10 – Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
Jeudy got 113 targets last year and is one of the best route-runners in the league. The Broncos offense has the pieces in place to be explosive, and in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, they will need to score points in bunches. Drew Lock needs to get more consistent, but if he does, Jeudy could be a WR2.

Others Considered: Jarvis Landry (WR – CLE), Latavius Murray (RB – NO)

10.03 – Latavius Murray (RB – NO)
This was kind of a ‘meh’ pick, but running back is getting thin at this point. In the event of an Alvin Kamara injury, Murray becomes a top-12 option, and when considering the normal caveats (injury, workload), he is the perfect RB3. Murray has some standalone value either way, so it isn’t as if he won’t get 10-12 touches weekly.

Others Considered: Michael Pittman (WR – IND), Jeffrey Wilson (RB – SF)

11.10 – Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR – JAC)
My favorite pick so far, Shenault should be utilized all over the formation by Urban Meyer to build on a rock-solid rookie season. I can envision a scenario where he has over 1,000 total yards from scrimmage, which is easily within reach. Shenault should enjoy the upgrade with both the coaching staff and the quarterback position making him a nice late-round pick.

Others Considered: None

12.03 – J.D. McKissic (RB – WAS)
McKissic is more of a PPR specialist, but the Washington offense has a chance to be awfully fun next year, and he racked up over 900 yards from scrimmage in 2020. The other options left at running back are lottery tickets of the scratch-off variety, so I will take the volume and hope he gets some work inside the 20.

Others Considered: T.Y.Hilton (WR – FA), Sterling Shepherd (WR – NYG)

13.10 – Irv Smith Jr. (TE – MIN)
Given Goedert’s injury history, grabbing Smith Jr. makes sense, and he has a chance to be a breakout at the tight end position in 2021. If he makes any type of leap, he is immediately a top-10 option, and as the last member of the bench, it is something where I will likely churn the back end of my roster either way. Upside trumps all at this point.

Others Considered: Mark Ingram (RB – HOU)

14.03 – Bills Defense
I took the Bills over the Patriots and the Buccaneers because the Bills will play the Jets and Dolphins four times, and the turnover opportunities are juicy there.

Others Considered: Patriots D, Buccaneers D

15.10 – Harrison Butker (K – KC)
It never hurts to get a kicker on one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL. However, I would advocate not drafting defense or kicker on draft day. Instead, take some additional lottery tickets (handcuffs, receivers, etc.) that could pay off before Week 1.

Others Considered: None

The draft software hated my draft and gave me a D (64 out of 100), which I obviously disagree with given the roster’s balance and depth. In a 12-team league, having Chase Claypool and Jerry Jeudy coming off the bench is a nice luxury to have. My running back position is the most obvious weak spot, but it is also the position where it is easiest to find a replacement during the year.

I don’t have many regrets other than missing on Kyle Pitts and taking Goedert in the 8th. Of course, the draft is a small piece of a big puzzle, so churning my roster would be necessary during the year. Addressing the running back position would be a priority, but I would have a strong chance to get someone early in the waiver process, given my draft position.

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Whether you’re new to fantasy football or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Football 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with Starting Your Own Fantasy Football League or head to more advanced strategy – like What is the Right Amount of Risk to Absorb on Draft Day? – to learn more.

Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.

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