Kenta Maeda has the highest FIP (6.16) and second-worst ERA (6.36) among all qualified starters.

Last season, Maeda posted a 2.73 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 11 excellent starts for the Twins. The shortened season aligned perfectly for the veteran righty, who got to exclusively face the AL and NL Central without worrying about reaching an innings wall after years of the Dodgers limiting his workload.

That dominance led drafters to select Maeda as a top-20 starter. Five starts into the season, he’s already surrendered just four fewer hits (36) and one fewer run (19) than all of last season. After allowing no more than three runs in each outing last year, he has coughed up three home runs in consecutive starts.

This is often where we’d blame the baseball gods for pulling a cruel prank in a short sample size. Yet it’s tough to shrug off Maeda’s struggled when examining the troubling trends.

First and foremost, his Statcast hard-hit rate has skyrocketed from 24.7 to 46.7%, the steepest climb of any starting pitcher. Per FanGraphs, no qualified starter generated more soft contact (28.5%) than Maeda in 2020. Considering Luis Castillo was the runner-up at 21.3%, it’s not surprising to see that mark regress to solid, but no longer elite 17.9%.

Opponents hit .086 off his four-seam fastball last season. Now they’re batting .400 against his heater. That’s far from his only concern. Maeda’s slider, the most used weapon in his arsenal, has surrendered a .773 slugging percentage. Even his lethal changeup has regressed, putting away just 17.2% of batters on two strikes after notching a 27.5% putaway rate last season.

Investors should be concerned, but not panicked. Maeda has a habit of starting slow, permitting a .339 wOBA through April over his career. He also struck out over a batter per inning in each of his five MLB seasons, so his current 7.71 K/9 should soon climb. While he hasn’t gotten the strikeouts we’re accustomed to, he’s also issued just five walks.

Drafters overpaid for two months of data, but it’d be even more foolish to give up because of one month of atypical returns. Making two starts against the Rangers and Tigers could give Maeda a path to bounce back.

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Rhys Hoskins (1B – PHI): 5.0% Walk Rate

Hoskins has six home runs in his last eight games. He has drawn five walks all season.

That’s unusual for the patient slugger, who holds a career 14.7% walk rate that has never dipped under 13.2. Such a plummet would usually sound the panic sirens, but managers in standard five-by-five leagues have no reason to complain. Although his .287 OBP is 75 points lower than his career norm, the career .240 hitter is still batting .250 with eight dingers, 14 RBIs, and 19 runs.

There’s a simple explanation. From 2017 to 2020, Hoskins swung at 39.3% of his offerings. This season, as of Wednesday night, he’s offering at 47.5% of pitches seen.

While that added aggressiveness had led to more strikeouts, he’s making his contact count. In his first season back from Tommy John surgery, Hoskins has the highest hard-hit (55.9%) and barrel (18.6%) rates of his career. He’s hitting more fly balls, but far fewer pop-ups.

What should fantasy managers make of this uncustomary start? A rise in walk and dip in strikeouts usually beckons trouble. On the other hand, Hoskins could mount a 40-homer campaign if he continues to swing more often and with more authority. Whether these early trends regress to the means, investors still appeared to have snagged a potent slugger at a discount.

Trevor Rogers (SP – MIA): 17.6% Swinging-Strike Rate

Rogers has the fourth-highest swinging-strike rate of all qualified pitchers. You might be familiar with the first three names: Jacob deGrom, Corbin Burnes, and Shane Bieber.

Along with that elite trio, Rogers also trails Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Trevor Bauer, Joe Musgrove, and Tyler Mahle for ninth in strikeout rate (34.9%). These punchouts have led to a 1.29 ERA and 2.00 FIP in five starts from the southpaw. He’s blanked the opposition in three of those outings.

Since he’s in the presence of such elite company, is Rogers a top-flight option moving forward? The K upside at least isn’t in dispute. Although Rogers registered a 6.11 ERA last season, he flashed promise by recording 39 strikeouts in 28 innings. He now has 38 in 28 innings this year.

He’s also relinquished just one barrel, a feat matched only by Brandon Woodruff, Brady Singer, and Marlins teammate Sandy Alcantara. Missing bats and avoiding crisp contact is an ideal combination for the 23-year-old.

If there’s any concern, it’s his ability to find the strike zone consistently. Rogers now has 23 career walks — including four during his 2021 debut — in 58 innings. He’s thrown a first-pitch strike to 55.0% of batters faced; only nine qualified starters have fallen behind more.

While it’s too soon to anoint Rogers a fantasy ace, he’s a borderline top-30 starter and, as opined by Mario Mergola, a potential “buy-high” option. With that said, keep his limited track record, high walk rate, and likely innings cap in mind if someone offers a star hitter or under-performing ace.

Victor Robles (OF – WAS): 18.8% Infield-Fly Rate

It’s getting increasingly tougher to give Robles the benefit of the doubt.

The former top prospect is only 23 years old, and he amassed 17 homers and 28 stolen bases as a rookie. Many drafters used this reasoning to give Washington’s center fielder a mulligan for last season’s .220/.293/.315 slash line, once again marred by ugly Statcast metrics.

He’s pulling off the inverse of Hoskins’ April to horrid results. An optimist will point out the youngster’s 12.0% walk rate — a major development if he wants to work his way back to the leadoff role — and decreased 22.7% strikeout rate this season. He’s swinging less than ever before and most notably not chasing pitches off the plate.

These would all be great news if he wasn’t still making terrible contact.

Despite this improved approach, Robles is hitting .206 with zero homers in 75 plate appearances. While his 25.0% hard-hit rate represents personal progress, it still resides in MLB’s bottom-fifth percentile. And most troubling of all, the young speedster keeps hitting pop-ups.

Given his limited power, Robles should utilize his legs by putting the ball in play on the ground. Instead, far too many of his batted balls are near automatic outs. Put in other terms, Robles should not have a higher launch angle than Hoskins.

Perhaps managers could cope if he was parlaying those walks into steals, but Robles has one this season. The Nationals have understandably banished him to the bottom of the order, providing him with fewer opportunities to run. Put it all together, and he’s not helping anyone’s fantasy roster. He’s droppable in re-draft leagues with three starting outfield slots.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.