Each passing week gives us a stronger sample size for the 2021 season and moves us closer to the point where fantasy managers must make difficult decisions. Soon, we won’t be describing the season as “young” or arguing that anything is “too early.” We’re in it now, and we’re gaining valuable data.
This type of sample size analysis organically worked its way into the bulk of this column. Almost every player listed in either direction has an underlying statistic that varies from what we see on the surface. It’s what we can best use as a barometer for what’s “real” and what isn’t.
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Hitters to Buy
Shohei Ohtani (UT – LAA)
Before the season, buzz surrounding two-way player Shohei Ohtani returning to the pitching mound. Indeed, it happened, but Ohtani’s value is not only confined to him pitching. Ohtani has easily been one of the best hitters in the league — he enters Wednesday batting .286 with seven home runs, tied with five players for the most in the American League.
The key with Ohtani has always been how he could be utilized on a fantasy baseball roster. As one person — where you get the production of both the hitter and pitcher, albeit occasionally by announcing which “side” you will use for a given period — Ohtani was a major draft target because of the likelihood one of his two skills would translate well. Just under one month into the season, he’s actually more desirable at the plate than on the mound.
Barring injury, a note we unfortunately always must associate with Ohtani, he shouldn’t see any noticeable decline in his hitting numbers.
Yuli Gurriel (1B – HOU)
The Houston Astros have fielded quite the potent lineup over the past few seasons. More names may have changed last offseason compared to recent years, but the offense continues to thrive. Houston is tied with the White Sox for MLB’s fourth-most runs per game as of this writing. One of the reasons for the team’s continued offensive success? Yuli Gurriel.
Gurriel currently ranks sixth in Offensive WAR. Every one of his numbers is solid, except for stolen bases. What’s more enticing is that none of Gurriel’s numbers are too extraordinary. Put another way, there isn’t major regression ahead. If anything, Gurriel was outstanding in 2019, struggled in the small sample size of 2020, and is only now recapturing his approach from two years ago.
Nick Solak (2B/3B/OF – TEX)
One of my favorite trends to follow is the former sleeper or breakout candidate who failed, but then delivered on said promise the following year. The circumstances for increased production were still valid in those situations, but the numbers lagged.
Nick Solak is the personification of this approach. Heavily targeted in 2020 fantasy drafts with a projected increase in playing time, he hit just two home runs and batted .268 in 58 games. It was not what fantasy managers wanted.
Still, the same reasoning behind the originally projected breakout remained intact entering 2021, and it looks like Solak is now meeting expectations. He already has a career-high seven home runs in 24 games. When trying to acquire Solak, don’t forget how much potential he showed in 2019. That promise is now coming to fruition.
Pitchers to Buy
Trevor Rogers (SP – MIA)
If Trevor Rogers had not been on people’s radars before, he certainly emerged thanks to his last start. This is because he went head-to-head with Corbin Burnes — who entered the matchup with one earned run allowed over four starts — and outdueled him.
The obvious question is, “Would we be buying too high on Rogers?” As aligned with the purpose of this article, the answer is “buy high, but not too high.” There are more bright days ahead for the young left-hander.
Rogers is now pitching to a 1.29 ERA. His excellent 34.9% strikeout rate isn’t too far ahead of last year’s 30.0% mark, which indicates that he’s not over-performing in the least. Although his ERA will likely inflate, his 2.02 FIP is also great. All told, Rogers is a key player to acquire right now.
Jose Berrios (SP – MIN)
Over the past few years, I have recommended drafting Jose Berrios so often that I had to make sure my own potential biases did not cloud the numbers. Now, almost one month into the 2021 season, the numbers speak for themselves.
Berrios has always been one of the most consistent pitchers in the game, almost always landing right around the same numbers year-in-and-year-out. There’s admittedly risk of him regressing to those numbers this season. That’s only if we ignore all of the underlying stats.
Berrios’ 32.4% strikeout rate is at a career-high while his 3.04 ERA is solid, but not particularly amazing. More importantly, his 2.22 FIP is also at a career-best, which all suggests that we are seeing a 27-year old starting pitcher hitting his stride. Buy in now before his price rises further.
Danny Duffy (SP – KC)
It’s taken quite a while, but Danny Duffy is finally back to the form in which fantasy managers — and the Kansas City Royals — invested years back. Duffy hadn’t finished a season with an ERA under 4.00 since 2017, but he’s now dominating. He has allowed one earned run through four starts and is striking out batters at a career-best rate of 10.57 per nine innings.
The easy argument against Duffy is that this reemergence won’t last. It’s also somewhat lazy. Since 2012, including his down years, Duffy never finished with an ERA over 5.00. Indeed, it wasn’t amazing, but Duffy never fully lost his ability to pitch. Now, he’s regained it. His fastball velocity is at its highest since 2016, and his FIP is an outstanding 2.09.
Someone will look to “sell high” on Duffy, but I’d have no problem buying at the inflated price.
Hitters to Sell
Keston Hiura (1B/2B – MIL)
I finally did it. I’m sad about it, but I did it. I released Keston Hiura in my re-draft league.
You’ll be hard-pressed to find someone in the industry who believed in Hiura’s bat more than the author of this column, but the numbers are so dismal that we have to not only be worried about playing time, but an all-out demotion. In terms of future development, Hiura getting sent down to the minor leagues may not be the worst outcome since it would force him out of all fantasy lineups.
The reality is that he already belongs out of our lineups. We now need to take a wait-and-see approach in case a turnaround eventually occurs.
Travis d’Arnaud (C – ATL)
Travis d’Arnaud put together essentially the perfect season in 2020, hitting nine home runs in 44 games while batting .321. Unfortunately for d’Arnaud and his fantasy managers, that spike has not carried over to 2021. As of Wednesday, he is hitting .197 with only two home runs on the year.
It appears d’Arnaud benefitted from the shortened campaign’s small sample size. He had never previously finished a season with a batting average above .268, and his career mark is only .251. A .411 BABIP (batting average on balls in-play) is most likely the culprit for the false breakout. He had previously never had a BABIP over .293.
Willi Castro (3B/SS – DET)
Whenever I form a sports prediction that impacts others, I like to differentiate from the field if possible. One of the contrarian approaches I used in 2021 was by overvaluing numbers from 2020. Why? Because most of the fantasy baseball community downplayed last season. Therefore, when digging through players who exploded in 2020, I made it a point to draft some of them at a major discount thanks to others expecting a regression.
One of these players was Willi Castro, who has promptly regressed to the point where he is no longer viable.
Hardly anyone targeted Castro despite his strong 2020. As a result, he could have been undervalued and could have been as good as he showed last season at a cheap cost. Now we know the truth: He wasn’t undervalued, and he isn’t as good as he showed. He’s now an easy sell.
Pitchers to Sell
Antonio Senzatela (SP – COL)
It’s always tricky dealing with Colorado Rockies pitchers, but Antonio Senzatela converted some into believers last year. Except for a terrible 2019 campaign, Senzatela had ERAs of 4.68, 4.38, and 3.44 in the other three of his first four seasons. For a starting pitcher in Colorado, those numbers range from absolutely acceptable to outstanding.
Unfortunately, the aforementioned terrible 2019 campaign is starting to look less like the outlier and more like the direction for Senzatela. He is currently pitching to a 5.76 ERA with the second-lowest strikeout rate (13.3%) of his career. The numbers under the surface aren’t much better. His 5.17 FIP and 4.98 xERA are both the second-worst of his career.
Without the strikeouts, and with the ERA trending back in the wrong direction, there are no signs of improvement ahead.
Taylor Widener (SP – ARI)
Brandishing an impressive 2.82 ERA, Taylor Widener doesn’t fit the mold of a sell-low candidate at first glance.
That’s the end of the good news. It all goes down from there.
Behind Widener’s excellent ERA, he sports a bloated 5.99 xERA and a 4.75 FIP. His strikeout rate is also down significantly from last year while his fastball velocity is exactly one MPH slower in 2021 than it was out of the bullpen in 2020.
All told, Widener is technically off to a good start, but his numbers are likely to catch up to him soon and drain his value entirely.
Zach Davies (SP – CHC)
Two years ago, Zach Davies pitched to a 3.55 ERA. Not bad at all. Last year, he chopped three-quarters of a run off his ERA, finishing the year at 2.73. Impressive.
Now? Davies is among the worst pitchers in the league with an absolutely pitiful 9.47 ERA, 7.92 xERA, 6.20 FIP, and 6.24 xFIP! There is absolutely nothing redeeming about anything Davies is doing on the mound, and that’s before we get to s strikeout rate back to its subpar pre-2020 levels.
It’s now becoming clear that whatever Davies did in 2020 has not translated to this new season.
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.
Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.
