The New York Knicks, who average the third-fewest points per game, led the NBA in scoring last night. They beat out two top-five offenses (Brooklyn and New Orleans) to do so. Their success should remind all NBA DFS players that matchups are key — while I was surprised to see them drop that many points against the Wizards (especially since they only scored 109 in their last meeting), Washington does give up the most points per game.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Wednesday’s FanDuel slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
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Most Value Per Dollar
Tonight’s 11-game main slate includes all the NBA action we have on tap for this evening, and it tips off at 7 p.m. EDT.
The slate features three games with betting totals at or above 230: ATL/SAC (235), DAL/MIN (231.5), BKN/UTH (230.5), and BOS/MIL (230). Those four games are ones to target because of their projected high scores, and you can find the most recent totals at BettingPros.
The totals point to games to avoid as well. Three matchups have totals below 220: PHO/ORL (213.5), CLE/CHI (216.5), and DET/IND (218.5). Don’t expect to see many players featured from those games, especially not high-salary assets.
On the injury front, DFS players must pay close attention to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s status for this evening, as he is currently listed as questionable. If he sits out, Jrue Holiday ($8,300) should hit 5x value against his salary. If he plays (which I suspect he will), it’s hard to trust Holiday with a salary that high. Elsewhere, the Clippers will remain without Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley. The Kings lost starting power forward Marvin Bagley for a few weeks, too, and the Hornets may have lost LaMelo Ball for the season.
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary, ranked in order of how much they’ll cost you.
De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $8,900
The Kings and Hawks should put up a ton of points tonight. While their last matchup saw only 227 points, Fox accounted for 32 of them (30% of Sacramento’s total). He dropped 49.4 FD points in the matchup (5.6x value against his current price) and should post similar numbers tonight. The Hawks give up the fifth-most FDPPG to point guards, too.
Trae Young (ATL) $8,700
Atlanta’s point guard should also pay off his lofty salary. He posted 28 points the last time these teams met (23.1% of Atlanta’s total) and finished with 41.7 FD points (4.8x value against his current price). Look for him to have another strong showing tonight, especially if the Kings can keep this game closer. Also, Sacramento surrenders the fourth-most FDPPG to point guards.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) $7,000
This price is egregious. SGA’s usage rate ranks 26th-best among all players with 100-plus minutes, and it sits above players like James Harden, Ja Morant, and Paul George. Yet he’ll cost you much less than it takes to get any of those players, and he’ll play in what should be a decently high-scoring game (222.5). SGA has played the Grizzlies twice this season, and he posted 33.6 FD points (4.8x value) in the first game 37.3 FD points (5.3x value) in the second.
Jerami Grant (DET) $7,000
I try to avoid players in low-scoring matchups, but the Pacers have seriously struggled against power forwards this year. They give up the fifth-most FDPPG to the position. With Myles Turner questionable tonight, Grant could have an even easier task ahead of him, too.
Harrison Barnes (SAC) $6,000
With Bagley out, Barnes should spend more of his time at power forward. The Hawks give up the 12th-most FDPPG to the position, which bodes well for Barnes, as does his recent workload. Since Bagley went down, Barnes has averaged 37.1 minutes per game. He has double-doubled twice. Look for him to easily pay off this low-end salary tonight.
Devonte’ Graham (CHA) $5,000
Ball’s injury has thrust Graham back into Charlotte’s starting lineup. He is a serious downgrade from Ball, of course, but the volume should be there for him to hit value against the Rockets. Houston surrenders the ninth-most FDPPG to point guards. Graham had been averaging 26.8 FDPPG (5.4x value) in the five games before the Feb. 5 injury that allowed Ball to take his starting job, and I suspect that he’ll start hitting that average again soon.
Ivica Zubac (LAC) $5,000
Zubac will remain a value play until Ibaka returns or FanDuel significantly adjusts his price. He has averaged 30.3 FDPPG (6.1x value) over his last four outings, and he hit 5x value against this price three times. The matchup against San Antonio isn’t great, but it isn’t a reason to avoid Zubac at this low of a price.
Jordan Clarkson (UTH) $4,600
The Jazz and Nets should combine for quite a few points. Although FanDuel lists him as a point guard, Clarkson spends 86% of his minutes at shooting guard, and the Nets give up the ninth-most FDPPG to that position. Clarkson averages 27 FDPPG (5.9x value), so even a mediocre night for him should be enough for him to pay off.
Patrick Williams (CHI) $4,000
The Bulls have put Lauri Markkanen on the trade block, and he has played less than 30 minutes in his last three games. That includes an 18-minute showing against the Utah Jazz. Meanwhile, Patrick Williams has gone for 30-plus minutes in two of his last three. This is a bit of a speculative play, but it’s one I feel comfortable about since the Cavaliers surrender the seventh-most FDPPG to power forwards.
Cameron Payne (PHO) $3,600
The Suns are on the wrong end of a back-to-back, and that could mean extra work for Payne. It helps that their opponents, the Orlando Magic, find themselves in the same situation. And since Orlando is trying to move some of their players before the deadline, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Suns blow them out — and for Payne to get plenty of garbage-time minutes.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $11,400: If Giannis suits up tonight, he is well-positioned to drop a ton of points against the Celtics. He posted a double-doubled on Boston earlier this season, and he totaled 35 points and 13 rebounds in the narrow loss.
- Luka Doncic (DAL) $11,000: Our projections absolutely love Doncic tonight. The Mavericks and T’Wolves are projected for the slate’s second-highest score, and with Doncic’s absurdly high usage rate, that means a ton of FanDuel points should come his way.
- De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $8,900 and Trae Young (ATL) $8,700: I discussed while I love these two point guards above. The position is absolutely stacked tonight.
- Jrue Holiday (MIL) $8,300:* I’ll wrap up with one final point guard. We saw what Holiday can do without Giannis on Monday — he posted an absurd 62 FD points on the Pacers — so he should be a strong asset if Giannis sits again.
Notable Players to Fade
- James Harden (BKN) $11,300: You can find much better value at shooting guard on this slate. Harden has a tough matchup, as the Jazz surrender the second-fewest FDPPG to point guards (where Harden actually plays). I wouldn’t drop this much on him tonight.
- Malcolm Brogdon (IND) $6,900: Brogdon is questionable for his matchup with the Pistons, and with the Pacers “listening to pitches” for the point guard, you’re better off looking elsewhere tonight.
- Evan Fournier (ORL) $6,600: I’ll wrap up with a pair of Orlando players. Fournier played 35-plus minutes last night, and since he’s on the trade block, the Magic are unlikely to give him much run this evening. Also, the Suns give up the fewest FDPPG to small forwards.
- Aaron Gordon (ORL) $6,300: As with Fournier, Gordon got plenty of usage last night, and the Magic would be wise to limit him this evening. The Suns also boast a top-10 defense against power forwards, where the flexible Gordon spends most of his minutes.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
