DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Sunday (4/25)
As the playoffs approach, injuries have ravaged the league, and multiple star players will miss tonight’s action. However, as any smart DFS player knows, injury leads to value. As such, we’ve got a bunch of solid options on this slate.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Sunday’s DraftKings slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.
Most Value Per Dollar
Tonight’s four-game slate will tip-off at 7 p.m. ET. Every game has a betting total above 220 — CLE/WAS (226.5), MIL/ATL (228), IND/ORL (224), and SAC/GSW (230.5). That means we don’t have a game to avoid, and you can find value all over the slate.
On the injury front, the Hawks will continue to play without Trae Young, and the Kings will have to play without De’Aaron Fox. The Cavaliers won’t have Collin Sexton, either. Elsewhere, the Pacers remain without Myles Turner, and Domantas Sabonis’ status remains to be seen.
Below is a list of the top-eight players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary, ranked in order of how much they’ll cost you.
Jarrett Allen (CLE) $7,100
The Cavaliers will play the Wizards tonight, and Washington surrenders the third-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to centers. With the sky-high total and no Sexton, Allen and his compatriots provide a ton of value in this matchup.
Andrew Wiggins (GSW) $7,000
I’m targeting quite a few players in the SAC/GSW matchup, and Wiggins is the most expensive of the high-value options. The Kings allow the third-most DKPPG to power forwards, and our model projects Wiggins for 35.9 points — almost exactly 5x value. Wiggins has hit 5x value against this price in two of his last three games.
Kevin Love (CLE) $6,600
Love has looked solid alongside Allen, and he has a good chunk of fantasy value on this slate. He hasn’t hit 5x value against this price in a few games, but the high-scoring, fast-paced matchup will allow him to turn things around.
Delon Wright (SAC) $4,900
With Fox sidelined, Wright’s value skyrockets. The Kings haven’t needed him to do much when Fox plays — he most recently scored just 3.5 DK points against the Timberwolves — but he had posted three-straight games with 28-plus DK points in his prior three outings. This isn’t a great position-based matchup, but the extra minutes will be enough for Wright to hit 5x value.
Jordan Poole (GSW) $4,700
Poole has averaged 30 DKPPG over his last two games (6.4x value), and he’s in line for another high-scoring matchup against the Kings. Sacramento allows the second-most DKPPG to point guards, where Poole plays 33% of his minutes, and the third-most to shooting guards, where he plays 54%.
Gary Harris (ORL) $4,200
The Magic have had a rough two games. They most recently suffered a 35-point loss to the Pelicans, but the matchup against a banged-up Pacers squad is a fantastic spot for them to turn things around. Harris went for 5x value against this price in two of his last five games, and it should be another ceiling game for him tonight.
Doug McDermott (IND) $3,900
McDermott returned to the lineup on Saturday, and he went for 21 DK points with Turner and Sabonis sidelined. If both of them remain sidelined, look for McDermott to exploit Orlando’s defense, which gives up the second-most DKPPG to small forwards and a league-average figure to power forwards.
Isaac Okoro (CLE) $3,600
Okoro, the last of the three Cavaliers I’m targeting tonight, should step up with Sexton sidelined. Okoro only went for 15.3 DK points in his last game, in which he played 34 minutes, but the Wizards are a fantastic team to get right against — they allow the fourth-most DKPPG to shooting guards.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Stephen Curry (GSW) $10,500: Curry is a fantastic high-upside option against the Kings, as we should see a ton of points scored tonight. However, I wouldn’t stack him with Poole, and you’re best off committing to only one of Golden State’s point guards.
- Malcolm Brogdon (IND) $8,700: Brogdon will have to pick up a ton of slack if both Sabonis and Turner continue to miss time. Look for him to exploit Orlando’s vulnerable defense that allows the fifth-most DKPPG to point guards.
- Khris Middleton (MIL) $8,000: Middleton is the cheapest of Milwaukee’s big three, and he’s a great option if you’re looking to get some exposure to their matchup against the Hawks. Atlanta fields a league-average unit against small forwards.
Notable Players to Fade
- Russell Westbrook (WAS) $11,000: Westbrook is far too pricy tonight. The matchup is a great one to target, but you’d be better off saving the cap space and going with Bradley Beal instead.
- Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL) $8,100: Bogdanovic has to pick up a bunch of work with Trae Young out, but this price is way too steep for him. He has been having a rock-solid few games lately, but I would pivot away from him for tonight.
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