FanDuel DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Wednesday (3/3)
After a controversial ejection in last night’s game between the Suns and Lakers, Los Angeles will have to return to the court tonight — but without LeBron James. That game and nine more make up tonight’s FanDuel slate, and if you’re looking for an edge, you’re in the right place.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Wednesday’s FanDuel slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
On tonight’s ten games, only three have posted totals above 230: CHI/NOR (237), GSW/POR (234.5), and CHA/MIN (232.5). Expect to see several players from those games featured below. The totals point to some games to avoid, too, as two games have totals below 220: DET/TOR (213) and IND/CLE (218.5).
On the injury front, the Lakers won’t have LeBron James tonight. That’s not entirely surprising, as the 36-year-old just played 38 stressful minutes against the Suns. The Hornets remain banged up, with Devonte’ Graham out and Gordon Hayward a game-time call. Luka Doncic, Jerami Grant, Tobias Harris, and Buddy Hield could all miss time, too. Reserves on their teams could see an uptick in usage as a result.
One final note — the Raptors will have to play without a handful of starters due to the NBA’s health and safety protocols. Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Pascal Siakam will be out until after the All-Star Break, which gives their few healthy players a big boost in value.
Norman Powell (TOR) $6,800
Let’s start things off with a Raptor. Powell will get a boatload of extra minutes in Toronto’s shrunken lineup, and that should help him hit value against this price. Also, he had already hit 5x value in four of his last six games before Toronto’s health woes began. As the sportsbooks suggest, this game should be low-scoring, but Powell should be responsible for a healthy chunk of Toronto’s points.
Montrezl Harrell (LAL) $6,400
I’m conflicted about Harrell. On the one hand, he hardly did anything last night, and the Lakers gave him just 18 minutes. On the other hand, James and Marc Gasol are both out, and Harrell did get the start last night. I’m not sure what Frank Vogel has planned for this evening, but it should involve a healthy dose of Harrell, as the Kings have struggled against opposing centers. They allow the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) to the position.
Robert Covington (POR) $6,200
I’ll follow Harrell with another high-risk, high-reward play. Covington has been incredibly inconsistent — he just dropped 46 FD points (7.4x value against this price) on Monday, but he was averaging just 16.3 FDPPG through the three games prior. That said, he has 40-FD point upside, and he has hit that mark in four of his last seven appearances. Consider taking a shot on him tonight against the Warriors, who give up the sixth-most FDPPG to power forwards.
Coby White (CHI) $6,000
I absolutely love White on this slate. The Pelicans give up the most FDPPG to point guards due to their poor perimeter defense, and Chicago’s guards should capitalize by scoring a ton of points from deep. The sportsbooks seem to agree, too, as the game is projected for the slate’s highest total.
Dennis Schroder (LAL) $5,500
With James out, Schroder will have to pick up most of the offensive work for Los Angeles. He has been averaging 27.6 FDPPG (5x value) over his last three appearances, and that was with James in the lineup, so look for him to sail far over 5x against the Kings — especially since they allow the sixth-most FDPPG to point guards.
Malik Monk (CHA) $4,900
Monk is a strong play tonight, especially if Gordon Hayward continues to sit. He has averaged 26.7 FDPPG (5.4x value) over his last two games, both of which Hayward missed. The T’Wolves may be a decent defense against small forwards, but Monk actually spends most of his time at shooting guard, and Minnesota allows the fifth-most FDPPG to that position.
Jarred Vanderbilt (MIN) $4,400
The Hornets give up the most FDPPG to power forwards. Vanderbilt has struggled to hit value consistently in recent games, but this is a fantastic bounce-back spot for the big man, especially if Cody Zeller continues to miss time.
Talen Horton-Tucker (LAL) $3,900
With Los Angeles’ laundry list of injuries and absences, Horton-Tucker should get plenty of extra playing time tonight against the Kings. The guard has averaged 20.9 FDPPG over his last three games (5.4x value) despite playing less than 20 minutes in each of them, so he should easily hit 5x value here.
Tomas Satoransky (CHI) $3,700
As I said, I love Chicago’s guards tonight, and Satoransky is no exception. He hasn’t hit 5x value since last Wednesday’s game against the T’Wolves, but matchups with the slow-paced Suns and Nuggets will have that effect. The Pelicans play at a fast pace than both of those teams. Satoransky only needs to score 18.5 FD points to hit 5x value, and rostering him could help you fit in some studs.
Terence Davis (TOR) $3,500
We started with a Raptor, and we’ll end with a Raptor. Davis, priced at the absolute minimum, has hit 5x value just four times all season. However, Toronto’s shortened roster ensures that he’ll see the court, as he is one of three healthy guards.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- James Harden (BKN) $11,200: It’s time for the James Harden revenge game. He’ll head to Houston to take on a floundering Rockets squad that hasn’t won since Feb. 4, in part because they give up so many points to guards — they rank second-worst against shooting guards and eighth-worst against point guards. Harden should have an explosive return to the Space City.
- Damian Lillard (POR) $10,100: I didn’t feature many Blazers or Warriors in the section above, but that’s because the two players I like most are better suited for this section. Lillard has carried Portland to an impressive 19-14 record, good for sixth in the Western Conference, and he’ll have to keep things up to fend off the Golden State, as they rank just one game behind.
- Stephen Curry (GSW) $9,900: Curry’s price is surprisingly low here, as the Blazers give up the fourth-most FDPPG to point guards. In what should be a high-scoring shootout, look for Curry to drive Golden State’s fast-paced offense.
- Zion Williamson (NOR) $8,900: I want to get some exposure to New Orleans tonight, and Williamson is an attractive option. The Bulls give up the ninth-most FDPPG to power forwards, and Williamson has been on a tear lately, averaging 47.6 FDPPG (5.3x value) through his last five outings.
Notable Players to Fade
- Trae Young (ATL) $9,200: I don’t have much to say about Young. Even though the Magic struggle against point guards, Young and the Hawks are on a back-to-back, and you can find better value elsewhere at guard.
- Domantas Sabonis (IND) $9,200: This game’s low posted total makes Sabonis’ high-end salary significantly less attractive. He hasn’t hit 5x value in his last three games, either. I would much rather roster Williamson or a value play.
- Ben Simmons (PHI) $8,500: The Utah Jazz give up the fewest FDPPG to point guards. Although Simmons did explode against Utah earlier in the season, he did so without Joel Embiid, and you’re better off pivoting to another guard.
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