Last week our writers profiled eight early undervalued players for the 2021 fantasy football season. This week we’re doing the same exercise but focusing on those who managers might want to fade in summer drafts.
Ranking referenced is using 0.5 PPR FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR)
Check out all of our 2021 NFL Draft coverage 
Q. Which player do you think is most overvalued by the Expert Consensus?
D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA) ECR: 16
Metcalf is currently ranked as the No. 5 fantasy wide receiver, but there are a couple reasons why I think that ranking is too high. The first is that Metcalf was only a top-five fantasy wideout once last year, Week 8 at home against San Francisco. Conversely, he had six games where he ranked outside of the Top-30, which is too low of a floor for a player ranked in the top-five at his position. Second, as the season progressed, his production steadily decreased. In his first eight games, Metcalf averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game and was the second highest scoring fantasy receiver. From Week 10 through Week 14, his production dropped to 12.8 fantasy points per game and he was the 11th ranked wide receiver. From Week 15 to Week 17, he averaged just 6.4 fantasy points per game and he was the 56th ranked fantasy wide receiver. Third, Russell Wilson wants out of Seattle and the Seahawks seem to at least be open to the possibility of life without Russ, if they can find the right trade. Losing Wilson would torpedo Metcalf’s fantasy value. I think it all adds up to a lofty ranking for a very talented wide receiver, but a player who was also a WR3 in the second half of the 2020 season with some quarterback concerns headed into 2021. He feels like he is being ranked closer to his ceiling than his floor.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
Metcalf has quickly shown that he has the potential to become one of the elite wide receivers in the NFL. In his second season with the Seahawks in 2020, Metcalf exploded for 83 receptions, 1,303 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. The freakishly athletic wideout has become a favorable vertical weapon for Russell Wilson with a career aDOT of 13.4 yards in his first two years in the NFL. Despite his impressive numbers thus far in his career, his current spot as WR5 in the ECR — and 16th overall — seems to be a bit too high. Just this past season, Metcalf finished as WR7 in half-PPR leagues as he made a concerted effort to build a strong rapport with Wilson. Even though Metcalf should continue to produce fantasy-worthy numbers, Pete Carroll seems committed to running the ball more in 2021, which limits the ceiling of Metcalf. Given the run-first approach that the Seahawks could take — plus the uncertainty surrounding Wilson’s future — it’s hard to envision Metcalf finishing as the WR5 or better next season.
– Skyler Carlin (@skyler_carlin)
Patrick Mahomes II (QB – KC) ECR: 22
The obvious answer in a 1QB league is any quarterback who is ranked in the top-50 but Mahomes sticks out for a couple reasons beyond that. He was a monster in 2018 and statistically he has been a top-3 quarterback in each of his three seasons, but this is a price based evaluation. Picking Mahomes is hard to justify when you can get Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson roughly 50-60 picks later. Teams are going to look at film from the Super Bowl and use that as a blueprint to slow the Chiefs down, which makes him a risky investment from that perspective. Additionally, due to the salary cap, his offensive line will be in tatters next year which could leave him running for his life more often than not. While he is one of the best improvisers in the game, if you are paying a second round price tag, you are looking for numbers that are far and away better than the alternatives at the position.
– Jason Kamlowsky (@JasonKamlowsky)
In 1QB leagues, the most overvalued player by the ECR has to be the number one ranked QB: Patrick Mahomes II. This isn’t to say that he isn’t the top or the most valuable player in the NFL (which he is), but rather to the abundant number of startable options at QB for fantasy. For example: why would I take Mahomes as the 22nd player overall (early-third round or late-second ADP in 10- and 12-team leagues, respectively) over a D’Andre Swift or George Kittle – both of whom are ranked below Mahomes currently – when I could just get Kyler Murray as the 53rd player overall in the early-sixth or mid-fifth in 10- and 12-team leagues? Or wait even longer and take rising fantasy stars Justin Herbert or Jalen Hurts, who are going as the QB9 (81st player overall) and QB15 (113th player overall)? I don’t confidently expect any of these three players to outscore Mahomes in 2021, but you’re almost certain to lose value in 1QB leagues when you draft a QB that high. Even the supreme fantasy cheat code, Lamar Jackson, turned out to be a disastrous pick for managers that took him at his late-second-to-early-third round ADP last season. Pass on the big name at QB and take the value at one of the more premier fantasy positions. You’ll either get a high-upside RB (e.g., Swift or J.K. Dobbins), an alpha WR (e.g., Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson II, or Justin Jefferson), or an elite TE (e.g., Kittle or Darren Waller) at that point in the draft. All of these options are preferable to Mahomes at that ADP.
– Jared Lese (@JaredL_FF)
Josh Allen (QB – BUF) ECR: 42
In 1QB leagues, taking Bills QB Josh Allen as the second QB off the board in the fourth round of your draft could end up backfiring horribly. Sure, he had a terrific 2020, but the odds of repeating that are very rare (see Lamar Jackson). He’s ranked right ahead of stud WR options like DJ Moore, Amari Cooper, and Adam Thielen, all of whom still have WR1 upside. Passing on that kind of ceiling production for a QB at his peak value leaves very little chance for success and makes failure much more likely. Everyone knows to wait on QB nowadays, I just recommend waiting longer than the fourth round. That way you can add plenty of potential value at WR and RB where you need more starters before grabbing someone around QB10 in the eighth round or later. If you think Allen could surpass Mahomes as the top QB then the fourth round might make sense, but I haven’t heard anyone making that bold claim lately. To me this makes him highly overvalued at QB2 overall.
– Andrew Hall (@AndrewHallFF)
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) ECR: 20
We know that RBs are king in fantasy football, so it’s always tough to poke holes in any strategy that involves loading up on the position early in drafts. Still, we don’t want to be drafting players “just because” they’re running backs. Historically, RBs taken between Rounds 4-6 are a death sentence for fantasy managers with the idea being that these are players expected to see volume at the scarcest position. This is how you fall into a trap and wind up with Leonard Fournette and Todd Gurley on your team in 2020. Jacobs is unlikely to suffer the same fate as those guys. For one, he’s just a better player at this point his career but he also isn’t being taken in that death zone of drafts. He’s being taken much earlier, though, which is concerning for an RB who doesn’t see work in the passing game. I’m not comfortable taking an RB who has only seen 2.57 targets per game over his first two seasons. The Raiders aren’t projected to be much better in 2021 and this is a player who will rely on game script. Jacobs has the profile of a third-round pick but is being drafted within the top-20 right now.
– Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you’re new to fantasy football or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Football 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with Starting Your Own Fantasy Football League or head to more advanced strategy – like What is the Right Amount of Risk to Absorb on Draft Day? – to learn more.
