Welcome to the “fifth major” as the best PGA golfers descend upon TPC Sawgrass for the PLAYERS Championship. You might not believe it is the “fifth major” (though the field is stacked, and the cash prizes are ridiculous), but you better write the name in ALL CAPS. Seriously though, this is a great tournament to watch with plenty of drama every year. Last year’s event was canceled because of Covid-19 after Hideki Matsuyama shot a course record 61 in the first round.

FanDuel has nine golfers priced at or above $11,000 this week. DFS players have a salary cap of $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. Dustin Johnson ($12,200) and Bryson DeChambeau ($12,000) are the only golfers in the 12K range. Rory McIlroy is close behind at $11,800. Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas round out FanDuel’s top-five highest-priced golfers at $11,700 and $11,500, respectively.

Work at having a solid process week in and week out instead of getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. The best golfers will perform at a high level throughout the season. However, from week-to-week, a major variance can occur. Any professional golfer is capable of winning. Likewise, even great players can miss the cut.

Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun!

Find out which stats matter the most for PGA DFS

Tournament Notes

• The Pete Dye-designed course is played at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The course is a Par 72 that measures 7,189 yards. It is a beautiful course that has several signature holes, with none more famous than the Par 3 17th island green. There have been more bogeys than birdies at hole number 17.
• TPC Sawgrass has hosted the event since 1982.
• 154 golfers are scheduled to tee it up for The PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP. The top 65 golfers (and ties) make the cut and move on to the weekend. 112 of the 154 golfers have won a PGA Tour event.
• All OWGR Top-50 are scheduled to tee it up this week except for Brooks Koepka and Matthew Wolff.
• Past champions scheduled to play this week include Rory McIlroy (2019), Webb Simpson (2018), Si Woo Kim (2017), Jason Day (2016), Rickie Fowler (2015), Matt Kuchar (2012), Henrik Stenson (2009), Sergio Garcia (2008), Phil Mickelson (2007), and Adam Scott (2004).
• The best finish by a defending champion is T5 (1977, 1990, and 2001). The last time a defending champion finished in the top 10 was in 2005 (T8).
• Water is in play on 17 holes, and there are 88 bunkers scattered throughout the course.
• The greens are small and tricky. In the past, the greens were Bermuda but not this year. They are overseeded and play much more like bentgrass or a smoother poa. In other words, don’t place too much emphasis on putting splits based on the surface.
• This course doesn’t favor any type of golfer. There will be an unknown near the top, and a stud will miss the cut. Bombers, short-hitters, short-game specialists, ball-strikers, and putters will litter the leaderboard. This is a great golf event to watch, but it is difficult for DFS. There is more variance than usual at TPC Sawgrass. One bad hole on Thursday or Friday, and the golfer can be trunk slamming and missing the cut.
• The average winning score in the last 10 years has been 14-under par.
• The cut line the previous five years has been -1, -1, +2, -2, and Even.
• Adam Scott’s 23 rounds in the 60s at TPC Sawgrass is more than any other player in the field.

Course Fit & Key Statistics

Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all key stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. From a stats perspective, this week’s best golfers (in ranked order) are Jon Rahm, Russell Henley, Corey Conners, Viktor Hovland, Dustin Johnson, Webb Simpson, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Tyrrell Hatton, and Tony Finau.

Recent Form
The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) are Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Andrew Putnam, Branden Grace, Tony Finau, Dustin Johnson, Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, and Matthew Fitzpatrick. Among the golfers in this week’s field, Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland have the longest streak of made cuts on the PGA Tour with 23 and 22, respectively.  Jon Rahm (18) and Webb Simpson (14) are next. Tony Finau, Zach Johnson, and Joaquin Niemann each have 12 straight-made PGA cuts. Dustin Johnson (11), Patton Kizzire (11), Adam Scott (11), and Patrick Cantlay (10) are the only other golfers with a double-digit cut streak.

Course History
I tend to emphasize baseline talent and recent form, but there is a lot to be said for golfers that enjoy playing at certain courses. Some courses just line up better for some golfers. Comfortability with the way a golf course plays can give a golfer confidence going into the week. The ten golfers that rate out the best in my course history model include Adam Scott, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Ian Poulter, Tommy Fleetwood, and Si Woo Kim.

Pete Dye Designed Courses
A Pete Dye course has some unique characteristics, and many players seem to do well at the various tracks that he designed. His courses tend to reward second shots and all-around play. Distance is not a necessity at his courses. In my customized model measuring both long and short-term form at Pete Dye courses, the following players rank out the best: Patrick Cantlay, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Abraham Ancer, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Tommy Fleetwood, Cameron Davis, Paul Casey, and Sam Burns.

Official World Golf Ranking
All the statistics and course history are good to know, but sports (particularly DFS golf) often come down to betting on talent and playing the best overall players. Sure, salary is involved, but fitting as many of the world’s best golfers in your lineups increases your chances for success. According to the OWGR, the best ten golfers in this field (in ranked order) are Dustin Johnson (No. 1), Jon Rahm (No. 2), Justin Thomas (No. 3), Collin Morikawa (No. 4), Xander Schauffele (No. 5), Bryson DeChambeau (No. 6), Tyrrell Hatton (No. 7), Patrick Reed (No. 8), Patrick Cantlay (No. 9), and Webb Simpson (No. 10).

Favorite $11,000+ Plays

All the best golfers in the world are here, and it is hard to go wrong picking any of them. If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you’ll know that I love playing Dustin Johnson. However, I plan on going very light on all of the top-priced golfers this week. This event can be more volatile than other golf tournaments, and I don’t want to try and pick the right high-end golfer that will win as well as the low-end golfer that will finish in the top-10. I will be using a very balanced approach this week. In 2019, four of the top-six finishers were from the 8K or 9K range. In 2018, seven of the top-10 finishers were in the 8K or 9K range, plus the winner Webb Simpson was only $10,100.

Collin Morikawa ($11,300)
He is the fourth-ranked golfer in the world but is only the seventh most expensive golfer on FanDuel. He is also coming off a win in his last start at a course that he hadn’t played before (WGC-Workday). He was 4-under par here last year (T7) after the first-round when play was halted.

Webb Simpson ($11,200)
Of course, I am picking Webb. He is my favorite golfer, he is playing well, and he likes this course. What’s not to like? Plus, his caddie, Paul Tesori, lives near the course and has played here thousands of times. In fact, Tesori’s grandfather was a starter at this course. The inside knowledge might partially explain some of Simpson’s success here (three straight top-16 finishes, including a win in 2018). Rostering Simpson rarely hurts you as he has 13 top-20 finishes in his last 17 events, including a T6 in his last event (WGC-Workday). He does everything great except hit it long off-the-tee. Distance is not necessary at this (or any other Pete Dye) course.

Patrick Cantlay ($11,100)
He had himself a nice little 67 last year in the first round at TPC Sawgrass before the tournament was canceled. This is not surprising since he ranks first in my customized model for Pete Dye-designed courses. A bad first round hurt him here in 2019, but he finished T22 and T21 the two years prior. In his last six PGA events, he has finished no worse than T17 (at the Masters). This includes a win at the ZOZO, a runner-up at the American Express, and a third at Pebble Beach.

Tony Finau ($10,800)
In his last five worldwide events, he has four top-five finishes. His only finish outside the top five was his last start at the WGC-Workday, resulting in a T14 finish. Overall, he has played the weekend in 18 of his last 19 events, including 13 in a row. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks fourth in this field in total strokes gained and fifth in fantasy points but is only the 11th most-expensive golfer.

Other 10K or 11K golfers I may consider are Xander Schauffele ($11,400), Viktor Hovland ($10,900), Daniel Berger ($10,300), and Jason Day ($10,000)

Favorite $9,000 Plays

Adam Scott ($9,900)
Since his T12 here back in 2019, he has only played in 31 events worldwide but has made the cut in all but three of them, including a runner-up and two wins. He currently is on a streak of 11 straight-made cuts. He hasn’t shown much upside lately, with only one top-10 during that streak. However, he’s been solid, and his course history at TPC Sawgrass is good. The 2004 PLAYERS champion has eight straight-made cuts here, including four straight top-12 finishes.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,900)
He has played the weekend in five of his last six worldwide starts, all resulting in top-20 finishes. This includes his T10 last week and his win at the prestigious DP World Tour Championship in Dubai. He has made the cut here in each of his last two starts. Overall, he is ranked 16th in the world but is only the 21st most expensive golfer on FanDuel this week.

Will Zalatoris ($9,600)
Willy Z is a top-10 and top-20 machine. It doesn’t matter the field strength or course setup; he finds a way to get it done. Since the start of 2020, he has made 26/27 professional cuts, including nine in a row on the PGA Tour. More than half (15) of his professional starts since 2020 have resulted in top-10 finishes, including his T10 at last week’s API. He is below the FanDuel average roster price, which makes this an easy play for me this week.

Abraham Ancer ($9,400)
The last five times he has played a Pete Dye course, he has finished no worse than T11. That is why he is ranked fourth in my customized model for Pete Dye specialists. He has only played TPC Sawgrass once and finished T12 in 2019. After making the cut in 24/25 events, he has now missed the cut in two of his last four events, but those two resulted in a T18 at WGC-Workday and a T5 at the American Express. Overall, he has top-20 finishes in seven of his last 12 events.

Other 9K golfers I will be considering for MME builds are Paul Casey ($9,900), Sungjae Im ($9,800), Joaquin Niemann ($9,800), Cameron Smith ($9,700), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($9,500), Max Homa ($9,200), Francesco Molinari ($9,100), Sam Burns ($9,000), Russell Henley ($9,000), and Kevin Na ($9,000).

Favorite $8,000 Plays

Chris Kirk ($8,800)
Overall, he has made the cut in 10 of his last 12 starts. In his five events this calendar year, he has a pair of T16 finishes, including one at the Pete Dye-designed American Express. He also was runner-up at the Sony and then T8 last week at the API. He is not elite in any one area but has a great all-around game. In this stacked field, he ranks 18th in this field over the last 24 rounds in fantasy scoring, and 20th in total strokes gained.

Cameron Tringale ($8,800)
He has made the cut in 10 of his last 11 starts, including eight in a row. During that stretch, five of his starts have resulted in top-20 finishes, including a T3 at the RSM and a T7 at Pebble Beach. He is known mostly for his ball-striking abilities, but he has a very good all-around game. He hasn’t played here in a few years but has made the cut in his last three trips, including a T16 in 2016.

Brian Harman ($8,400)
He is on a run of 17 made cuts in his last 18 events, including six in a row. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but his best finish during this stretch was a T8 at the American Express, which happens to be a Pete Dye-designed course. He has made the cut here in four of his last five starts, including a T8 in 2019 and 2015.

Andrew Putnam ($8,400)
Just a few years ago, he was a top-50 golfer in the world. It appears that he has found his form again as he has been on fire lately. His T4 at last week’s API gave him back-to-back top-five finishes. It gave him his third top-10 finish during a streak of six straight-made cuts. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks 12th in total strokes gained. He often lives or dies with his short game, but his approach game has been getting better lately. He also ranks first in this field in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds.

Other 8K golfers I will be considering in my balanced builds are Si Woo Kim ($8,900), Lanto Griffin ($8,900), Ian Poulter ($8,700), Cameron Davis ($8,700), Brendon Todd ($8,600), Doug Ghim ($8,300), Brendan Steele ($8,200), Gary Woodland ($8,200), Richy Werenski ($8,100), and Zach Johnson ($8,000).

Favorite $7,000 Plays

There are some good values on DraftKings in the 6K range, but I don’t like the value options on FanDuel this week. My FD builds will be much more balanced, whereas my DK builds will be more stars and scrubs. I do not plan on playing any 7K golfers this week on FanDuel. However, if I were to sprinkle some guys into my MME builds, I might consider Harold Varner ($7,900), Matthew NeSmith ($7,800), Patton Kizzire ($7,800), Kyle Stanley ($7,500), K.H. Lee ($7,400), Doc Redman ($7,100), C.T. Pan ($7,000), and Jerry Kelly ($7,000).

Get FREE picks and betting advice for The PLAYERS Championship at BettingPros

Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.