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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy: Friday (4/23)

Apr 23, 2021

There’s no reason to believe Xavier Tillman will put up anything less than 6x value against Portland tonight.

Happy Friday everyone! We have seven games on the slate tonight, slightly lower than the average Friday night but still a moderately sized set of games to navigate. Let’s dive in.

Check out today’s NBA Tip Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

As I noted last week, the final month of the NBA regular season is always chaotic as teams jockey for position in the NBA playoffs or, perhaps more conspicuously, the draft lottery. Teams will inevitably play it safe with injuries and look to the future as the regular season nears its end. My best advice is to view each individual matchup to see who is, and more importantly, isn’t expected to play at each position. At this point of the season, slates are loaded with value. Every player that I’m highlighting below comes in at a sub-$5,000 salary, allowing you to pay up basically wherever you want tonight.

Things are bound to change throughout the day, so it’s vital to keep up with all the NBA news of the day leading up to tipoff. You should also monitor point spreads and expected point totals over at BettingPros to find the best matchups.

Xavier Tillman (MEM) $4,600
While Jonas Valanciunas remains out with a concussion, Tillman is set to benefit again. He’s averaged over 37 DK points over the last two games with Valanciunas out and there’s no reason to believe he’ll put up anything less than 6x value against Portland tonight.

Facundo Campazzo (DEN) $4,400
The Nuggets have plenty of minutes available in the backcourt now that Jamaal Murray and Monte Morris are out. Newly acquired Austin Rivers may be tempting but I prefer Campazzo. He’s fresh off a 26 DK point game and could easily replicate that tonight, which would pay off as 6x value on his salary.

Davis Bertans (WAS) $4,300
Bertans has topped 30 DK points in back-to-back games and has no signs of slowing down tonight. Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija are both out tonight against an Oklahoma City team that’s been bleeding points to power forwards over the last month, giving Bertans incredible upside.

Jordan Poole (GS) $4,000
Damion Lee isn’t a DFS stud but he has been getting plenty of minutes recently. However, he’s now sidelined due to COVID-19 protocols. Poole is fresh off a 32 DK point outing Wednesday but saw his salary drop by $200 tonight, making him an excellent value.

DeAndre Jordan (BKN) $3,900
Nicolas Claxton remains out due to COVID-19 protocols and we certainly can’t trust Blake Griffin in 2021. Jordan put up 26 DK points his last time out and could put up a repeat performance tonight against a Celtics team that’s surrendered the seventh-most DK points to centers over the last seven games.

P.J. Dozier (DEN) $3,800
As mentioned earlier, there’s plenty of opportunity in Denver’s backcourt right now. Dozier has averaged over 28 minutes and 24 DK points over his last four games. That equates to over 6x value on his $3,800 salary tonight.

Daniel Gafford (WAS) $3,800
I may be missing something, but I can’t understand why Gafford’s salary keeps falling. He’s averaged nearly 30 DK points over his last four games, which is ridiculous value as he takes on an Oklahoma City team that’s given up the third-most DK points to centers over the last seven games. 

Yogi Ferrell (LAC) $3,700
Ferrell just signed a 10-day contract with the Clippers earlier in the week and immediately put up 21 DK points. He’s in a great spot tonight against Houston, a team that’s given up the third-most DK points to point guards over the last 15 games. His value is even better if Rajon Rondo is sidelined again with his wrist injury.

Brandon Goodwin (ATL) $3,400
We just found out that Trae Young is set to miss time with his ankle injury. Goodwin is in line to enter the starting lineup again in his absence. He averaged 34 DK points in the two games Young missed earlier this month, an incredible 10x value on his salary tonight.

Cedi Osman (CLE) $3,300
Taurean Prince is undergoing season-ending ankle surgery and somebody is going to soak up his minutes. There’s no guarantee that it’s Osman but he’s one of the top candidates. He hasn’t played in the past four games, so he’s a very risky play, but he also put up 31 DK points in one of his most recent outings and could hit that ceiling again tonight.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $11,000: Westbrook is on a historic pace, putting up at least 56 DK points and averaging nearly 64 DK points over his last ten games. Now he takes on the Thunder team that’s given up the most DK points to point guards over the past seven games. Don’t overthink this one.
  • Damian Lillard (POR) $$9,500: Lillard just returned from a three-game absence due to a hamstring injury and immediately played 37 minutes on Wednesday. It wasn’t his best outing at just over 38 DK points but I expect him to bounce back tonight and put up a fantasy performance closer to his 48.4 DK point season average.
  • Paul George (LAC) $9,300: George has thrived with Kawhi Leonard sidelined recently, averaging over 57 DK points in the last four games he’s played without Leonard. He should flourish again tonight against a terrible Houston team while Kawhi remains out.
  • Clint Capela (ATL) $8,800: As of this writing, Capela is listed as questionable. That being said, Trae Young is out and Atlanta is fighting for the number four seed in the East. Capela has averaged nearly 53 DK points over his last ten games, making him a top play tonight.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Jayson Tatum (BOS) $10,000: Tatum put up a monster game against Golden State earlier in the week but has also produced less than 40 DK points in two of his last four games. He’s too volatile for me tonight given his five-figure salary.
  • Terry Rozier (CHA) $8,700: Rozier struggled last night in what should’ve been a good matchup with the Bulls. Now he takes on a Cavs team that’s given up the third-fewest DK points to his position over the past 15 games on the second night of a back-to-back set, which is enough to keep me away.
  • Kemba Walker (BOS) $7,500: There’s a strong chance the Walker sits tonight on the second half of Boston’s back-to-back set. Even if he doesn’t, his salary is getting a little too high for me given his up and down production this season.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Aaron Larson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @aalarson.

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