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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Monday (4/19)

Apr 19, 2021

I was filling out lineups yesterday, and seven of the top-10 guards in terms of pricing were all ruled out. That just shows you what type of environment we’re dealing with, because teams no longer care about your fantasy investments. Numerous payers are getting rested every night, and even more are sidelined due to injury. It’s causing chaos, but we’re going to try our best to project out exactly what will happen!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Check out today’s NBA Tip-Off from DraftKings >>

Most Value Per Dollar 

We’ve had some crazy slates recently, and this one is definitely going to fall into that category. Almost every single one of our recommendations is there because of injuries or resting, and that’s going to become commonplace for the final month of the season. Guessing these things a day ahead of time can be tough, but we can bank on past results to predict future outcomes. That’s one reason why we have a ton of point guards in this section because it tends to be the most predictable position out there! These guys handle the ball every time, and they’re one of the few positions that don’t rely purely on scoring.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Joe Ingles (UTH) $6,200
If you’ve been reading my articles, you knew this was coming. Ingles is always a fade when he’s a reserve, but he’s always a great value when he starts. We expect that to happen here with Donovan Mitchell out, and we love that Ingles averages 32 DraftKings points per game as a starter. Losing Mitchell should force Ingles into more ball-handling duties, and that’s big news after his 14 assists on Saturday.

Killian Hayes (DET) $3,700
Hayes finally saw his minutes tick up — he has played at least 25 in each of his last two games. More importantly, he’s averaging over 29 DK points per game in those two outings and might get more run with so many Pistons players resting regularly. We certainly don’t mind that he faces a 21st-ranked Cavaliers defense either, especially at just $3,700!

Coby White (CHI) $5,400
White has started the last two games without Zach LaVine, and we can’t overlook the fact that he ranks second on the team with a 25 percent usage rate when he’s out. That’s led to some big games, with Coby combing for 69.1 fantasy points in the last two games without LaVine. He’s actually averaging over 30 DK points per game in the 35 games he’s played at least 28 minutes, and that should be his floor here.

Facundo Campazzo (DEN) $4,700
With Jamal Murray out for the rest of the season and Monte Morris dealing with an injury of his own, Campazzo should get a start and all the minutes he can handle. If you look at the four games he’s played at least 28 minutes, Facu is averaging over 26 fantasy points per game. That’s a superb total from such an affordable player, and it’s just hard to overlook a guy who’s getting the biggest role of his career.

Bojan Bogdanovic (UTH) $5,800
Many people might think Mike Conley takes on the most usage with DM out, but it actually allows Bogey to fire up shots at will. That’s evident when you see that he has at least 13 shots in 13 of his last 14 games, averaging over 28 fantasy points per game in that span. The Lakers look like a tough defense on the surface, but they’ve been a shell of themselves since their superstars got injured.

Darius Bazley (OKC) $6,400
Bazley ranks second on the team in usage, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford out of the picture, and he should continue to be one of the focal points of this offense. That has led to Baze scoring at least 29 DK points in three of his four games since returning from an injury of his own. We absolutely adore this matchup, too, and we’ll discuss that more later on.

Ja Morant (MEM) $7,200
Ja has too much upside to be this cheap. He’s scored at least 35 fantasy points in over half of his games this season, and that’s hard to overlook from a $7K player. Denver is not necessarily a scary matchup, either, as they rank 15th in defensive efficiency. Morant showed that in their one matchup earlier this year — he dropped  35 DK points despite shooting just 5-of-16 from the field.

Theo Maledon (OKC) $5,600
Let’s kick things off by talking about this stellar matchup. Washington currently ranks 27th in defensive efficiency while playing at the NBA’s fastest pace. That makes them the best matchup in fantasy basketball, so we have to love the opposing point guard against them. Maledon is just that, averaging over 25 DK points per game across his last 15 fixtures.

Brook Lopez (MIL) $5,000
Lopez is a regular in this section, and he continues to be priced way too low. We’re talking about a guy who’s averaging 27 DK points per game over the last month. That makes this price tag hard to understand, and Deandre Ayton is probably the worst defender on this Suns’ starting unit.

Daniel Gafford (WAS) $4,000
Gafford has been a per-minute beast throughout his career, and he’s finally getting the run we’ve been hoping for. Since joining the Wiz, Gafford is averaging 27 DK points per game in less than 19 minutes a night. He got all the way up to 26 minutes on Friday, and it’s scary to think how good he could be at that rate if he continues to see a workload like that.

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $11,000: Westbrook is the most expensive player in DFS right now, and he’s earned every bit of this lofty price tag. He’s got at least 56 DraftKings points in 18 of his last 20 games en route to a 61-point average in that span. You better believe that Russ will be hungry against OKC, too, the team he spent most of his career with.
  • Joel Embiid (PHI) $10,700: Embiid is one of the frontrunners for MVP, and it’s no surprise when you see his fantasy production. He’s actually scored at least 39 fantasy points in all but two games this season, averaging over 53 fantasy points per game. That makes him hard to avoid, with Golden State ranked second in pace and having one of the worst center rotations in the NBA.
  • Jimmy Butler (MIA) $9,600: Butler has been flirting with triple-doubles regularly and should be about $500 more with his production. He’s scored at least 35 DK points in 33 of his last 35 games, providing 22.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 2.1 steals a game in that span. We certainly don’t anticipate a 25th-ranked Rockets defense to slow that down.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Bobby Portis (MIL) $5,600: With Giannis Antetokounmpo back, Portis is back to bench duties. That actually led to him dropping just 7.3 DK points across nine minutes on Saturday, a terrifying total from someone so pricey.
  • Montrezl Harrell (LAL) $5,600: Harrell can be a fantasy monster when given the minutes, but now that he has to battle Andre Drummond and Marc Gasol for playing time, he doesn’t get enough. Over his last four games played, Trez is averaging just 18 DK points per game in 20 minutes a night. Just use this salary elsewhere.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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