And we’re back! After a restful All-Star Break, the NBA swings back into action with two games tonight. While we’ve got some bigger (and more interesting) slates following this one, tonight gives us DFS players a chance to get back on the grind without overwhelming us with research.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Wednesday’s FanDuel slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
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Most Value Per Dollar
Of tonight’s two games, WAS/MEM (237) has a significantly higher projected point total than SAS/DAL (223.5), per the BettingPros consensus odds. The Wizards and Grizzlies both play at above-average paces, with the Wizards ranking first, while the Spurs and Mavericks sit around the league average.
Because we’re coming off the All-Star Break, there isn’t much to report on the injury front. Luka Doncic has gotten healthier after he missed Dallas’ last game; likewise, Derrick White and Keldon Johnson should be full-go for San Antonio. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Grayson Allen will remain out for Memphis, and Ish Smith will also remain out for Washington.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
Russell Westbrook (WAS) $9,800
If you’re looking to buy a share of Washington’s stars, Westbrook gives you more bang for your buck tonight — he’s $700 cheaper than Beal. Westbrook has outscored Beal in their last two games, and he has hit 5x value against this price in all but two of his last eight outings. In contrast, Beal has hit 5x value in just half of those eight games. You should expect a lot of points in this one, and that makes Westbrook an excellent investment.
Kristaps Porzingis (DAL) $8,300
Porzingis posted 41.1 FD points against the Spurs back in late January, which is good for 5x value against this price. The matchup isn’t fantastic here, as San Antonio has done a good job of limiting opposing bigs. Still, Porzingis’ floor makes him worth the price — especially since power forward is relatively thin tonight.
Jonas Valanciunas (MEM) $7,000
Valanciunas is the best value at center tonight. He is only $500 more expensive than Jakob Poeltl, but he takes on the Wizards, who give up the second-most FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) to the position. Valanciunas has posted some disappointing results of late, but that’s led to a downtick in his salary, and I would buy the dip tonight. Also, who else are you going to use at center? After Poeltl, you’re down to Alex Len ($4,500) or Robin Lopez ($4,200). No thanks.
Dillon Brooks (MEM) $5,600
Yes, I’m aware that Brooks’ teammate, De’Anthony Melton, has been lighting people up recently. So is FanDuel. That’s why Melton will cost you $6,000 tonight. Brooks is a much better investment — not only is he cheaper, but he has also averaged more minutes over the last three games. More importantly, he has hit 5x in two of the three games Grayson Allen has missed with his concussion.
LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS) $5,500
I don’t love Aldridge tonight, but he did look excellent against the Mavericks when these teams last met. He posted 41.8 FD points, good for 7.6x value against this price. While the Spurs have moved away from him in recent weeks, Aldridge is quite affordable for someone we’ve already seen succeed against his opponent.
Jalen Brunson (DAL) $5,400
Brunson has hit 5x value against this price in his last two games. Sure, one of those came without Luka Doncic, but his best performance came with Doncic still in the lineup! Brunson also hit 5x value against the Spurs earlier in the year, too, so I have faith in him as a value option at point guard.
Justise Winslow (MEM) $4,800
Winslow deserves a bit more respect here. He may have only posted 17.3 FD points against the Wizards when these teams last met on Mar. 2, but he had hit 5x value against this price in the game prior. The Wizards give up the second-most FDPPG to small forwards, where Winslow spends most of his minutes, and he makes a strong boom-or-bust play at this salary.
Deni Avdija (WAS) $4,000
Avdija posted 17.9 FD points against the Wizards on Mar. 2, and he followed that up by posting 18.4 FD points against the Clippers two days later. That’s not jaw-dropping production, but it was good enough for him to average 4.5x value through the two-game stretch. While that’s a bit below what I usually look for on FanDuel, tonight’s small slate makes Avdija worth a dart throw.
Patty Mills (SAS) $4,000
Mills has only hit 5x value once over his last five outings, but he also hit at least 4.5x value in all but one of those games. That makes him a reliable floor play. Mills almost always scores between 18 and 20 FD points, so if you need a stopgap at guard in cash contests, he’s your guy.
Desmond Bane (MEM) $3,500
Bane sits at the site minimum on tonight’s slate. That usually wouldn’t be odd, but with so few alternatives, the fact that he hit 5x value in one of the three games without Grayson Allen has some significance. That 34.9-FD point performance against the Rockets points to enough value for me to consider him tonight.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Luka Doncic (DAL) $11,000: You can’t really fade Doncic on a slate this small. He exploded for 61.3 FD points against the Spurs earlier this year, too, good for 5.6x value, and you should expect similar production out of him tonight.
- Russell Westbrook (WAS) $9,800: I think Westbrook offers more value than Beal tonight. He outperformed him in their two most recent games, including a Mar. 2 battle with the Grizzlies, and he is the more affordable of the two.
- Ja Morant (MEM) $8,000: Morant hung 55 FD points against the Wizards on Mar. 2, and I expect him to have a similarly successful showing against their vulnerable defense tonight.
Notable Players to Fade
- Jakob Poeltl (SAS) $6,500: You’re picking between Valanciunas and Poeltl at center tonight, and the $500 savings just aren’t enough for me to side with Poeltl — especially with Valanciunas facing a defense as soft as Washington’s.
- De’Anthony Melton (MEM) $6,000: Melton has had some big games recently, but he didn’t crack 15 minutes in his last time on the court, so I refuse to buy high on him at this salary. You should just save $400 and use Dillon Brooks.
- Derrick White (SAS) $5,600: White will make his first start since he landed on the COVID-19 list, so I would give him a game to get back up to speed before using him as a DFS option.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
