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Players To Buy And Sell In Dynasty Leagues Post Free Agency (2021 Fantasy Football)

Mar 24, 2021

 
Last week was a busy one for the National Football League. The new league year officially began, which meant that free agents began signing with new organizations or (in many cases) remained home. With most of the biggest names having signed by now, our writers share some players to buy and sell in dynasty leagues following last week’s chaos.

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Q1. Which player are you trying to buy the most in dynasty leagues post free agency?

Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF)
Davis was very solid as a rookie with 35 receptions for 599 yards and seven touchdowns in 2020. He posted those totals despite being fourth on the depth chart and not having a normal offseason in his rookie year due to COVID-19. I think he benefits from the release of John Brown while signing a 34-year-old Emmanuel Sanders does not concern me on a one-year deal. Sanders has not had a 1,000-yard season since 2016 and he has not had more than five touchdowns since 2015 (when he totaled only six). He is veteran depth at this point, not someone that is there to be a starter. Davis is set up nicely to be in three-wide sets this year on a team that loves to throw the ball. The combination of his age, playing with Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs to take away coverage, and the lack of great competition from other wide receivers puts Davis in the position to be a sleeper this year that sees 100 targets with breakout potential no later than his third year. He is everything dynasty managers should be looking for in a young player with upside on a great offense.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
It’s hard to pinpoint exactly why fantasy managers are out on Mixon this offseason but it doesn’t really matter if it lowers his price. Mixon was injured last year, and largely considered a dud, but he is going to return at 100% with a healthy QB in Joe Burrow on a familiar offensive scheme. He turns 25 this year and is already on his second contract, meaning he’s not going anywhere for a while. If the Bengals take the next logical step forward with Burrow at the helm, Mixon should easily finish in the top-10 at RB in fantasy. Mixon is currently going at the end of the third round in dynasty startups as RB18. That’s some great value in my opinion. In some leagues his current manager might be willing to sell for rookie picks or younger lottery tickets, but give me the known asset in Mixon. I think he’s got a higher floor than most of his RB2 peers and a much higher ceiling. That’s a win-win for me all day.
– Andrew Hall (@AndrewHallFF)

Jamaal Williams (RB – DET)
When targeting players to buy and sell, I like to go against the grain. Right now, the D’Andre Swift hype train has reached full steam. Although he is the dynasty ECR’s RB8, he’s already starting to creep his way into the first round in many startups. While I think that Swift is a very gifted athlete, I think people are underestimating the potential usage that Williams can see in Detroit. He just inked a two-year/$6M contract, putting him in the top-25 for running back salaries. Williams was an annoying thorn in the side for Aaron Jones managers over the last four seasons, and I expect a similar role with the Lions. Williams averaged 10.9 touches per game over the previous four years, extrapolating to 174.7 per 16 games. Considering Adrian Peterson‘s 174 touches in 2020, those vacated touches seem to have found an immediate home. Williams has a very similar skill set to Swift. The second-year back out of Georgia will be the preferred option, but given Detroit’s history of injuries to early-picked running backs, they may roll out more of a timeshare than people want to imagine. Only 20 running backs saw 200 touches in 2020, and just five more saw 175-plus. If Williams can be slotted in for 175-200 touches in 2021, that volume alone should put him in the flex range of running backs, and his pass-catching upside should give him a solid floor. While everyone is running rampant with Swift’s projections for 2021, I’ll be quietly making moves for Williams. Not to mention, if Swift misses any time, Williams is one of the top handcuffs in the league.
– Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge_FF)

Corey Davis (WR – NYJ)
Heading into free agency, it was assumed that the Tennessee Titans would do everything in their power to retain Corey Davis. However, Davis inked a three-year, $37.5 million deal early in free agency with the New York Jets. In his final season with the Titans, Davis finished as WR31 in half-PPR leagues as he battled for targets with A.J. Brown in a run-heavy offense that featured Derrick Henry prominently. Also, Davis averaged 2.67 yards per route run in 2020, which was the fourth-most among wide receivers. With Davis joining the Jets, he should get a remarkable chance to produce WR1 numbers. Davis is currently ranked as WR41 in the ECR and that is way too low, regardless of the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback situation in New York. All signs point toward the Jets adding one of the coveted quarterback prospects in Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, or Trey Lance in the 2021 NFL Draft. Even with Denzel Mims expected to have an expanded role in his second year, and the signing of Keelan Cole for the Jets, sign me up for more shares of Davis this offseason.
– Skyler Carlin (@skyler_carlin)

Chris Carson< (RB – SEA)/a>
Carson signed a new deal with Seattle, which is good news for fantasy owners. He averaged over 1,100 yards rushing between 2018 and 2019 and he has also improved in the passing game registering 37 catches in each of the last two seasons. While most of us want to see Russell Wilson cook, Pete Carroll has professed that the Seahawks want to run the ball. Carson should see 20 touches per game, giving him bell-cow potential. The combination of past production and the financial commitment made by Seattle tells me the Seahawks realize he is their best bet to control the game on the ground. Carson is cheap by dynasty standards and would fit nicely as an RB2 with upside on a lot of rosters. He did have a mild foot sprain that hindered his 2020 production but there is no reason to believe he won’t bounce back from that and rack up over 1,400 total yards next season. Buy with confidence.
– Jason Kamlowsky (@JasonKamlowsky)

Q2. Which player are you trying to sell the most in dynasty leagues post free agency?

A.J. Dillon (RB – GB)
Dillon was looking like a player that was going to be a breakout star in 2021. He was a second-round pick in 2020 going to a team that runs the ball well and that was going to lose Aaron Jones in free agency in 2021. Dillon showed flashes of stardom in his rookie year, especially in the Tennessee Titans game, when he tallied 21 carries for 124 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Things were looking even better when the Packers did not tag Jones, signaling he was going to hit the open market and cash in on his last two years. Then Jones threw a wrench into Dillon’s fantasy situation, re-signing with the Packers for four years and $48 million. That means Dillon is going to go back to being a backup that spells Jones, not the starting running back. The only good news for Dillon is that Jamaal Williams signed with Detroit and that means there should be a role for Dillon in an offense that utilizes multiple backs. He will see an uptick from the 46 rushing attempts he had as a rookie with Williams gone. Dillon is more RB4 or RB5 and a good handcuff to Jones. He has upside if Jones were to suffer an injury. That is a big fall for a player that was looking like he might be a fantasy star before Jones unexpectedly resigned in Green Bay.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)

James Robinson (RB – JAC)
When the Jaguars signed veteran journeyman running back Carlos Hyde during free agency, James Robinson dynasty managers rejoiced. But I’m not sold on Robinson being the bell cow in 2021 and beyond. A new coach and new regime could mean big changes for Robinson, and there’s still the NFL draft to come. Even if Robinson dodges every bullet between now and September, he still has question marks as an undrafted player. We all remember Philip Lindsay’s breakout year, but how did he do after that? Here, let me help: not great. I’m a fan of Robinson’s talent but even with the team only adding the small threat of Hyde thus far I’m just not sure I want to carry Robinson into 2021. If I can get fair value for him I’m easily moving on from him, but I’m not selling for peanuts either. His ceiling is pretty high, but his floor is one of the lowest at the position as of March.
– Andrew Hall (@AndrewHallFF)

Evan Engram (TE – NYG)
Through all of the offseason moves, I think Evan Engram’s value took the biggest hit. Engram’s efficiency and health have been questioned over the last few seasons. His case for being drafted as a TE1 resulted from seeing 7.1 targets per game since being drafted 23rd overall in 2017. Now, with the additions of Kenny Golladay, Kyle Rudolph, and John Ross, that target share will assuredly dip. His price tag probably won’t garner much of a return right now, especially after the plethora of lowlights throughout the 2020 season. But there is likely at least one league mate who is still betting on Engram’s talent, and if so, I’d happily swap him for a second-round pick if possible. Engram saw a team-high 109 targets last season, with Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard right behind him at 97 and 90. Slayton dealt with some nagging injuries, and Shepard missed four games, so you can argue that Engram wasn’t even the preferred pass-catcher in 2020. With Saquon Barkley returning and seeing 6.5 targets per game over his career, that’s another mouth to feed! Engram simply saw the majority of targets due to a clean bill of health. With Golladay now in town though, it’s nearly a guarantee that Engram will not lead the team in targets again. In addition to Golladay, Rudolph’s presence will cut into his touchdown rate. Although he only hauled in one touchdown in 2020, Rudolph has caught 31 over the last six seasons, being as reliable as they come in the red zone. All of these offseason acquisitions spell good news for the Giants, Daniel Jones, and Barkley. Unfortunately though, it appears to be coming at Engram’s expense.
– Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge_FF)

Mike Evans (WR – TB)
Hear me out. Mike Evans has been the model of consistency in fantasy football, becoming the first wide receiver in NFL history to accrue seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career. With that being said, the return of Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski this offseason lowers the ceiling of Evans in Tampa Bay’s aerial attack. Evans finished as WR10 in half-PPR leagues in 2020, with 78 of his 213.6 fantasy points coming in the form of touchdowns. The former first-round pick out of Texas A&M also benefited from Godwin missing four games due to injury in 2020. Seeing that Godwin and the Buccaneers are both interested in getting a long-term deal done after he signed his franchise tag, it’s hard to view Evans as a must-have option in dynasty leagues moving forward. Besides the return of Godwin and Gronkowski, Tampa Bay has expressed interest in bringing back Antonio Brown. Lastly, both Scott Miller and Tyler Johnson earned themselves more opportunities in the passing game in 2021. There’s no doubt that you can still get a decent return for Evans given his name and consistent production. As someone who has an ample amount of shares of Evans in dynasty leagues, I’m trying to offload some of my shares of Evans due to his cloudy outlook heading into 2021.
– Skyler Carlin (@skyler_carlin)

D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)
It’s bad enough that the Lions feature one of the worst rosters in the NFL but they went out and added Jamaal Williams, who will eat into Swift’s workload. It’s an unfortunate turn of events for the 2020 2nd Round pick who was looking like he could be a feature back this coming year. Swift averaged 4.6 YPC last year for Detroit but he really shined in the passing game with 46 receptions. On a team that is starved for talent on both sides of the ball, Swift was primed to have an opportunity to get 250+ touches. The signing of Williams severely dampens that projection as he himself has proved to be adept in the passing game and the Lions will almost certainly have some sort of timeshare between the two backs. Even if it is something close to a 60-40 split, Swift should no longer be viewed as a cornerstone piece of dynasty teams and I would be looking to move him to someone who is still a believer. The shelf life of most running backs is short enough without having to worry about Swift wasting his best years mired in a timeshare.
– Jason Kamlowsky (@JasonKamlowsky)

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