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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Sunday (3/14)

FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Sunday (3/14)

I was so close to taking down the single-entry series contest on Friday, and I’m in the midst of a heater right now. I’m actually 11th in the standings for this week, so one more big day could lead to huge cash for yours truly! That’s always a great feeling in DFS, and I’m ready for a monster second half. All of that is good news for you guys because I’m looking forward to spreading some of the wealth. There’s a ton of value on this slate, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Most Value Per Dollar 

What’s interesting for this slate is that we have a lot of road favorites. Boston, Portland, Miami, and Los Angeles are all favored on the road. That’s four of the six games, with Atlanta and Chicago listed as the only home favorites. That should lead to a relatively closer slate in terms of spreads, and we also have a ton of bad defenses on display, too, which should tend to some higher totals.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Kenyon Martin Jr (HOU) $3,500
To say the Rockets are dismantled would be an understatement. They’re currently without Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, and P.J. Tucker, leaving Martin to feast in the frontcourt. In the two games since the break, KJ is averaging 14 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 2.0 blocks per game. More importantly, he’s playing over 30 minutes a night while attempting 12 shots a game. All of those factors make him hard to fade at a minimum price.

Ricky Rubio (MIN) $4,800
Rubio has remained below $5K on FanDuel for way too long. He’s scored at least 21 FanDuel points in 15 of his last 17 games while averaging 27 fantasy points per game in that span. That makes this price tag mind-boggling, especially with Minnesota missing Jordan McLaughlin, Malik Beasley, and D’Angelo Russell. We love the matchup against a 28th-ranked Portland defense, too.

Kyle Lowry (TOR) $8,400
Lowry has been in these articles a ton recently, and rightfully so. Toronto is currently without Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Fred VanVleet, leaving Lowry to feast. That’s allowed him to score at least 33 FD points in nine-straight games, averaging 41 fantasy points per game in that span. That shouldn’t be hard to duplicate against a Chicago team that ranks fifth in pace and 25th in points allowed.

Enes Kanter (POR) $6,800
Kanter has been incredible since taking over starting center duties for Jusuf Nurkic. He’s scored at least 27 FD points in 20 of his 24 starts for Nurkic, averaging over 34 FanDuel points per game in that span. That’s a terrifying sign for the T’Wolves, as Minnesota surrenders the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Kevin Porter Jr (HOU) $6,000
It’s hard to fade Porter right now. With all of the absences we mentioned in Houston, they’re really throwing him out there to run the show. In his two starts since the break, Porter has scored at least 42 FD points in both, averaging 45 fantasy points per game. That’s crazy production from someone in this price range, and he should continue to see monster usage with Houston in full-on rebuild mode.

Goran Dragic (MIA) $5,300
While Dragic struggled in his first game back, he’s been stellar since then. In fact, The Dragon is averaging 28.3 FD points per game across 30 minutes a night over his last six outings. That’s really all you can ask for from a sub-$6K player, and he should continue to have a bigger role with Bam Adebayo expected to sit yet again. Dragic killed Orlando in their one meeting earlier this season, too, as he dropped 37 FD points in just 26 minutes.

Paul George (LAC) $7,800
While PG has been struggling a bit recently, this price is silly. George has played at a $9,000 level throughout most of his career and has shown that ability most of this season. In fact, he’s averaging 41 FanDuel points per game for the year, and he reached at least 39 fantasy points in 19 of his 28 games played. That should be an easy feat to reach again here, as he’ll face a Pelicans team that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency.

Larry Nance Jr (CLE) $5,400
I was concerned with Nance’s role coming off of injury, but playing 28 minutes in his return on Friday is an extremely encouraging sign. While he failed to crack 20 FD points, Nance averaged 31.4 FD points per game in his first 15 outings before getting injured. If you get that at this price, you’re off to a huge start. We don’t mind that Atlanta ranks 23rd in points allowed, too, which was on full display when Nance dropped 39 FanDuel points against them earlier this year.

Stanley Johnson (TOR) $3,500
We already mentioned all of the absences in Toronto, and it’s forced Johnson into one of the biggest roles of his career. He has started the last two games, scoring at least 24 FD points in both of them. That’s a huge total from a minimum-priced player, and one has to believe that if he can match the 37 minutes he played on Thursday, he should have another 24-point floor.

Chasson Randle (ORL) $4,000
While Randle hasn’t had many big games, his minutes are skyrocketing. He’s now played 67 combined minutes in the two games since the All-Star break, stepping up in the absences of Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross, and Evan Fournier. If he plays 30 minutes again here, Randle is hard to overlook at $4K.

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $10,300: Butler has been one of the NBA’s best players since he returned from injury. In fact, Butler is averaging 23 points, 8.0 rebounds, 8.9 assists, and 2.0 steals over the last month since his return. One of those games came against these Magic, in which Jimmy dropped a 63-spot on them just a few weeks back.
  • Damian Lillard (POR) $9,900: We already talked about how Portland is without McCollum and Nurkic, which thrusts Lillard into the MVP discussion. In fact, Dame has at least 45 FD points in 19 of his last 23 games, averaging 50 fantasy points per game in that span. We love that against this mediocre defense, especially with Lillard dropping 66 fantasy points on them earlier this season.
  • Trae Young (ATL) $9,000: Young has at least 49 FD points in back-to-back games, and he looks motivated since Lloyd Pierce’s firing. We love this matchup, too, as Cleveland owns one of the worst defensive ratings since February. That was crystal clear when Trae dropped 53 FD points on them in their last meeting, despite shooting 33 percent from the field. Imagine how that’d look if he had a good shooting night!

Notable Players to Fade

  • Jaylen Brown (BOS) $7,600: Brown was an All-Star with Boston missing players early on, but now that Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, and Kemba Walker are all fully healthy, Brown is not the same guy. He’s failed to reach 36 FD points in each of his last five games, which is simply not good enough from someone this expensive.
  • Lonzo Ball (NOR) $6,600: With Zion Williamson playing the de facto point guard in New Orleans, Ball’s role is falling off. He’s failed to crack 30 fantasy points in each of his last four games, averaging just 23 fantasy points per game in that span.
  • Kevin Love (CLE) $5,000: If you think Orlando is slow with Gordon, Cleveland is at a snail’s pace with Love. The former All-Star played just 10 minutes in his return to action on Friday, collecting a dreadful 5.4 FD points. We obviously can’t trust either of these guys until they’re playing a full complement of minutes.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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