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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Monday (4/12)

Apr 12, 2021

Donovan Mitchell is the top play of the day.

I rarely say this, but I love this slate. Something about the pricing has me giddy about creating a lineup because there’s so much value out there. I have a lot I want to say, so let’s go ahead and get started!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

Look at all the big-name players sitting! We’re missing LeBron James, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, and Anthony Davis. That doesn’t even include a laundry list of players who are questionable, leaving a ton of value on the board. That means every position is stacked, and we actually only have two centers in this section! That’s a rare sight from me, but it’s a good indicator of how loaded every other position is.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Donovan Mitchell (UTH) $9,200:
I thought about squeezing DM into my studs section, but I wanted to get his name in here as my top pick of the day. This guy has been absolutely ridiculous recently, and he should go nuts here with no Mike Conley. The MVP candidate has at least 49 DraftKings points in nine of his last 13 games while averaging 46 fantasy points per game in that span. We love that in a matchup like this, and we’ll discuss that more later on!

Bruce Brown (BKN) $4,800:
It sounds like Brooklyn will be without Kyrie Irving, LaMarcus Aldridge, and James Harden. That means Brown will assume the role he played about a month ago, playing 30-plus minutes in a starting position. If you look at the 20 games BB has played at least 25 minutes, he’s averaging over 28 fantasy points per game.

Andre Drummond (LAL) $6,800:
This price tag is weird. Drummond has clearly been limited in his return to action but playing 27 minutes over the weekend is a good indicator that he’s ready for 30-plus here. In a role like that earlier this season, Drum averaged 45 DraftKings points per game. That’s the production of a $9K player, and Dre is obviously a huge discount at $6,800 here.

Talen Horton-Tucker (LAL) $5,300:
Speaking of discounts, what is DraftKings thinking here! THT has stepped into a monster role with LeBron James and Anthony Davis out, scoring at least 26 fantasy points in four straight games. That monster role led to a climax of 41 fantasy points in his most recent outing, and we have to believe his role will only rise the more the Lakers realize this is one of their best players right now.

Eric Bledsoe (NOR) $6,400:
The Pelicans are currently missing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Josh Hart, and Lonzo Ball. That’s left this backcourt extremely thin, with Bledsoe averaging 27 DK points per game across 34 minutes a night over his last 10 games played. That’s the guy we loved in his Suns and Clippers days, and he should be able to continue that against a Kings club that owns the worst defensive rating in the NBA.

Joe Ingles (UTH) $5,700:
We foreshadowed this matchup earlier on, so let’s get into it! Utah gets to face Washington, who ranks 27th in defensive efficiency while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA. That’s great for a guy who’s looking at an expanded role, with Ingles averaging 31 DraftKings points per game in his 13 starts this season. We expect him to resume that role with Conley sitting.

Richaun Holmes (SAC) $7,300:
This guy isn’t in the running for Most Improved Player because of how bad the Kings are, but he probably should be. The big man has scored at least 30 fantasy points in 18 of his last 21 games, generating a 39-point average in that span. We can’t overlook that from a $7,300 player, especially against a 28th-ranked Pelicans defense.

Ricky Rubio (MIN) $5,100:
This price is just too low. Since returning on February 21, Ricky is averaging 30.3 DK points per game. That’s a rare sight from a $5K player, and it makes it hard to understand why he’s so cheap. They might be worried about D’Angelo Russell returning, but Rubio has 68 combined fantasy points over the last two games.

Kent Bazemore (GSW) $4,300:
With Kelly Oubre Jr.sitting out here, Bazemore should get another start. In this role on Saturday, Baze collected 30 DK points across 32 minutes of play. It was his second time scoring at least 28 fantasy points in his last three games, and he’s always proven to be productive when given the opportunity. In the five games he’s played at least 25 minutes, Baze is averaging 31 fantasy points per game.

Josh Richardson (DAL) $4,600:
Richardson is a regular in these articles, and his price has actually been dropping! The simple fact is, he should be between $5,500 and $6K! We say that because he’s averaging 26 DK points per game across 34 minutes a night over his last 18 outings. You’d think he was terrible recently but dropping at least 28 DK points in three of his last four games makes this price tag even more bizarre.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) $10,500: The Timberwolves are obviously terrible, but it’s certainly not this guy’s fault. KAT actually has at least 53 fantasy points in nine-straight games, averaging 57 DK points per game in that span. We love that with the Nets surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers while ranked 25th in total defense.
  • De’Aaron Fox (SAC) $9,300: People are overlooking just how big of a step this kid has taken this season. Over his last 23 games played, Fox is providing 46 DK points per game across 36 minutes a night. That’s bad news for a Pelicans team that owns a 25th OPRK against opposing point guards this year.
  • Kevin Durant (BKN) $9,000: This is my favorite play of the day. We talked about how Harden, Irving, and Aldridge are all out, leaving Durant to feast. That means he’ll be looking at 20-30 shots and a 30 percent usage rate, making him impossible to fade at this price. Not to mention, Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive efficiency and certainly won’t slow down the former MVP.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Ben Simmons (PHI) $8,200: This dude is struggling right now. He actually hasn’t reached 40 fantasy points in 11-straight outings, which is the minimum you’d need from a player in this price range. He’s also averaging just 31 fantasy points per game in that span, which is horrific from an $8,200 player.
  • James Johnson (NOR) $5,500: JJ was a sneaky play this time last week, but his role is falling off. Both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are back now, forcing Johnson back into bench duties. That’s held him under 24 DK points in four-straight games, and that’ll only drop with these usage hogs back in the fold.
  • Tim Hardaway Jr. (DAL) $5,000: THJ is struggling with a bench role himself, unable to produce with Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic swallowing up so many touches. That’s led to him scoring 25 or fewer DK points in six of his last seven games, averaging just 22 fantasy points per game in that span.

Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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