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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Saturday (3/27)

FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Saturday (3/27)

The weekend is officially here, and Saturday presents a 9-game slate with lots of firepower on deck. Nearly half of the teams play on the second leg of a back-to-back set, so prominent players could be given the night off to rest and open up some value to be taken advantage of. As always, let’s dive right into my favorite values, studs, and fades for the evening’s DFS festivities.

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Most Value Per Dollar 

At first glance, injuries will be something to monitor when setting lineups, as both Zach LaVine and Bradley Beal are considered questionable to play. If they are ultimately ruled out, that will open up enormous value for guys like Russell Westbrook ($11,000) and Nikola Vucevic ($9,700). It will be vital to pay attention to each of their statuses throughout the day on Saturday.

Vegas currently has every game with an over-under below 230, but there a few matchups worth attacking in this slate. For example, both the CLE/SAC and DAL/NOP matchups have all four teams currently ranked bottom-10 in defensive efficiency this season. The lack of defense in these specific games should open the door for plenty of fantasy production.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Darius Garland (PG – CLE) $6,500
Garland’s value solely rides on Collin Sexton’s status as he missed Friday’s game with a hamstring injury. The Kings have been middle of the pack when it comes to slowing down opposing point guards, but both teams rank bottom-10 in defensive efficiency, so there should be tons of points on the board in this one. In 363 minutes without Sexton on the floor this season, Garland has seen nearly a 27 percent usage rate.

Harrison Barnes (PF – SAC) $5,900
Barnes is coming off a lackluster showing on Thursday but is in a terrific spot to bounce-back against the Cavaliers, who surrender the 7th most FanDuel points to opposing power forwards this season.

Rui Hachimura (SF – WAS) $5,700
Hachimura has topped at least 30 FanDuel points in five of his last seven games and should be in for a bigger role if Bradley Beal ends up sitting due to foot soreness. The Pistons have been average against opposing small forwards this season, but this game currently boasts the highest over-under on the slate at 229.5.

Robert Williams (C – BOS) $5,600
In a head-scratching move, Williams has seen his price tag drop $400 after being priced at $6,000 on Friday. All he did in Friday’s win over the Bucks was produce seven points, nine rebounds, six assists, five blocks, and two steals en route to 47.8 FanDuel points. Boston’s new starting center should be a fixture in DFS against the Thunder and is easily one of the best values on the slate.

Marcus Smart (SG – BOS) $5,500
Smart has been terrific since returning from injury earlier this month and should see a boost in usage with Kemba Walker likely ruled out due to Boston playing on the second night of a back-to-back set. He’s averaged 30.2 FanDuel points over his last six games and gets a cakewalk matchup against an ailing Thunder backcourt.

Jae’Sean Tate (PF – HOU) $5,400
Tate has averaged over 30 minutes per game for the Rockets in March and gets a Timberwolves team who gives up the fourth-most FanDuel points to opposing power forwards this season. He sees a boost in value with Danuel House Jr. missing time due to personal reasons.

Moses Brown (C – OKC) $5,400
Veteran Al Horford is resting more often this season, and if he sits out on Saturday, Brown could feast. He’s averaging 1.19 FanDuel points per minute during his time without Horford on the floor.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker (SG – NOP) $5,300
Alexander-Walker has been stellar while filling in for the injured Lonzo Ball over the last couple of games. He’s scored 30 or more FanDuel points in three of his last five games and should see 30+ minutes against the Mavericks with Ball ruled out in advance.

Saddiq Bey (SF – DET) $5,200
Bey has produced nicely for Detroit in March and is seeing heavy minutes as a result. Over his last four games, the rookie has averaged 16.7 points on more than three treys per game and gets a Wizards squad surrendering the fifth-most FanDuel points to opposing small forwards this season.

Jalen Brunson (PG – DAL) $4,800
This one is solely based on Luka Doncic’s status as a back issue forced him to miss Friday’s loss to the Pacers. You should all know the drill by now. Brunson is a fixture in DFS anytime Luka sits, and that won’t change in Saturday’s game against the Pelicans. He’s seeing a 24 percent usage rate and averaging 1.0 FanDuel point per minute during his time without Doncic on the floor.

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Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Russell Westbrook (PG – WAS) $11,000: Westbrook has a hefty price tag in this one, but I’m willing to overlook that if Bradley Beal ends up sitting due to ongoing foot soreness. He’s averaged nearly 60 FanDuel points over his last seven games, and the Pistons don’t have anyone on their roster capable of containing him. Fire Westbrook up as a surefire stud, and don’t think twice.
  • De’Aaron Fox (PG – SAC) $9,400: Fox is averaging 37 points on 64.7 percent shooting for the week and is gifted another sensational matchup against the Cavaliers. Fresh off a career-high 44-point performance on Thursday, Fox could go bonkers once more against a Cleveland squad surrendering the fifth-most FanDuel points to point guards this season. The only point guard on this slate that I would prefer above Fox is Russell Westbrook (see above).

Notable Players to Fade

  • Khris Middleton (SF – MIL) $7,700: Middleton and the Bucks will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back against a slow-paced Knicks squad who are allowing the third-fewest FanDuel points to opposing small forwards this season. On top of that, Middleton was shaken up during Friday’s loss to the Celtics, so receiving the night off is not entirely out of the question. I’d much rather pivot to guys like Brandon Ingram ($8,300) or Jaylen Brown ($8,000).
  • Anthony Edwards (SG – MIN) $7,600: While the matchup is decent, Edwards is coming off of a brutal shooting night, and Malik Beasley’s return from suspension will surely put a damper on his fantasy ceiling. With Edwards set to lose a few shots to Beasley, he’ll need to be uber-efficient to support his hefty price tag. I’d rather take my chances with Marcus Smart ($5,500) or any of the studs priced higher.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Alex Burns a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive and follow him @aburnshoops.

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