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FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Tuesday (3/2)

by Zachary Hanshew | @ZaktheMonster | Featured Writer
Mar 2, 2021

We’re just days away from All Star Weekend, and there’s a great, six-game slate on tap in the NBA tonight. As always, we’ll name values, studs, and fades for the day’s DFS festivities. Let’s get right to it!

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Most Value Per Dollar 

Tonight’s slate is full of notable injuries to be aware of, so make sure to check final injury reports prior to tip-off. Two of the six games on the slate — Knicks/Spurs, Suns/Lakers — have over/unders less than 220 – not ideal, but not completely avoidable, either. The two games to really hammer home are Griz/Wiz (237) and Bucks/Nuggets (236). Both games have high implied point totals and offer up high-priced studs and values across the board. There are plenty of values on tonight’s slate, but the forward positions offer the most bang for your buck. The most scarce position is SG, but it’s not a homerun to pay up for one of the higher-priced studs. Spending down here and paying up at other positions can be a winning strategy while filling in the gaps with values in the mid-range salary tier.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. 

For a full list of over/unders and point spreads, visit BettingPros.

Khris Middleton (SF – MIL): $7,400 vs DEN
Middleton has averaged 37.7 FD points this season, but across his last four games, he’s erupted for totals of 63.6 and 46.4 FD points. He’s also averaged seven boards and six dimes to go with nearly 25 points per contest. Jrue Holiday returned for Milwaukee but played just 17 minutes Sunday. He should see his minutes ramp up in this one, but look for Middleton to have one more big game while Holiday makes his way back from an extended absence. 

Jonas Valanciunas (C – MEM): $7,000 at WAS
This game features one of the highest over/unders on the slate, which adds even more value to Memphis’ center, who should be able to take advantage of a very friendly matchup. JV is averaging 16/11 this season, and Washington’s frontcourt rotation remains a mess, and a sieve for points to opposing bigs. Valanciunas should be an anchor in lineups this evening. 

Michael Porter (SF – DEN): $6,300 at MIL
MPJ is finally providing consistent production after an up-and-down start to the season, and he comes into this one riding a four-game double-double streak. He’ll look to extend that streak this evening while Denver continues to deal with injuries in what projects to be a high-scoring game.

Derrick Rose (PG – NYK): $6,200 at SA
Across his last four games, D Rose is cooking, averaging 16 points, 7.5 dimes, and 2.0 combined blocks/steals. The Knicks are rolling and currently sit firmly in the playoff picture thanks in part to Rose’s strong play since joining the team. This is a pace-up spot for the Knicks and a favorable defensive matchup to boot. Fire up Rose as one of the night’s best values.

Kendrick Nunn (PG – MIA): $5,800 vs ATL
Even with Goran Dragic back in action, Nunn has kept producing. Across his last five, Nunn has scored better than 20 points and 44 FD points three times. Tonight’s matchup with Atlanta is about as friendly as it gets, and Nunn would get an even bigger boost in value if Jimmy Butler sits. 

Jakob Poeltl (C – SAS): $5,800 vs NYK
Poeltl has averaged 10 points, 10 boards, and 2.7 blocks since his insertion into the starting five, and despite the return of LaMarcus Aldridge, Poeltl has remained a fixture in San Antonio’s starting lineup. He gets a favorable matchup with the Knicks tonight, where he could easily outperform his modest $5.8K price tag. 

Bobby Portis (PF – MIL): $5,600 vs DEN
Bobby P is typically priced as a value on most slates, and tonight is no different. Milwaukee’s matchup with Denver boasts a 236 over/under, which means there will be plenty of opportunities for Portis to rack up fantasy points. Denver’s frontcourt rotation is thin aside from Nikola Jokic, and Portis should be able to take advantage and provide solid value at just $5.6K.

Kevin Huerter (SG – ATL): $5,300 at MIA
Huerter has logged heavy minutes on the wing for Atlanta as of late, making the most of his opportunities with injuries to Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter, and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Over his last four games, Huerter has scored at least 37 FD points twice and logged a game with four steals and one with six. I have no problem paying $5.3K for for a guy with 40-point upside. 

Davis Bertans (PF – WAS): $5,000 vs MEM
It’s been a roller-coaster ride for those rostering Bertans in season-long leagues and especially for those taking a shot on him in DFS lineups. Still, when he gets hot from downtown, he can return value in spades. On the year, Memphis ranks in the bottom-1o in both three-pointers allowed and three-point percentage allowed. Bertans is worth a look at just $5K.

Justise Winslow (SF – MEM): $4,400 at WAS
If you’re looking to spend way down for a guy who can return a ton of value, you can certainly justify rolling with Justice. In just his fourth game of the season, Winslow went for 29.6 FD points over 20 minutes Sunday against Houston. With Kyle Anderson a GTD tonight, Winslow could be looking at more minutes in a matchup with Washington that sports a 237 over/under. 

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Dejounte Murray (SAS) $8,800: With Derrick White still on the shelf, Murray should continue to handle plenty of work in the backcourt for San Antonio. He can do a bit of everything, and Murray’s 50-point ceiling makes him appealing even as his price inches upward.
  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $9,600: Westbrook has rebounded from his mid-season struggles and has gone for at least 50 FD points in four of his last six games. Tonight, he’ll face Memphis in what’s expected to be the highest-scoring game on the slate.
  • Paul George (LAC) $7,900: I’m out on Kawhi Leonard tonight at his current price, but I’m all in on taking some PG shares in GPPs tonight. He’s just $7.9K! That’s ludicrous for a player with his level of upside. He’s far from cash game consideration, but if you want some upside in tournaments, George is a great target.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $9,700: Leonard has averaged 44.6 FD points across his last six games, and while he’s got legitimate 60-point upside, his recent performance coupled with a tough matchup make him unappealing this evening, especially with quality values across the board.
  • Trae Young (ATL) $9,400: Young has disappointed in his last two games, and I’m not comfortable paying such a big price for him when there are other guys in this range I prefer, such as Dejounte Murray and Russell Westbrook. If you have to take a Hawk tonight, Kevin Huerter and John Collins are better options given their lower price tags.

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Zachary Hanshew is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.

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