The wide receiver position is loaded. Fantasy value is available from the start of the draft through the end of it. The following wideouts appear overvalued. I’m advocating avoiding them at their average draft position (ADP). The ADPs are from 12-team BestBall10 leagues as of March 13.
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D.K. Metcalf (SEA): ADP 18.92
The 2020 season was a tale of two halves for the Seahawks. Russell Wilson cooked for the first half, and Metcalf ate. The physically-freaky wideout scored the third-most fantasy points in point-per-reception (PPR) formats and second-most points per game in Week 1 through Week 9, according to our Fantasy Leaders tool. He ranked 17th in scoring from Week 10 through Week 16, and his weekly average for scoring dipped from 21.0 points to 14.1.
Metcalf’s production slide coincided with the Seahawks reverting to a less pass-happy approach. They tied for the sixth-highest pass percentage (62%) from Week 1 through Week 9 before scaling back to a 57% passing rate from Week 10 through Week 17, per Sharp Football Stats. The change back to an offensive philosophy head coach Pete Carroll seems to prefer is alarming in its own right.
However, Wilson’s name surfacing in trade rumors is even more alarming for Metcalf and the passing game. Former Seahawk, Cliff Avril, thinks the trade rumors are overblown. Even if he’s correct and the Seahawks retain Wilson, I’m out on Metcalf as the fifth receiver off the board.
Adam Thielen (MIN): ADP 44.99
I loved Thielen last year in the wake of the Vikings trading former running mate Stefon Diggs to the Bills. I believed he was going to be a target hog. My infatuation with Thielen was rewarded with him scoring the 10th-most PPR points at receiver. The results were great, but he didn’t get there how I anticipated.
He scored 14 receiving touchdowns, the third-most scores through the air in 2020. Thielen was second fiddle to rookie wideout Justin Jefferson in volume, tallying 108 targets, 74 receptions, and 925 receiving yards compared to 125 targets, 88 receptions, and 1,400 receiving yards. The veteran’s touchdown-heavy formula for success is a difficult one to duplicate, and I’m skeptical of him doing so again in 2021.
Additionally, Minnesota’s passing volume projects to remain low on a run-heavy team. The Vikings passed at the sixth-lowest percentage (54%) last year, and their preference is to ride stud running back Dalvin Cook. Thielen’s ADP makes him WR18, and that’s too rich for my blood.
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Tyler Lockett (SEA): ADP 53.64
My concerns about the Seahawks reverting to a run-centric offense in Metcalf’s write-up apply to Lockett, too. Ditto for Wilson potentially being moved.
Lockett’s 2020 production is another area of concern. He finished 13th in PPR scoring among receivers but had massive first-half and second-half splits. He ranked fifth in PPR points and third in PPR per-game scoring from Week 1 through Week 9 before a nosedive to tied for 34th from Week 10 through Week 16. His per-game scoring cratered from 19.6 points to 10.8.
Lockett had a pair of blow-up games that skew his overall numbers, ripping off a 9-100-3 line in Week 3 and erupting for 15-200-3 in Week 7. The spike-week potential would seemingly play well in Best Ball leagues, but I’m dubious of his weekly ceiling if the Seahawks aren’t going to allow Russ to cook again. Further, his production was underwhelming after his Week 7 monstrous showing. He cleared 70 receiving yards only one time the rest of the year, tallying a 12-90-2 line on 14 targets in Week 17. I can’t justify selecting him as WR25 or anywhere in that vicinity in any league type.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (FA): ADP 67.21
Smith-Schuster is a free-agent, so perhaps he’ll land in a dreamy situation for his fantasy potential. He’s coming off of his least efficient season as a pro, though. Nine touchdowns and 6.1 receptions per game buoyed his fantasy scoring and led to a WR17 finish in PPR scoring, but the efficiency was dreadful.
Smith-Schuster tied for the 38th-lowest mark (seventh-worst among wideouts, specifically) out of 135 qualified pass-catchers with 6.5 yards per target, according to Pro-Football-Reference. He also ranked 82nd in yards per route run, per Player Profiler.
The offense and Ben Roethlisberger’s post-Tommy-John-surgery noodle arm didn’t do Smith-Schuster any favors. However, handwaving away the wideout’s slide in production since the Steelers parted ways with Antonio Brown after the 2018 season isn’t something I’m willing to do. The 24-year-old receiver could exit my don’t-draft-receivers list if he lands in the right situation, but he resides on that list for the time being.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
