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The Ultimate Dynasty Guide: March Edition (2021 Fantasy Football)

 
Things are looking very different across the Dynasty landscape than what they were just a few days ago. NFL free agency has struck and there’s a lot to sift through and decipher after plenty of players have found new homes.

In the immediate aftermath of free agency, it’s important to find your footing as a Dynasty manager after the chaos of the previous few days. While everyone else is still reeling and trying to figure out who is now playing where, you can sneak in and take advantage of this chaos with some savvy moves in your league. Being able to identify who benefited from a player’s arrival – or departure – before anyone else in your league does is a huge advantage and it can set you up for success now and into the future.

With that in mind, below is my second edition of the Ultimate Dynasty Guide! In here, you’ll find everything you need to get ahead of your league-mates that will have them questioning whether or not you have insider information. Don’t worry, it’s all legal.

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Let’s build a Dynasty, shall we?

2021 Prospect Buzz

Quarterback – Trey Lance (QB – North Dakota State)

Trey Lance‘s stock is on the rise after a solid showing at his Pro Day.

Reaction: Lance showed everything that I loved about his film at his Pro Day. He’s got a cannon of an arm and was able to make some jaw-dropping throws. There are still some minor consistencies, but his overall game is really polished and refined coming out of college. Now, it’s just a matter of how do NFL GMs value him with his limited starting experience?

Running Back – Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – Oklahoma)

Stevenson had some buzz surrounding him, but a poor showing in the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day may prevent that from escalating.

Reaction: After running a 4.63 40-yard dash, it’s unlikely that we see Stevenson’s draft stock continue to rise heading into the NFL Draft. The time is not terrible when you factor in his size, but it’s not going to be enough to have his stock continue to rise. I expect Stevenson to go off the board somewhere in Rounds 4 or 5 now.

Wide Receiver – Josh Imatorbhebhe (WR – Illinois)

Imatorbhebhe jumped 46.5″ in the vertical at the Illinois Pro Day.

Reaction: This sets the record for the highest vertical jump in NFL Scouting Combine history. Imatorbhebhe absolutely destroyed his Pro Day workouts and he’s now put himself on everyone’s radar. He’s a project WR, but the tools and traits are all there for him to develop into something down the road.

Tight End – Brevin Jordan (TE – Miami)

Brevin Jordan continues to get comparisons to Jonnu Smith.

Reaction: This is obviously good news for Jordan after watching Smith get handed a $50 million contract in free agency. The athleticism is evident when you put on Jordan’s tape and he could end up being a tremendous value on draft day.

Second-Year Risers and Fallers

James Robinson (RB – Jacksonville Jaguars) ⬆️

After watching Carlos Hyde be signed to this depth chart, this essentially cements Robinson as the main ball-carrier for this offense next season. He might lose some touches here or there to Hyde, but the Jaguars didn’t bring in a top-tier name at RB. While they still might add a pass-catching back later on in free agency or the draft, Robinson’s going to have a clear role next season. His stock was in limbo until we got some clarity on how the new coaching staff felt, but now that we have it, Robinson’s stock is on the rise.

Gabriel Davis (WR – Buffalo Bills) ⬇️

After the Bills released John Brown, it seemed like Davis was going to step right into the WR3 role in this offense. However, the Bills went out and signed Emmanuel Sanders in free agency. Sanders at this point of his career is unlikely to be a full-time player, so Davis could still rotate in, but Sanders didn’t sign in Buffalo just to ride the bench. Davis’ fantasy stock appeared to be on the rise for a few days, but now it’s taken a slight hit. He’ll still be a valuable depth WR for your Dynasty rosters, but you might need to curb your optimism.

5 Dynasty Players to Target

(All expected cost estimations were the results of polls on Twitter)

Jonnu Smith (TE – New England Patriots)

The arrow appeared to be pointing up for Jonnu after Day 1 of NFL Free Agency, but that optimism quickly came crashing back down after the Patriots also signed Hunter Henry. While Jonnu should still be heavily involved in this offense, it’s a low-passing volume offense that now has multiple mouths to feed at the TE position. Can he still be a value in Dynasty leagues though? The Patriots clearly value him very highly and have a clear plan for how they’re going to use him. At the TE position, that’s all you can ask sometimes. His value might be at its lowest point right now and there are some Dynasty managers that are completely out on the athletic tight end.

Expected Cost: 2021 2nd round draft pick.

Anthony Firkser (TE – Tennessee Titans)

With Smith leaving town for New England, there’s an opening in Tennessee for the starting tight end spot. Not only that, but there’s a massive and glaring need for pass-catchers in this offense. Firkser was a thorn in Smith’s fantasy managers last season and he’s now been re-signed by the Titans. He’s shown that he can be a reliable receiving weapon and Ryan Tannehill knows him. Heading into 2021, he could be a valuable depth piece for Dynasty rosters that need some reinforcement at the tight end position.

Expected Cost: 2021 3rd round draft pick.

Odell Beckham Jr (WR – Cleveland Browns)

The perceived value right now for OBJ is at an all-time low. His injury history plays a huge role in that, of course, but let’s not forget about the talent level that we’re dealing with here. If you’re a competing Dynasty roster that’s looking for that one piece to push you over the edge, Beckham’s a fantastic buy low option right now. He doesn’t need to be your locked-in WR1 anymore. You can get him as your WR3 or WR4 in some places.

Expected Cost: 2021 2nd round draft pick.

Joe Mixon (RB – Cincinnat Bengals)

Based on my Twitter timeline – and Dynasty startup ADP – there are some people that are completely out on Mixon. This is bizarre to me due to the fact that he’s still only 24 years old, the offense is ascending, he has a huge workload when he’s healthy, and there about to be some significant investments into the offensive line. While the Twitter poll showed that the majority of people would still require a 2021 1st to move him, there are some people in your league that will move him for less than that. It’s worth at least checking in on his trade cost in your league.

Expected Cost: 2021 1st round draft pick.

Michael Pittman (WR – Indianapolis Colts)

At the time of writing, the Indianapolis Colts have not brought in anyone of note in free agency at the WR position. Heading into 2021, their receiving trio could very well be Pittman, Parris Campbell, and Zach Pascal. While there’s always the possibility that they add someone in the NFL Draft, Pittman appears to be the locked-in WR1 for this team next season. Carson Wentz and Pittman are already working out together and building chemistry and Pittman has the talent to be a true fantasy football star. Right now, as evidenced by the Twitter poll results, Pittman’s a screaming value in Dynasty leagues.

Expected Cost: 2021 2nd round draft pick.

Check out Mike Tagliere’s latest Dynasty Trade Value Chart partner-arrow

3 Dynasty Players to Move

(All expected return estimations were the results of polls on Twitter)

Hunter Henry (TE – New England Patriots)

Henry had some hype surrounding him heading into free agency, but that came to a screeching halt after he signed with the New England Patriots one day after Jonnu. The Patriots are going to live out of 12-personnel, but there simply might not be enough passing volume to support both options. Smith should be moved all over the formation and given creative touches, which leaves Henry as the primary blocking tight end. I’m not expecting big things from Henry next season and it might be time to simply cut your losses now if you can find someone in your league who’s a fan of the landing spot.

Expected Return: 2021 2nd round draft pick.

DK Metcalf (WR – Seattle Seahawks)

Metcalf is one of the league’s best ascending wide receivers. He’s a dominant player on the field and he’s tied to one of the best QBs in the NFL. However, Russell Wilson might not be in Seattle long-term. Wilson has been “vocal” in his desire for more say in the offense and personnel, which Pete Carroll seems hellbent on not giving him. There’s a strong possibility that he still forces his way out of Seattle and, if that’s the case, Metcalf could be playing with a much inferior starting QB in 2021 and beyond. Trading away Metcalf is absolutely a risky move due to how talented he is and how much he produces with Wilson as his QB. But if Wilson’s no longer there and Seattle returns to a more run-oriented approach, his fantasy outlook takes a nose dive. Selling him for top value now could be in the best interest of your Dynasty squad.

Expected Return: Multiple 2021 1st round draft picks.

Julio Jones (WR – Atlanta Falcons)

Julio’s one of the greatest to ever suit up. He’s dominant when he’s on the field, even if he’s not 100% healthy. However, Julio’s coming towards the end of his career and it might be time to sell him now for whatever you can get, especially if you’re a rebuilding roster.

Expected Return: 2021 2nd round draft pick.

Dynasty Mailbag

Q1. What do we do with Josh Jacobs after Jon Gruden’s OL moves? Is he less reliable?
– @DosGnu

While Josh Jacobs‘ fantasy outlook certainly took a hit after the Raiders moved on from Trent Brown, Gabe Jackson, and Rodney Hudson, it took even more of a hit after the Kenyan Drake signing. Jacobs has the talent to be a fantasy football superstar if he could receive enough work out of the backfield as a receiver. In previous seasons, he’d seen enough work on the ground to be a solid fantasy option, but Gruden was always rotating in guys like Jalen Richard, Devontae Booker, Theo Riddick, etc. That appears to be the plan again for this season, but maybe to even greater levels with Drake now in town for $7 million per year. With the offensive line downgrade, Drake’s presence now in this backfield, and Gruden’s overall lack of commitment to Jacobs as a 3-down player, it’s not looking great heading into 2021 and beyond.

Q2. Why so low on Cam Newton?? Only a couple months in a new system, got COVID halfway through the season, and had your next door neighbor and your friends’ little brother to throw passes to in New England.
– @Lukeniemeyer2

On The FantasyPros Football Podcast, I’ve been the one who’s unwilling to completely bury Newton from a fantasy football perspective based on what we saw last season. The excuses for poor production are all there and a full off-season in the same system should do wonders for him heading into next year. With that being said, we still have to stay measured in how we view Newton heading into 2021. There’s a possibility that what we saw on tape last year wasn’t completely due to the supporting cast around him and/or his health. He may simply not have it anymore. I’m still willing to roster Newton as a QB3 on my Dynasty roster, but I certainly don’t want to completely rely on him as someone to carry my team.

Q3. I’m a legitimate contender with Deshaun Watson as my QB1 (SF TE premium). With the recent news and him potentially sitting out the season, should I sell low on him for a young QB to try and stay in my contending window? Or hold out hope that things work out and he plays?
– @JoeyCilinceon

There’s absolutely the possibility that Deshaun sits out the first 10 or so games of the season. However, he will have to report around then in order for it to count as an eligible season. Otherwise, he’s simply in the same boat all over again next year and he’s wasting away valuable years of his career. While we know that this runs deeper for Watson than something as simplistic as contract discussions, I do expect Watson to play at some point this season. Selling him right now in a Superflex league is very dangerous and you’re not going to get your true investment back. What happens if Watson gets traded to the Carolina Panthers at some point this off-season? You’ll have moved off of him too early and it’ll hurt your fantasy roster. Hold tight for right now and let’s see how the rest of the off-season plays out.

Q4. Now that Curtis Samuel is in Washington what is his value and how does this affect Terry McLaurin?
– @Ziller87

This doesn’t affect McLaurin in any way for me, personally. I think it actually might help him as it gives defenses another player that they have to focus in on stopping. McLaurin moved up into my top-12 Dynasty WRs after the Ryan Fitzpatrick signing and I didn’t move him after Samuel signed on with Washington too. For Samuel, he’s always had the talent, but it’s never translated to consistent fantasy production in Carolina. Now as the No. 2 option in this offense, paired with a QB who’s willing to send it all over the field, Samuel’s in line for a big season. He moved up into my top-36 WRs in my Dynasty rankings.

Q5. Cardinals haven’t made any moves for RB as of yet. Does this help Chase Edmonds‘ cause?
– @RooneyJakob

As of right now, it certainly does help Edmonds’ fantasy value due to the fact that he’s the only RB of note on this roster. However, he’s not going to be the Cardinals’ long-term answer. I fully expect them to make a bargain signing at RB in the later stages of free agency or potentially look to the draft and bring in a Javonte Williams, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, etc. Edmonds isn’t cut out to be a full workhorse back and the Cardinals know that. Selling him high right now to someone who does believe that is a very smart move.

Kyle Yates’ Updated Dynasty Rankings

 

 


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Kyle Yates is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @KyleYNFL.

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